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We helped each other! Thanks!

Here you didn't take crits into account, as per your note, but I think your logic is sound about the rest. I just expressed the same logic in a more analytical fashion.

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You're right about "2" and "3". In these you apply full dmg (distributing hits and crits proportionately) either on the first or second attack because you know either the first or the 2nd attack was a hit or crit with a successful prone. About "1" I still think that you calculate dpr normally...

I used different values, but I think it ends up being the same, I mean, the values just help visualizing the thinking behind the results.

My preliminary thoughts about your case are the following: The chance of proning an opponent on an unarmed strike (UnStrAtk) equals the chance to get a hit plus the chance to get a crit (that is, the chance to get a non miss on an unarmed strike) (1-MissC/UnStrAtk) times the chance to get a...

I believe I can. Give me some time and I'll give it to you. Can you tell me the chance of proning the opponent? I'll consider 50% but if it's different, tell me. Also, do you want the formula or the results? If you want the results pure and simple, I'll need the monk's stats and the opponent's...

Well, your actions aren't that dependent on your opponents decisions, your reactions, on the other hand. But, anyway, I guess we reached the end of our arguments about this subject of reaction and its inclusion on dpr estimates.

Ok, if a guesstimate is what you want just add the dmg per attack times your guesstimate once more to get the DPR (reaction AoO included). That works too. That arcane trickster reaction attack is a very nice idea, thanks for giving that example. However, it's quite different to an AoO because...

That's a good question. The goal was to make a more or less precise estimate on how much all these different factor increase DPR (no reactions). For instance, is it better or worse to make a power attack when I score a hit rolling 10+ in a d20? Is it better or worse to use Hexblade's Curse...

Well, that's why I made my calculations on a turn basis instead of a round basis. I calculated just the DPR (no reactions), as someone suggested above, or DPT. The name doesn't matter, really, as long as what it means is understood.

Well, I can estimate the odds of getting an additional attack from the GWF bonus action attack. The fact is that the odds of an attack of opportunity does not depend on an decision of mine, that is my main concern, whereas the odds of me making an additional bonus action attack is solely a...

Well, I can't estimate the AoO odds when using a Polearm Mastery build, it's too dependent on the enemies you're facing and enemies' decisions.

Damage per Round Ok, but isn't damage per turn ("DPT") a better term? Because round would also include reaction attacks, while turn would only include Attack Action attacks and Bonus Action attacks.

This is a long text, and I'm not a native english speaker, so mistakes are bound to happen. Having said that, I wrote this with care and attention. Hope the form doesn't make the content worse. Study on calculating odds and Mean Returns in D&D5ed. -Attack odds The term “attack odds” is a...