D&D 3E/3.5 3.5e Publishing Models in a 4e world

[Khuxan]

Despite all the people that say they will continue to play 3.5 temporarily or permanently come June this year, EN Publishing's sales have dropped by 80%* and I assume other publishers have suffered similar drops. This has made me wonder - presumably some 3.5 market will remain, even if it's nowhere near as large as the 4e market.

Will the standard for-sale ebook remain viable? EN Publishing is not finding War of the Burning Sky profitable*. If an influential publishing company with loads of free advertising can't move enough of its products, are more focused, consumer-empowering measures like the ransom model or patron model going to be more feasible?

Already, Greg Stolze is using the ransom model and Wolfgang Baur is using the patron model to make money. Given releasing a 3.5 ebook was never particularly profitable, and demand will soon drop off significantly, I think a new model is needed.

Do other ENWorlders agree? I think the advantages of a patron model - getting large amounts of money from big fans, shaping a product to the needs of your consumers, and flexibility - are going to make it much more attractive as the number of 3.5 buyers drops off. However, I have no real knowledge of or experience with the publisher side of the equation, so that's why I'm asking you lot.

* If I remember correctly.

 

[Spell]

If an influential publishing company with loads of free advertising can't move enough of its products, are more focused, consumer-empowering measures like the ransom model or patron model going to be more feasible?

as far as i'm concerned, i would really have to admire the previous work of an author A LOT, if i buy his books for systems that i don't plan to use. and/ or, as in the case of mr. baur's gorgon module, it has to give me the chance to get more than a simple module/ rulebook (in that case, i would find the essays interesting).

unless you use the 3e ruleset, what you are buying, effectively, is the idea.

that is risky. you have to compete with years of TSR modules and supplements at 5$ each. you have to compete with tons of free sources of RPG related ideas online. and you still have to design whatever the product deatures for a (let's face it) quite rule heavy system.

the patron model is the only way to go, i think. you can't assume anymore that just because it's 3e, it will sell. there's too much stuff out there that is interesting and grabbing, both if you want old school and if you want something different.

especially if a publishers pdfs are not selling dirty cheap (no more than 5$), it's going to be hard to move out of the thinking chair and into the market.

 

[Vascant]

I honestly have not heard enough to determine if the entire market is changing.. While I have not really read any of the "War of the Burning Sky", I think just the timing was very bad for the series and then have to compete with Paizo's 4th AP (Rise of the RuneLords) on top of that. I don't publish but I do develop d20 software and sales haven't dropped since the 4e announcement beyond the normal periods that are slow (holidays).

 

[jdrakeh]

Well, for 3.5 D&D I have pretty much all of the products that I need, currently. I still continue to buy 3.5-compatible OGL products, though. And, yes, I do think that 3.5 will remain my edition of choice for a while. That said, I'm currently in the mood for high verisimilitude, low magic, fantasy -- which means that I'm gearing up to play HarnMaster.

I do think that a new publishing model would be good -- I'd like to see more publishers offer discounted PDF products (somehow, the whole 'PDF costs the same as a hardcover book' model doesn't seem like a good idea to me) or POD books. I buy lots of each, though only because of the typical associated discount -- which should always be there IMHO, as both POD and PDF ditribution cut publisher overhead by significant margins. There is no ghood reason why publishers shouldn't pass at least part of that savings on.

 

[DaveMage]

Until 4E is out, I don't think we can answer this question.

If 4E is a hit, then 3.5 will be a tough sell.

If 4E tanks, then 3.5 will be much more viable.

If 4E is so-so, well, ask again in September.

 

[Whizbang Dustyboots]

Having participated in a previous Open Design project (Empire of the Ghouls), I think it's a good model, but I don't think that just any old creator could get sufficient patrons. It's also not a cheap model for customers, which will further limit how many products the market can support at one time.

That said, there are a number of creators whom I would definitely support on an Open Design project or two, if they were so inclined.

But really, I'd want them to be 4E ...

 

[Arnwyn]

Do other ENWorlders agree? I think the advantages of a patron model - getting large amounts of money from big fans, shaping a product to the needs of your consumers, and flexibility - are going to make it much more attractive as the number of 3.5 buyers drops off.

I don't think this is unreasonable. In fact, it makes sense.

I suspect most of EN Publishing's customers are also those most interested in 4e, which puts them in a tough place (since Paizo is doing more than swimmingly, according to recent posts by Mona et al).

OTOH, my group is sticking with 3.5, and we haven't gone anywhere near EN Publishing's stuff (PDFs suck), and while huge adventure path fans, wouldn't touch War of the Burning Sky with a ten-foot pole. But Paizo (and little less so Goodman) are now getting a fair chunk of change from me - more than in the past, even.

It seems Baur's model is reasonably successful, and it actually looks very interesting even to me - someone who thinks $25 for a PDF near-ludicrous, has absolutely zero interest in contributing to the design process (just let me buy the adventure, dammit!), and is confused on the whole "patron" thing and how it relates to getting the older products. And yeah - I'm still intrigued! I do think, though, that being a 'big name' is extremely important with this sort of model (and may also near-guarantee success in the process).

 

[Erik Mona]

Despite all the people that say they will continue to play 3.5 temporarily or permanently come June this year, EN Publishing's sales have dropped by 80%* and I assume other publishers have suffered similar drops.

Not even close.

Our sales are up.

--Erik Mona
Publisher
Paizo Publishing, LLC

 

[DaveMage]

Not even close.

Our sales are up.

--Erik Mona
Publisher
Paizo Publishing, LLC

Excellent!!!!

 

[jdrakeh]

Excellent!!!!

Seconded. It also occurred to me this is the first time ever that an older edition of D&D has been legally opened to support by third parties during the transition to a new edition. This is, frankly, an exciting time