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4 years of 5E on Amazon: same old same old
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<blockquote data-quote="Zardnaar" data-source="post: 7495767" data-attributes="member: 6716779"><p>A lot of what ifs and for example we don't even know if they are using the same metrics they used 18 years ago to estimate the numbers of players in the late 90's/2000, I remember a figure of 6 million being thrown around but 5 or 6 million is close enough not to nit pick over it. </p><p></p><p> The 1 million estimate I have seen comes from Dancey, another estimate at Pax East 2014 IIRC was 500k+ 3.0, 250-350k 3.5 so its not much lower than Danceys (and Pathfinder estimates are 250k circa 2014).</p><p></p><p> We do know the size of the RPG market now and in 2013 (estimates anyway) and we also know Paizo was gertting 12.7 million in 2012 so peak Pathfinder they probably got most of the money in the RPG market. </p><p></p><p> 5E could get there on around 500k-1 million units sold per year (maybe less). That is everything DMG, adventures, PHB etc. Even with the low number of 500k over 4 years that is still 2 million units and if half of them are PHB they would cross or equal the "biggest selling D&D of all time threshold". We know that the PHB is basically the biggest selling 5E item and I think peak years could maybe beat an average 5E year what makes 5E good is its had 4 good years in a row, the peak years were 1983 and 2000, drop off was severe apparently (300k 1st month 3.0, 30% loss in 1984, bankrupt 85, 81 and 82 were not that big comparatively). </p><p></p><p> Beating 3.5 and 4E is also no great achievement in D&D terms all of them apart from OD&D do that. </p><p></p><p> If they were selling in the numbers you provided I think the PHB would be higher than what it is atm on Amazon and even with my 500k-1 million units of everything (50% perhaps being PHB) you would still get to 1-2 million PHB sold and 5-10 million using your 5-1 ratio with the disparity perhaps being the starter set, free downlaods, online games on VTTs; D&D Beyond and AL making up the rest (or all my estimates are completely wrong). Hell they may have used the 5-1 attach rate for the free downloads they may have had half a million or a million of them who knows (wotc has a guess I suppose). I'm guessing they got more than 250k which was what the playtest got. </p><p></p><p> But yeah the actual sales figures could be a lot lower and they could still fit into the numbers they have provided. I don't think they are beating the D&D spike year or years (1983 maybe 2000) but overall its believable IMHO. </p><p></p><p> Bestseller doesn't really mean what it used to and companies try and spin it in the best terms they can plausibly get away with. I highly doubt they have sold triple the lifetime sales of the best selling D&Ds of all time over 4 years vs a 10 year product cycle. People see bestseller and get carried away IMHO. I think we can say D&D 100% is doing very well, and about 90% it is doing the best consistently overall. The PHB is not in the top 100 that often except for short term sales spikes via discounts. You have to make some very large assumptions and start playing with some very silly numbers to get up into 3 million PHB sold (averaged out over 4 years its something like double the size of the RPG market just with PHB and Amazon has 2 spikes each year with the 5E adventure releases). </p><p></p><p> I think those 2 big spikes each year+ consistent sales of the PHB+ sales of everything ( all the other books, older releases+ online stuff) else easily accounts for what WotC is claiming and some saner numbers. 1-2 million PHB sold would explain the D&D numbers for example and we don't know how many of the numbers they are claiming comes from online games and free downloads. If that counts for 50% of the players for example it would indicate probably something in the 1-1.5 range.</p><p></p><p> Note anything over a million is great in D&D terms, only 2 editions have done that maybe 3 if you count 3.0 and 3.5 as one edition (and maybe Pathfinder is needed to cross that as well depending on how accurate Dancey is and what he counted as 3E).</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Zardnaar, post: 7495767, member: 6716779"] A lot of what ifs and for example we don't even know if they are using the same metrics they used 18 years ago to estimate the numbers of players in the late 90's/2000, I remember a figure of 6 million being thrown around but 5 or 6 million is close enough not to nit pick over it. The 1 million estimate I have seen comes from Dancey, another estimate at Pax East 2014 IIRC was 500k+ 3.0, 250-350k 3.5 so its not much lower than Danceys (and Pathfinder estimates are 250k circa 2014). We do know the size of the RPG market now and in 2013 (estimates anyway) and we also know Paizo was gertting 12.7 million in 2012 so peak Pathfinder they probably got most of the money in the RPG market. 5E could get there on around 500k-1 million units sold per year (maybe less). That is everything DMG, adventures, PHB etc. Even with the low number of 500k over 4 years that is still 2 million units and if half of them are PHB they would cross or equal the "biggest selling D&D of all time threshold". We know that the PHB is basically the biggest selling 5E item and I think peak years could maybe beat an average 5E year what makes 5E good is its had 4 good years in a row, the peak years were 1983 and 2000, drop off was severe apparently (300k 1st month 3.0, 30% loss in 1984, bankrupt 85, 81 and 82 were not that big comparatively). Beating 3.5 and 4E is also no great achievement in D&D terms all of them apart from OD&D do that. If they were selling in the numbers you provided I think the PHB would be higher than what it is atm on Amazon and even with my 500k-1 million units of everything (50% perhaps being PHB) you would still get to 1-2 million PHB sold and 5-10 million using your 5-1 ratio with the disparity perhaps being the starter set, free downlaods, online games on VTTs; D&D Beyond and AL making up the rest (or all my estimates are completely wrong). Hell they may have used the 5-1 attach rate for the free downloads they may have had half a million or a million of them who knows (wotc has a guess I suppose). I'm guessing they got more than 250k which was what the playtest got. But yeah the actual sales figures could be a lot lower and they could still fit into the numbers they have provided. I don't think they are beating the D&D spike year or years (1983 maybe 2000) but overall its believable IMHO. Bestseller doesn't really mean what it used to and companies try and spin it in the best terms they can plausibly get away with. I highly doubt they have sold triple the lifetime sales of the best selling D&Ds of all time over 4 years vs a 10 year product cycle. People see bestseller and get carried away IMHO. I think we can say D&D 100% is doing very well, and about 90% it is doing the best consistently overall. The PHB is not in the top 100 that often except for short term sales spikes via discounts. You have to make some very large assumptions and start playing with some very silly numbers to get up into 3 million PHB sold (averaged out over 4 years its something like double the size of the RPG market just with PHB and Amazon has 2 spikes each year with the 5E adventure releases). I think those 2 big spikes each year+ consistent sales of the PHB+ sales of everything ( all the other books, older releases+ online stuff) else easily accounts for what WotC is claiming and some saner numbers. 1-2 million PHB sold would explain the D&D numbers for example and we don't know how many of the numbers they are claiming comes from online games and free downloads. If that counts for 50% of the players for example it would indicate probably something in the 1-1.5 range. Note anything over a million is great in D&D terms, only 2 editions have done that maybe 3 if you count 3.0 and 3.5 as one edition (and maybe Pathfinder is needed to cross that as well depending on how accurate Dancey is and what he counted as 3E). [/QUOTE]
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