Adventure fiction - heck, fiction in general - depends on coincidence: people turn up, or fail to turn up, at the appropriate moment; opportunities arise, or fail to arise, at just the time that will drive the protagonist to action; etc.
That's not to say that fiction must be "unrealistic" in the sense of wildly implausible. It is to say that, if you looked at 1,000 human lives, few or even none of them would exhibit the same degree of dramatic "neatness" and development as one finds in fiction. For the same reason, even the lives of people who lived exciting and dramatic lives generally need editing to be rendered dramatically apt (eg for biopic films or historical novels). The editing needed to make real human lives dramatic can be large or can be small, but editing is required.
In Classic Traveller, a PC or group of PCs spends a week looking for a patron to hire them to undertake some (typically exciting) mission, they have a 1 in 3 chance of finding such a person. Is that realistic? - We are marking off time on the campaign tracker, after all, and in Traveller that will cost you money for upkeep, berthing costs for your starship and ultimately ageing rolls for your PC. Or is it unrealistic? - I've got a skillset comparable to some of the characters the Traveller PC gen rules can yield, but I don't think if I spent a week hanging out in "bars, taverns, clubs . . . or any other likely places" (to quote from Book 3) that I would have a 1 in 18 chance of being approached by an Arsonist, Cutthroat, Assassin, Hijacker, Smuggler or Terrorist (to pluck the top line from the 6 lines of the random patron table).
In the Star Wars universe, how often are bar patrons maimed or killed in bar fights? We don't know - the inspiration for those scenes in the original movie is the western, not a bureau of statistics report on the incidence of drinking-hole violence. If I sit down to play a Star Wars game and there are none of those western-style tropes, then the game is going to suck.
In the universe of Classic Traveller, it's a given that dubious persons who hang out in "likely places" will be hired by somewhat shadowy, sometimes unlikely, patrons to undertake dubious, shadowy and unlikely tasks. That's what makes the game happen. (Or is at least one way the game happens. The other is to play a trading game. But that variant also rests on tropes that weren't conceived of via statistical analysis.)
If I was playing a game which features sect members and teahouses (or cultists and inns) then personally I would expect that from time to time a visit to the teahouse will result in a meeting with sect members. Different systems and different moods will affect how much we care about time spent waiting for sect members to show up, money spent bribing hospitality staff for tip-offs, etc - but that doesn't change the underlying expectation.
I love doing this as well. Or I'll ask my players to roll a D20 to determine what happens during their travels, and they know that a 20 means "YIKES!".
Telling the players the odds can create suspense, while also showing the players what rules you are using. I like to be as open as possible when it comes to my rulings as a DM.
I didn't say anything about whether "realism" is a matter of degree or a categorical thing. I said that real human lives don't have the same dramatic "neatness" and development as do those of characters in fiction. The truth of that claim doesn't turn on any view about whether "realism" is or is not a matter of degree.It seems like you are back to the False Dichotomy that realism must be all or nothing.
I don't see how "more realistic" bears on this. How realistic is it to have a guy's arm cut off in an interstellar cantina? Or to have a guy shot? Jedi are supposedly extinct, and light sabers thus an ancient weapon, yet no one seems too shocked to see one pulled out - how realistic is that? The questions don't really make sense: the cantina scenes are not meant to be elements in an educational video, "A day in the life of an interstellar bar". They weren't authored on the basis of random sampling. They're deliberately-crafted scenes in a dramatic narrative.None of that means that a different DM's game of Star Wars or Traveller can't be made to be more realistic, while still keeping those tropes and having a game that doesn't suck. Realism is not an all or nothing proposition.
There aren't any goal posts here - we're neither literally nor metaphorically playing a game of football (or hockey etc). But in any even, how long do you, or any other poster, supppose the PCs who head down to the teahouse spend there waiting for a sect member to turn up? As far as I recall I'm the first person to even raise it as a consideration, in the post you quoted - so what goal posts am I supposedly moving? I mean, if the system were Traveller then the basic unit of time would probably be a week. In 4e D&D it could easily be a day.If the PCs go back daily and sit from opening until closing for a month or two or wait for a month or two for notification from a worker after a bribe, the odds of running into a sect member rise dramatically. That's moving the goal posts, though. The scenario was just walking down to the tea house and hoping to run into a sect member at a tea house. The odds of that happening are very slim. The odds are much more slim than the odds of methods used by games you like to determine if a sect member is there.
I didn't say anything about whether "realism" is a matter of degree or a categorical thing. I said that real human lives don't have the same dramatic "neatness" and development as do those of characters in fiction. The truth of that claim doesn't turn on any view about whether "realism" is or is not a matter of degree.
I don't see how "more realistic" bears on this. How realistic is it to have a guy's arm cut off in an interstellar cantina? Or to have a guy shot?
Jedi are supposedly extinct, and light sabers thus an ancient weapon, yet no one seems too shocked to see one pulled out - how realistic is that?
But in any even, how long do you, or any other poster, supppose the PCs who head down to the teahouse spend there waiting for a sect member to turn up? As far as I recall I'm the first person to even raise it as a consideration, in the post you quoted - so what goal posts am I supposedly moving? I mean, if the system were Traveller then the basic unit of time would probably be a week. In 4e D&D it could easily be a day.
So instead of the extreme unlikelihood that person X is there, or person Y, we go with person Z who happens to be a dramatically interesting person in the context of the game.
If in doubt, I find 3 in 6 chance works really well - "hm, ok, 3 in 6 chance sect members at the tea house" - it's a nice compromise between cinematic reality and reality-reality.
If you have a trust problem with GMs, then that sounds like a you issue to me. It may be safe to say there are some GMs out there who might choose what happens based on what they want to happen - but I also know there are a lot of GMs out there who take the idea that they should be impartial seriously. Frankly, I'm a little more suspicious of the "Say Yes or Roll" mentality than the "Say Yes or No when appropriate for the situation" mentality because I don't feel the former gives the setting/mysteries/NPCs an even break with the PCs.
That is an entirely reasonable expectation on your part. If you were in my group, I'd consider that kind of expectation when trying to figure out how to make the determination. The intent here isn't to clamp down on a gaming principle, even if it ruins everyone's fun. But that doesn't make it mother may I, if a GM reaches a decision by concluding based on what he or she thinks would be present at the Tea House. It makes it, a style of play Pemerton wouldn't particularly like. Which is entirely reasonable and it is even fair for you to expect the GM to not be a jerk about his style if other people want something different from what's being offered.
And like I said before, what is plausible might be one factor among many the GM is weighing. I have no issue with the GM thinking 'what is plausible AND what is genre appropriate' or 'what is plausible AND what is dramatically interesting'. That is all fine by me. I also have no problem with the GM saying 'I don't know so I am going to roll on this here chart'.
I didn't say anything about NPCs - I talked about characters in fiction. In the context of RPGing, the PCs are the most salient such characters.The truth of the claim is irrelevant to the discussion about realism, though. It was a Red Herring. Realism is a spectrum, so whether or not real human lives match up to NPCs lives doesn't matter.
What system are you talking about? Maxperson's table's approach to D&D? Classic Traveller doesn't require time to be specified in such a way - I GMed a session on the weekend and as I went around the table to find out what the players were having their PCs do one said "I'm looking for a patron." Which takes a week.Time is something you specify if it's going to be longer than going down to see if one is there.
More often per unit of play time? Per unit of action declaration? Per unit of ingame time?Which pushes the game further down towards the unrealistic end of the spectrum, as it happens quite a bit more often in your type of game than in mine.
Coin flips work for me, too.