A Possible Way Forward for D&D (And a design pitch for WotC!)

Mercurius

Legend
PREAMBLE
Mike Mearls' most recent Legends and Lore and the arrival of Wrath of Ashardalon in the mail, plus various other online conversations and ideas bouncing around in my cranium, got me thinking about a possible future for D&D. On one hand it is hard to imagine yet another edition cycle starting up in the next few years, with the same old round of the same supplements (I swear to Ra, I will never buy another copy of the Draconomicon again...well, unless it is really cool!).

On the other hand, the D&D community is more fractured than it has ever been, with Pathfinder vying for the top spot in the RPG marketplace, and as many as half (or more) active D&D players playing something other than the current version of the classic game. Even many fans of 4E (such as myself) feel that it has major flaws and would welcome a new edition, even sooner than later. To put it another way, something has to change; what exactly, well, maybe WotC doesn't even have a plan and is trying to figure it out.

PART ONE: TWO ROADS DIVERGED IN A WOOD...
I would guess that we're going to see one of two paths going forward:

  1. WotC reduces their D&D design team, or re-allocates it to focus on board games and other non-RPG D&D products (this seems to have already happened). They focus on D&D Insider and board games with only a trickle of D&D print products coming out over the next few years. The D&D game itself gradually evolves through DDI; WotC subtly and gradually gathers information, patiently crafting 5E to arrive in print form sometime around or after 2015, if at all.
  2. We are in the calm before the storm. The above scenario is occuring, but we're going to see a Gen Con announcement for 5E as soon as 2011, probably more likely 2012, with core books to be out either in Spring of 2012 or 2013. They will market it as the "D&D edition to end all edition (wars)!" It will (be an attempt to) combine the best of Old School, 3.x, and 4E, with a flexible system that can be used without miniatures, with online tools or not, rules lite, medium, or complex. They will likely take a different tactic towards the splat treadmill and better utilize DDI to include new feats and such, with printed material focusing more on box sets, mega adventures, theme and campaign books.
In either or any scenario, I see the focus being on D&D Insider; in a sense, as I put it some time ago, DDI is the new core rules - any printed material is more akin to a snapshot of the ever-evolving DDI rules set. But the primary difference between the two scenarios is that in the first, 5E isn't a given and if it does come, it is still many years away, while in the second scenario, 5E is imminent - isn't a matter of if but when, and that when will be soon, regardless (no more than 2-3 years).

Personally speaking I would love to see the latter scenario play out, but I'm not sure it will happen. What I do see as already happening is that D&D is differentiating into three distinct, but related, areas of production: the tabletop RPG, D&D Insider, and board games etc (including possible card games, miniature games, and other stuff). I think we're going to see that trend continue, although a key might be finding ways to make them interchangeable, so that one could utilize any of the three domains, even with the same character and campaign.

Which got me thinking...

PART TWO: A PITCH FOR WIZARDS OF THE COAST
Imagine a board game box set that was essentially a random dungeon generator - it followed 4E rules (perhaps slightly simplified), but it had tons of interlocking dungeon tiles (ala Ashardalon), monsters, cards, etc, and one or more individuals could play through it, with many hours of possible game play and expansion packs for more tiles and monsters. It could even have an overarching theme like Undermountain or Castle Greyhawk, so there could still be fluff description cards to liven it up a bit. While it could be played as a random dungeoncrawl, there might be optional quest objectives - like find the stolen necklace of Baroness Thecla or slay the lich Xariot and steal his magical jewel, etc. But it would essentially be an exploration-based dungeon-crawl, no more or less - hours and hours of hack-and-slash, killing things and taking their stuff, with random things thrown in like fluff description cards that bring the dungeon alive.

To put it another way, anyone who grew up on AD&D probably tried their hand at solo play using the random dungeon generator in the back of the original Dungeon Master's Guide. Imagine that, but with visual props, fluff description cards, possible quests, and the option to play with friends.

I know this isn't that different than Castle Ravenloft or Ashardalon on face value, but it would be quite different in two ways: It would be focused on random dungeon generation so there would essentially be infinite possible game play, especially with expansion packs (e.g. "The Middle Levels", the "Lower Levels", "Further Quests," etc). Secondly, it would follow D&D rules so there would be levels and a sense of advancement; this would also allow for compatibility with "normal" D&D (is that an oxymoron?).

WotC could come out with one of these mega-box sets maybe two or three times a year, then a series of maybe three expansions for each box that would effectively serve as higher level challenges. Box themes could include: Undermountain, Castle Greyhawk, the Underdark, the Abyss, some kind of haunted forest, a ruined city, etc. The possibilities are endless. WotC could charge maybe $60 for the core box, then about $30 for an expansion set; this would mean that a box set and its three expansions would cost a total of $150 (or approximately $100 on Amazon). They could also come out with versions of some iconic adventures, like Tomb of Horrors, White Plume Mountain, etc.

PART THREE: PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER
The above series of box sets could be considered the new Basic D&D, with the traditional tabletop game being Advanced D&D, with all the usual books and the extraneous mass of flesh called the Dungeon Master. The key here would be modularity and flexibility: the Basic and Advanced games would be interchangeable; AD&D could use the tiles and minis but it wouldn't be reliant upon them; let's say the regular DM is burnt out and wants to just play, out comes a box.

So in this hypothetical new "5E" Dungeons & Dragons game, you have a few different layers, or tiers:

Basic Dungeons & Dragons - box sets with random dungeon generation, props, quests, etc, utilizing a simplified "basic" version of D&D.

Advanced Dungeons & Dragons - the classic tabletop game with the iconic Big Three books, the DMG, PHB, and MM, plus theme and campaign setting books and mega-adventure box sets.

D&D Insider - tools and expansion rules such as feats, items, etc.

An individual player could utilize one, two, or all three of the above, and still play with others that do things slightly differently. There might be many casual players that only play the box sets but that could easily move into "AD&D" if they wanted to because the two would be completely compatible. DDI would be optional but would also include many rules options that weren't available in books, giving people incentives to subscribe. It would also have different tiers of subscription with the more you pay, the more you get (e.g. a "Copper" subscription would allow access to just the Character Builder and maybe Dragon and cost just $5 a month, whereas a Silver subscription would give DM tools like Monster Builder, Dungeon magazine, and cost $10 a month, and a Gold subscription would give access to advanced tools and cost $15 a month; finally there could be a Platinum subscription that included quarterly print editions or compilations of Dragon and Dungeon...).

So what do you think?
 

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I think something like what you're talking about will be the future of the D&D game if it survives.

I also think, as a Pathfinder player and one who severely dislikes the reported 4E combat playstyle, I would have little to no interest if the ruleset continues to be based on anything resembling 4E. (It's why I won't buy the 4E boardgames.)

I'm very, very happy with Pathfinder.

I'm very, very uninterested in the 4E game.
 

I also think, as a Pathfinder player and one who severely dislikes the reported 4E combat playstyle, I would have little to no interest if the ruleset continues to be based on anything resembling 4E. (It's why I won't buy the 4E boardgames.)
As a currently inactive roleplayer (I'm "between" games) who dislikes the reported 4E combat playstyle, I would conversely be very interested in a 4E board game. For myself, I assume that 4E would be a great tactical board game.

Industry-wise, I'm not sure if there's a lot of money in RPG-based boardgames. I assume the latest wave of casual German-style boardgames are profitable because they a) are more interesting than Monopoly, b) less complex than a war game, and therefore c) reach a wider mainstream audience. Even a 4E-lite boardgame is probably on the complex end and may have a problem of slow learning curves for non-roleplayers. Myself, I would be worried if and how often I could find friends willing to play a 4E boardgame.

Mind you, Hasbro could afford to sell a 4E-lite boardgame as a loss leader, if it successfully acts as a gateway to recruit new players to other D&D formats.

Overall, I like the idea of D&D branching out to different formats, and it already seems to be the way Hasbro is moving.
 
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As a currently inactive roleplayer (I'm "between" games) who dislikes the reported 4E combat playstyle, I would conversely be very interested in a 4E board game. For myself, I assume that 4E would be a great tactical board game.

I'm not a 4e guy - but I have enjoyed a few cracks at the Ravenloft Boardgame. Its well done and fast paced once you get the routine down.
 

What I think would be good is:

Basic Board Game: This is the regular product line, with stuff coming out every few months. It's easy, quick-to-play, and pretty to look at.


One Core Book: I figure within 5 years it will be silly to publish physical books as much as they do now. You'd have one core book with truly lavish, stunning art. It's the centerpiece designed to make you think that D&D is amazing and cool.

It wouldn't have character building rules -- those are in the board game, or available electronically. No, this book would be about roleplaying, storytelling, inventing cool worlds, and all the non-mechanical fluff stuff. It might include a 'diet' version of D&D, with a truly minimalist amount of rules, so you could use it as a standalone game.


Digital Books: Here's where the advanced stuff really comes in. You'd have Dungeon and Dragon magazines available for purchase or through subscription. Rulebooks would be available too. Everything nicely designed for e-readers and tablets.


Gameplay Apps: Your character sheet is on your smartphone or tablet, and it tracks everything for you -- HP, conditions, items and spells and powers and all that.

(I personally think that dice should still be rolled, and you just note the damage dealt manually, because it gives more freedom to fudge and allow cool things the computer can't handle. But I could accept a game where you network devices, have the computer roll, and let the GM ping you with damage directly.)


So you can play the board game version (casual gamers), the roleplaying version (snobs like me), or the full version (devoted gamers), with apps and digital content to appeal to everyone.
 

I really don't think WotC can go with a 5e at this point in time. I don't see such a thing recapturing a significant number of people from Pathfinder (or the OSR, or those who simply stopped at 3.5e), but it would split the 4e base still further.

On the other hand, I don't think WotC can recapture a significant number of those people without a new edition.

So, they're stuck either way.

Basically (assuming they need to recapture those people at all), their only hope is to try to ride out a few lean years, and then try to hit with 5e at about the same time as Pathfinder's 1e is losing steam, and try to scoop up people who would otherwise be going to PF 2e.

I do think the DDI will likely be the focus of the RPG effort going forward. And I'm just as sure that this is a mistake (just as focussing on the minis would have been a few years ago). Whatever succeeds WoW (possibly even WoW itself a few expansions down the line) will simply blow D&D out of the water - D&D really has to focus on the things that makes it unique, and the DDI isn't it.
 

Yeah, if Pathfinder starts to get topheavy around 2015, and WotC releases a product with Pathfinder aesthetics (it's a PRETTY GAME), Pathfinder feel to the gameplay, but 4e simplification and balance, I think it could be a hit.

ESPECIALLY if WotC does the smart thing and offers to work with Paizo, having them playtest and help design, plus working out a cooperative OGL-style license from the get-go. To think, if WotC had gotten its sh** together on the legal front and made a friendlier GSL in the fall of 2007, Paizo might actually have published 8 adventure paths for 4th edition!
 

I agree that WotC is going to an all electronic format. Record labels are already moving to that format: subscriptions. It's a way to combat piracy which we all know has devastated the music industry. I recently read where a musician (don't remember who) said they now put out an album to support a tour whereas back in the day they would go on tour to support an album. Comparably, I can see WotC releasing an annual PRINT book to support the online service as opposed to online content supporting the print releases.
 

So you can play the board game version (casual gamers), the roleplaying version (snobs like me), or the full version (devoted gamers), with apps and digital content to appeal to everyone.

Cool beans. Your formulation is actually rather similar to mine, although I've included more "meat" in the books part - I think there will still be room for theme and setting books, which just don't translate well online.

I really don't think WotC can go with a 5e at this point in time. I don't see such a thing recapturing a significant number of people from Pathfinder (or the OSR, or those who simply stopped at 3.5e), but it would split the 4e base still further.

On the other hand, I don't think WotC can recapture a significant number of those people without a new edition.

So, they're stuck either way.

True, true. I'm wondering, though, just how much 5E would splinter 4E. Maybe I'm wrong but I could see 4E becoming a bit of a "lost edition" like 2E; people either tried and moved back to earlier editions or they are willing to move on to the Next Thing. How many people play 2E today? My guess is less than any other major edition. If you want "old school" AD&D play you go for 1E and maybe supplement with 2E materials. If you want "new school" game design you go for 3.x or 4E. If you want a simple version of D&D you go for OD&D or BECMI.

I have a feeling 4E will be similar. The 3.x folks will stay with 3.x or Pathfinder, while the bulk of 4E players will go with the New & Shiny that 5E offers.

So if WotC can get 80-90% of current 4E players, a bunch lapsed players and new players, and maybe scrape away a few from Pathfinder and 3.x, then 5E becomes a possibility.

Basically (assuming they need to recapture those people at all), their only hope is to try to ride out a few lean years, and then try to hit with 5e at about the same time as Pathfinder's 1e is losing steam, and try to scoop up people who would otherwise be going to PF 2e.

Maybe. My guess is that there are diehard Pathfinder folks that won't switch to 5E just about no matter what, and then there are a bunch of moderates who might give 5E a chance if it looked good no matter when it came out. So I don't think they need to tie 5E with Pathfinder at all - it will float or sink on its own merits, not on whether people are sick of Pathfinder.

On the other hand, your post gave me an idea: What if WotC and Paizo time it right so that the 2E of Pathfinder and the 5E of D&D are...the same thing. This is the scenario where Hasbro is sick of D&D and sells it off to...Paizo, who brings the two games back together. Of course this probably will never happen, if only because if Paizo ever has the money to buy D&D from Hasbro then they probably don't need the D&D brand name. But it is an interesting thought...

I do think the DDI will likely be the focus of the RPG effort going forward. And I'm just as sure that this is a mistake (just as focussing on the minis would have been a few years ago). Whatever succeeds WoW (possibly even WoW itself a few expansions down the line) will simply blow D&D out of the water - D&D really has to focus on the things that makes it unique, and the DDI isn't it.

Hmm...I'm not a huge fan of DDI, but I don't think it is competing with WoW at all. I completely agree that WotC should focus on what makes D&D unique, but tools like Character Builder and Monster Builder actually can accent traditional tabletop play in the same way that, say, a laptop makes a writer's life so much easier than a typewriter does. But the key is accent and not replace. The VTT and similar concepts are one step too far away from "what makes D&D unique." It is similar to the problem with the battlemap and minis but tenfold: It removes the focus of attention away from the shared imagination space onto something perceivable and simulative. And it is the shared imagination space that makes RPGs unique and differentiates them from, say, video games or board games.

DDI tools that enhance/accent the shared imagination space = good
DDI tools that replace/simulate the shared imagination space = bad
 

I still say we're likely to get a major announcement from WOTC about the future of D&D at Gen Con this summer. If it is '5E' (and if it is a true RPG and not a type of boardgame) I definitely think it will have a strong 1E influence.
 

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