I think +8 is more likely, maybe +10 for a Halfling. You get 3 ranks +3 class, maybe they'll have an 18 dex, but point buy is really expensive in PF, even with a +dex race, I'd expect a +2 or +3 more likely. And there could be a small armor check penalty. So...about half chance of working. Better with skill focus.
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10 ranks, +3 class...+6 dex at level 10? Factoring in everything as above and assuming a less massive dex...i'd put that at +17 or +18 at best. So, less than 50% chance of working! Should I be concerned that with levels, your ability to tumble has gotten worse?
I'm thinking of a Rogue (the typical person who needs to flank and has acrobatics and dex), using point buy to get a 16 Dex, and having a racial bonus of +2.
Considering it's most likely his primary stat, a 16 in point buy isn't ridiculous.
By 10th level, getting a +4 item (or, an ally casting Cat's Grace), on your main stat isn't an absurd idea either.
Also, a masterwork studded leather by 3rd level, nor a mithral chain shirt by 10th level, are both completely within reason for no armor check penalty.
I think I can honestly say I've never seen someone play a Rogue or skill heavy character with even a -1 to their checks. Never happened. Ever.
So no... I think I have to insist on the numbers I provided. I'm not about to argue your experience though, it's quite feasible that in your experience you've seen different.
What I'm saying then is that you might be playing in a slightly less powered game though, compared to what the game expects (if you look at the wealth by level), which can give you worse numbers than expected.
This might be why you are seeing people have a different response to your rant, perhaps they aren't playing with the same numbers as your games.
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Regarding downing a potion... like I mentioned, it would be a good item to use if you wanted to move full movement with the same odds as before with only half movement.
A more apt comparison would be a Fighter downing a potion of Enlarge to get better reach, or wanting a haste to get a bit extra.
Not "necessary", but nice.
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