Actually, our opinion does matter.

Azgulor

Adventurer
Dear lords and ladies of ENWorld:

Amongst the continually-spawning threads of RPG industry analysis, the sporadic Edition Warring, & the comparison of anecdotes in place of unobtainable sales data, a frequent claim is inevitably made. The claim, paraphrased, goes something along the lines of: “ENWorlders don’t represent the average gamer, therefore your opinion isn’t as important to Company XYZ as you think it is/should be”.

Respectfully, that’s an ogre-sized pile of steaming crap.


In the interests of full disclosure, let’s be up-front about it. The scenario above is typically talking about WotC, and of late, comparing/contrasting them to Paizo. Additionally, while I don’t play 4e, I don’t lose sleep that it bears the title of Dungeons & Dragons. I have, however, been quite critical of WotC’s marketing in the past & have continued to have cause to question business decisions they’ve made in recent years.


So, while I don’t subscribe to the notion that a company cares about every customer, there’s some basic business realities here:

1. The success & lifespan of a given RPG (or any business, really) is dependent upon an ongoing stream of incoming revenue. The heavy hitters in RPGs have traditionally produced content (sourcebooks, adventures, magazines, tie-ins, etc.) on an ongoing basis. Smaller RPGs have traditionally had a much smaller “library” of material and tend to release new editions with greater frequency. In either case, most of the RPG companies that are viewed as “successful” don't just publish a few books and then sit back for years and just watch the cash roll in.

2. By virtue of simple economics, a customer that purchases more of a company’s product is of greater value than a customer that makes a single purchase and stops. This is why, to use an example, you have contact/call centers that utilize Customer Relationship Management systems to segment customers into “value tiers”. Higher-valued customers are given higher priority over lower-value customers. Let’s stick with frpg money: gold, silver, copper. If you’re a “gold” customer, you jump to the front of the queue and have a shorter wait. If you’re a “copper” customer… well, your wait time might be measured in hours rather than minutes.

3. Another economic reality is that it is easier to keep an existing customer than it is to obtain a new one. Generally speaking, the cost of sales and the success, or conversion, factor of gaining that new customer is much higher. In sales-speak, it’s easier to farm than to hunt.


So, looking at our little corner of ENWorld, what do we have?
Players and GMs that, by a sizeable amount, have more than a cursory interest in the hobby. How do we know this? Reading the posts tells us this. The exchange of ideas in terms of adventures, plots, NPCs, game mechanics, story hours --- these are all things that indicate time spent. Much of these involve specific product discussions, another indicator of interest. But wait, there are Community Supporters – people that are paying money to fund the site.

If you’re Joe Blow and you bought a Player’s Handbook, some dice, and played D&D one time and then never opened the book again, chances are pretty darn good you’re not spending your free hours on ENWorld.


So why does this matter?

Because even if ENWorld represents 1% of the RPG customer base, the $/customer ratio is going to be much higher. Let’s say there are 100,000 customers (we’ll give video games a break and say collectible card players instead) who have never tried a table-top RPG that you think you can pull into RPGs and at least get to buy one $30 hardback. That’s $3M in sales (not profits) if you’re 100% successful.

Now, let’s say that there are 1000 ENWorlders that spend $300 a year on RPGs. If company X could earn all of their RPG spend, that’s $300,000.

So obviously, you want to go after the 100,000 and get their 1 book purchase, right?

WRONG. You go after BOTH customer segments.

Also, 1000 customers is 1% of the 100,000, but equal to 10% of the potential revenue. It also carries a MUCH higher chance of successfully getting more of that segment’s spend than recruiting the brand new customer.

The community base at sites like ENWorld is essentially FREE ADVERTISING as fans talk about recent purchases and upcoming releases. I’m not saying such a community is the most important customer segment – but it’s important. It’s not an anomaly and it’s not insignificant.

Some other trite-but-true axioms of business:
1. Perception is reality.
2. The customer is always right.

Of course, the customer isn’t always right. But you don’t go out of your way to tell the customer that they’re wrong unless you don’t want to keep that customer.

As for perception, the only perception that matters is the CUSTOMER’S perception. Because if they aren’t buying, the perception of Company XYZ doesn’t matter – you’re not selling. Get enough “perception” going against you, and you’re not delivering a return to a shareholder or, more importantly, making a payroll.


Which brings me to the ultimate sales-related question, “So what?”
We’re the die-hards, folks. For whatever reason, we’re spending our time and our money on a hobby that embraces customer participation like few others. We’re spending time on a website where probably 90+% have played in or are playing in a game that requires you to roll a d20. We’re the evangelists & the nay-sayers.

I’m not saying we can bang the table and expect to get what we want – far from it. We are NOT, however, a miniscule voice in the wilderness. Outside of a company’s own message boards, we’re the free conduit of feedback. I’m sure it’s an overwhelming volume of feedback at times, but I’d say it’s a lot more informative than a survey card or a poll.

That came out a lot longer than I intended. No salvos in the Edition Wars, no asking “can’t we all just get along?” – just asking that we not be so dismissive of our peers’ opinions or the collective weight that our voice carries. After one of the most frustrating work weeks in my life from working to prevent the "perception/reality" issue from killing a project, reading through some of the threads tonight struck a nerve, I suppose. Let's not forget that while we want our RPG products, the publishers need us to buy them.

See, the symbiotic nature of capitalism works for more than just mega-corps!
 

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Of course companies listen to the few customers who give any feedback at all.
Another marketing insight is that, "Many customers don't complain; instead, they simply leave and never think about coming back."

It isn't the one-and-done customer who performs any Beta testing on the online products and reports any found bugs; nor does that casual customer discuss quality and usefulness of products with online peers, by posting things such as, "Keep on the Shadowfell was combat-heavy," or "Slaying Stone was better," or "Reavers of Harkenwold was well done."
 


Respectfully, that’s an ogre-sized pile of steaming crap.

Respectfully, you are misusing the term "respectfully".

Because even if ENWorld represents 1% of the RPG customer base

But, it doesn't.

While EN World has over 100,000 registered users, that includes all the folks who have dropped by the wayside over the years, and every spammer who ever registered an account to make one post about watches they have to sell before they got banned. The number of folks who are "active" in the non-PBP sections of the boards is probably down in the mid to low hundreds*. The number of folks who are really vocal in the various strong arguments is even smaller.

And, the overall market? Using the WotC market survey results (old, but the only hard data we have), it's more like a million than 100,000.

So, you're probably off by a factor of two or more on one side, and a factor of ten on the other - so, your estimates of the ratio is off by perhaps a factor of 20.

And, your point only solidly applies if we all agree on a given point. But, we are not unified. On any given topic, EN World is usually split, sending no clear message a company can choose to follow to get it "right" to get that segment of the market. If we count this splitting as another factor of two, then your ratio demonstrating our importance is off by a factor of 40!




* Or at least, that's what I recall from the last time Morrus checked it.
 
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Equally dangerous, however, is listening too much to a vocal minority - which can often shout loudly enough at you that you can be fooled into believing that's the opinion of your whole customer base.

One other axiom is also true: people who are unhappy often complain. The swathes of people who are happy tend to be quieter.

Agreed 100%, though I think Azgulor is right for the most part. The opinions of ENWorld's members is important, and IMO should be taken as a more informed and qualified opinion or set of opinions, but it's only one set or peice of data. One would be a fool to listen only to this and then base decisions on it. At the same time, only a fool would totally disregard such feedback also.

An opinion that matters? Yes

The most important or only opinion(s) that matter? Not even close.
 

I disagree with both of the following points:

Contention 1) OP says we are the opinion leaders.
Contention 2) Umbran and Morrus say we don't represent the entire population.

Contention 1 is wrong because we don't actually have a wide area of influence. A few people might, and there might be a network effect, but most of us influence a few people at most. So, we might be opinionated, but we are not opinion leaders. This quote is particularly wrong "we’re the free conduit of feedback...but I’d say it’s a lot more informative than a survey card or a poll." I would say the exact opposite--there is no calibration, no sense of how valuable the feedback is, and no tie between opinion and sales. To paraphrase good research design methods, "A collection of anecdotes is not data."*

Contention 2 is wrong because we do observe dispersion of opinion, indicating disagreement on two sides of an issue. We do not have a vocal minority and a silent majority. Instead, we have two vocal minorities and a silent group. I think we can assume that the discussions on Enworld represent the views of both vocal groups entirely adequately.


I agree that these views (as expressed on Enworld) are mostly useless for make real decisions. But they may be indicative of what direction to go for more market research.


* Yeah, yeah, case studies are a valid form of research, but only in the sense that they guide theory and subsequent empirical research.
 

reading the mile long posts in this thread, I came to recall a neat story from the then head of ABC Roone Alredge when asked about starting up Monday Night Football in 1970. Someone asked him "what about die hard football fans?"

his answer blew me away, he said as serious as could be "F--- them, they're watching anyway, my job is to reach out to find a bigger audience"

bottom line, when they come out with 5th edition, we'll all buy it (we meaning us message boarders and die hard fans)
 

reading the mile long posts in this thread, I came to recall a neat story from the then head of ABC Roone Alredge when asked about starting up Monday Night Football in 1970. Someone asked him "what about die hard football fans?"

his answer blew me away, he said as serious as could be "F--- them, they're watching anyway, my job is to reach out to find a bigger audience"

bottom line, when they come out with 5th edition, we'll all buy it (we meaning us message boarders and die hard fans)

Yeah and we're seeing how well that attitude panned out for WOTC. This pretty much the same crap that the newly 4E faithful was spouting at the beginning of the 4E lifecycle.

"for all their complaining about it, in a year they'll all be playing 4E!"

Guess what? It's been 3 years and I'm STILL not playing 4E. I'm playing Pathfinder. And if 5E is anything like 4E? No, I won't be back. Thing is I'm pretty certain I'm not the only one.

In the end WOTC didnt fire me as a customer. They didnt kick my dog. They didn't come in a take all of my gaming stuff. They simply make a product that I have no intest in. So I spend my money elsewhere. Brand loyalty only gets so far. You actually have to produce a product that a customer wants and to assume otherwise is pretty arrogant on the behalf of the company in question as well as their followers.
 

We do not have a vocal minority and a silent majority. Instead, we have two vocal minorities and a silent group. I think we can assume that the discussions on Enworld represent the views of both vocal groups entirely adequately.

You misunderstand me. We are the vocal minority. The silent majority is out there playing whatever games they want to play.

We're also very self-selected, and thus ot representative. We represent exactly only one thing: RPG gamers who on the whole tend towards D&D and like to join internet communities concerning their hobby.
 

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