Adventuring: A Dice Game

[orsal]

I appreciate the correction. I am confused because all dice are cast at the same time. The first die is not the comparison; each die has a 1/4 independent chance of obtaining that same number.

But you aren't trying to figure out the probability of all the dice getting a *particular* number, you're trying to figure out the probability of them all getting the same number, without specifying what that number is. The timing of the rolls is irrelevant -- just arbitrarily pick a die to call the first. "All four dice come up the same" is equivalent to "whatever the first die got, the other three all got that."

I must of missed that. I thought the heroes were d4s and the demon die was a d6.

Yeah, me too. I think I hastily read "four six-sided dice" as "four-sided dice".

So this simplifies the calculation. The probability that the hero dice will all come up the same is (1/6)^3=1/216=0.005. The probability that a particular hero die will not match the demon die is 5/6; the probability that none of them will match the demon is (5/6)^4=625/1296=0.483.

In any case, I forgot the AND/Or rule. I read some statistics forums online and I think I understand the difference now.

in this case: 1 - (5/6)^n

...where n is the number of dice. That is the probability that at least one of the dice lands on a specified number (e.g. whatever number the demon die lands on).

 

[ssampier]

Thanks. I think I'll make a statistics and probability thread in off-topic in a few days.

 

[Endovior]

I'd figured that someone would crunch the numbers sooner or later... but with 4-siders? Maybe I wasn't clear enough in saying six-sided dice...

It seems to me that decreasing the size of the dice rolled increases both the risk and the profit... increasing it does the opposite.

In my experience (test playing), I've found that...
The House has an advantage. This was intended.
Winnings or losses tend to fall in the range of 100 Gp.
The Cleric's ability is most useful when losing.
The Fighter's ability is indeed not as significant as the others, I agree with the suggestion that it be changed to 3 times.
The Rogue's ability is useful by reason of the fact that it is the special ability that comes up most often... all of the others rely on synergy, which is the exception and not the rule. This is more true with 6-siders.
The Wizard tends to be the one die that causes both the phenomenal winnings and the disasterous losses... this was intended.

 

[Conaill]

The main problem I see for a *real* game, is that you're allowing the players to "go negative". I.e. they may be spending money they don't have.

For a real gambling game, you'd probably need to make sure they only spend whatever money they've put down on the table (while avoiding situations where they can simply buy their way to a success - e.g. by letting them replenish hit points using cash).

Another option may be for to divorce the in-game "points" from actual money. E.g. the players or other bystanders could place bets on who will win.

 

[Endovior]

Hmm... That's pretty hard to do without drastically changing the game mechanics.

I'd recommend some fearsome debt-collection muscle, and a system of dealing with those unable to pay (ie: in lieu of paying your substantial debt, you can [insert adventure hook here]... or have all your posessions confiscated and be sold into slavery), or just leave the PCs in debt (with a high interest rate and dire consequences for not repaying).