Are forums representative of users?

[Dedekind]

We've tossed around the question of whether Enworld (or more generally, any forum) represents the true user base for RPGs. Mostly without any data. Maybe the following is relevant (hang with me, TL; DR. version a bottom).

Ben Cousins, a general manager for a free-to-play video game division of EA, posted the following slide show:

Paying To Win

As you can tell by the title, it is really about getting players to pay money for extras in the video game.

What does this have to do with us? They can link their player's log-in credentials to their forum activity and they found some interesting trends (these results come from around 25:00 and 35:00):

1) About 20% of users read forums but don't post.
2) About 2% of users post.
3) Those 2% who post spend FORTY TIMES more than those who don't post.

One of the conclusions they drew was that when everybody was upset on the forum (and it got picked up by the gaming press), it actually only represented a very small portion of their customers. In fact, the changes with the most rage had little effect on business performance measures.

I found all this very fascinating and I think there are things that port to RPGs. Do the forums represent the user base? The small sample isn't the issue. The self-selection bias of the small sample is the issue. If you post, you are passionate about it and invested, but not necessarily representative or even a profit center for the company. Does this port?

Side note: I don't care about the "unfairness" stuff from people buying better stuff. Can we keep commentary on that out of the thread?

TL; DR version: EA found that forum posters pay more money to play a game, but don't represent the opinions of the full customer base. Does that apply to RPGs?

 

[Crazy Jerome]

Depends on how much the people posting are posting strictly on behalf of themselves--versus "championing" issues shared by others they know, who aren't posting--versus "championing" issues they think are shared by others who aren't posting, and for which they have no direct evidence.

Most of the gamers in groups I have been in don't participate in message boards. And some of the stuff that I care about, they don't care about. But whether they don't care because I work to make sure it never is a problem for them, or because they really don't care, I can't definitely say. Probably some of each. And while I'm sure that there are a handful of things they care about that might surprise me, were they posting here, I do make an effort to encourage them to raise any concerns that they have.

I certainly spend more on table-top gaming materials than any of the non-posters, and always have. I'm not sure what this says, either, other than "really interested person is really interested."

 

[Philotomy Jurament]

I think forums are representative of users that participate in forums. I don't have enough data for an informed opinion or position on how the user representation on forums relates to the complete set of users.

 

[AeroDm]

Squeaky wheel gets the grease. In this case, the squeaky wheel (only 2% of wheels) also accounts for 80% of all movement. In other words, even a broken squeaky wheel means the entire wagon cannot move. So it really doesn't matter if the squeaky wheel represents the industry or not, it is important and it influences other wheels.

 

[Umbran]

In terms of practical statistics, the behavior of forum-users is different from non-forum-users in a way that's significant enough that they should not be assumed to be a representative sample of the general population.

In technical terms, we are a population that is "self-selected", and we should be assumed to be biased in ways the general population isn't.

 

[Dannager]

In terms of practical statistics, the behavior of forum-users is different from non-forum-users in a way that's significant enough that they should not be assumed to be a representative sample of the general population.

In technical terms, we are a population that is "self-selected", and we should be assumed to be biased in ways the general population isn't.

Perfectly stated. If there's anyone who is actually able to hit Umbran with rep, please do it for me.

 

[Evilhalfling]

If I am remembering previous research on ENworld, 80% of the people here are primarily DMs (16-25% of the gaming population) not quite as bad as the EA sample, but really nothing you can generalize from.

EA also has a much larger, more passive player base.
Ive read forums for many of the computer games I play, (call it 4 forums this year) and only posted to 1.

 

[Whizbang Dustyboots]

I think forums are representative of users that participate in forums. I don't have enough data for an informed opinion or position on how the user representation on forums relates to the complete set of users.

And I don't think EA does, either. Someone over there needs to take a statistics course.

 

[Stormonu]

We are certainly a subset, as are Convetion-goers; heck, there's even some overlap .

I have no proof, but it seems likely that forumgoers tend to be fans with strong interest in the subject, our numbers do not include the more casual players - those here probably have a stonger like and preferance for D&D than your "average" player (for eample, out of my group of 6 and out of about 30 people overall whom I know to play D&D, I'm the olny one I'm aware of who posts here).

 

[Elf Witch]

Of my gaming group I am the only one who goes on forums. I won't say they are not a passionate about gaming as I am because that is not true. They just don't have time and in some cases don't like forums.

From my experience I don't think some of the issues often debated here actually represent issues I have ever dealt with in my gaming experience.