AbdulAlhazred
Legend
I don't see why you need a 'chart of failures', the GM should easily enough be able to make a 'hard move'. You set off the trap, you're poisoned. You make noise, the guards attack you. You fall off the ledge, take damage. These are all pretty vanilla sorts of basic 'hard' consequences. The GM can invoke a softer consequence too when it makes narrative sense. You try to bribe the guard, he has you thrown in the lockup.Now we are introducing masterwork picks or mithral picks as a mechanic. Players would want it to get around the penalty and other penalties would have the same thing like, instead of picks keeping breaking, maybe hinges make a lot of noise to alert the bad guys. Not I have oil and tell the DM every door that I'm oiling them.
I'm not sure if a chart of failures would help with rolling a d10 and reroll for each failure that has been negated. I do not think that a masterwork pick tracking failures chart is good, but maybe advantage to a save from breaking. Not sure how big the rabbit hole would be.
Is there a simpler way to fail forward? Do you ask the player what happens? Is it just a time penalty to keep simple such as 10 minutes per point missed by.
I would couple this with some other sorts of disciplines though. One might consider a 'one and done' kind of resolution style. So, in a given 'scene' or 'task engagement' once you roll a check, say Stealth, then there isn't a need to keep making that check over and over every time you describe your character moving. Its possible some specific element of the situation will eventually trip you up (your roll didn't beat the Perception of Eagle Eye Harry, he nabs you) but the check stands for the whole scenario. Meanwhile a consequence may just come up one time, so if it is a 'success with consequence', you can sneak through the orc camp, but at some point you're going to need to climb over a wagon to stay hidden, make a check for that too. Or if its a failure, then not only did some guards hear you, they're right in your face!
I think the '20 is a great success' (crit basically) is OK. Given that the GM decides how many and when checks happen, this isn't really doing much work anyhow. You may get to avoid another check due to big success, but there's some undefined number of more checks to accomplish your goal either way, so it is hard to say it was really beneficial. Obviously that will depend on the GM and how he feels about the situation, but this is kind of a general flaw in the way 5e's check system and GM adjudication works, but that is a whole other discussion...
What I think works about even/odd is it doesn't change the overall odds, but it adds some nuance. It should be quite easy and natural to check it, everyone knows instantly if a number is even or odd, and generally you will not instantly forget your roll, so if you roll 17 and say "17, I hit!" then you do your normal stuff, and the GM says "what did you roll?" you're player is going to know.