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Message: <blockquote data-quote="EzekielRaiden" data-source="post: 9663337" data-attributes="member: 6790260">To slightly extend this: spells often do half damage, or have some minimum effect, even if the target makes their save.Outside of Graze, which is fixed <attack ability modifier> damage, non-caster characters rarely if ever achieve the same thing. If their efforts fail, they simply fail, no effect. It doesn't take much for even a high-level Fighter (3-4 attacks per round) to go a whole round without achieving anything.Well-said. Just one party member being on, say, 1/3 HP, with no hit dice left, dipping into the communal coffers just to stay alive? That's already a powerful argument for "hey guys, we should long rest."And this, too, is part of the problem with these types of threads: people pretend that extraordinarily unlikely circumstances, or massive outright defiance of the explicit text, or the nebulous never-defined "situation" or "context" etc., somehow make probability and numbers totally 100% irrelevant and easily dismissed. Usually with BS non-arguments like "white room" etc.Quite obviously FrogReaver is talking about consistency. Do you think spellcasters can consistently, reliably, testably, outdamage sword and board characters?One-in-a-million chances happen about once in a million attempts. You don't hinge plans on one-in-a-million chances unless you have no other choice. You hinge plans around what is most likely, most expected, most probable. The nature of probability is that in most cases, near-the-center results happen, especially when you average across many attempts. That is quite literally what "regression to the mean" means; over many trials, the observed average result will hug quite close to the theoretical average most of the time.Hence why my math above went out of its way to presume few, short (but perhaps not quite short enough), weak combats, and still found the claim of 32 potions for the whole group to fall not just short, but significantly short. Even if I over-estimated numbers by double, you'd be burning through that entire stack in 3, perhaps 4 adventuring days--and that means needing another 1600 GP every single time you go to town. Assuming the town even has 32 healing potions, which again is far from guaranteed.</blockquote>

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