I see you still are ignoring how SG does damage over time, and to multiple targets. And now suddenly are factoring in saves but aren't factoring in attack roll misses. Interesting...
I did factor in attack rolls and misses and critical hits and I did factor in multiple targets - those multiple targets being the two bad guys that would be inside your expanded SG.
If you cast regular spirit guardians and then on the Fighters turn if he goes and makes 2 attacks here are the possibilities:
1. Hits 0 times (25% chance) - 0 damage
2. Hits 1 time (50% chance) - 23 damage (12 slashing from the attack + 11 Radiant from SG)
3. Hits 2 times (25% chance) - 47 damage (24 slashing from the attack + 23 Radiant from SG)
This isn't a cherry picked example. This is a common encounter type.
This is what you picked to show your point and it actually shows the opposite.
SG is a weak play for this scenario anyway, circle SG is just a weaker play. If your Cleric is going to use a 3rd level slot upcast Hold Person or upcast Command are the best plays here IMO depending on initiative order.
If the initiative order is Cleric first or if it is Fighter first and Cleric last, then the best Cleric play IMO is upcast HP targeting the Cult Fanatic and one of the Hobs. If it is any other initiative the best play is upcast Command targeting the Fanatic and 2 Hobs. I think both of those are going to generally be more effective than SG in this scenario.
So you accused me of cherry picking, then literally had to ignore several of the links (literally every other one) I provided to find one that supported you? That's rich. Also doesn't prove your claim.
The math that follows does prove my claim - in the scenario you provided to prove your point it is mathematically extremely unlikely that you will get SG damage round over round.
This is not true at all, but another assumption. I said earlier about the red flags.
Yeah I expected this. That is why I said in there you tell me what assumptions you want me to make and I will mathematically show you are still wrong. I think my assumptions are reasonable, if you don't like my assumptions, then you pick the assumptions for the scenario that you laid down.
Unless the assumption is stupid enemy or unrealistic PC builds/gear, then I am confident the math will show in my favor.
Go ahead, tell me what assumptions you want me to use!