EzekielRaiden
Follower of the Way
Perhaps. We can also view it in terms of total number of downvotes it must avoid before others catch them.
At present, if every person after my most recent post voted for the Thief, there could only be 9 more posts. If every person voted against the Thief, it would require five votes, at which point the remaining other options would split +5 points between them, meaning at minimum a further 9 votes. In the much more likely event of a mix of things, Thief can afford to take 4+floor(upvotes/2) more downvotes out of the theoretical, absolute maximum of 29 further votes, only achievable if people actively seek to prolong the competition as much as possible (e.g. always trying to keep competitors equal and always making sure that, when an option is eliminated, it has only 1 point, so that the downvote preserves the total points on the board, rather than reducing the total.) A much more plausible result is closer to 10-15 more votes with minimal waste, and dodging 5-7 downvotes before 15 votes have passed is a risky proposition.
Fighter is, of course, in the greatest peril at present, being literally one vote away from destruction. I am confident someone will swoop in to stave off oblivion for at least one more vote, but being that low is a huge temptation to be the one who killed it.
Edit: I take it back! DND_Reborn has slain the Battle Master, and the Thief now stands at 11 points. A theoretical total of 27 votes may yet occur, or a theoretical minimum of 8; the Thief must avoid 6 (plus floor(upvotes/2)) downvotes in order to win. Certainly a stronger position than before, but far from guaranteed, especially if the "Thief is boring" crowd has yet to vote today, which appears likely. (For comparison, Thief took at least 7 downvotes yesterday, and has taken 3 today. So it very much looks like a matter of which group votes first: the pro-Thief crowd, which could push the Thief up high enough that it won't be at risk, or the anti-Thief crowd, who could push it close enough that someone might swoop in and kill it, as just happened with Battle Master.)
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