My speculation is based primarily on what we have seen Wizards do thus far and the questions they're asking and the way they're asking them.
What they're asking
One thing that stood out to me is how the most recent survey asked me what adventure paths I had completed and was currently playing through. It also asked about my participation in AL. It seems like they're trying to get a feel for how quickly the APs are being digested by those who purchased them.
The Ongoing AP strategy
They are releasing "splat-like" content via UA articles on the website, along with the basic rules. This provides them with a very clear idea of how great or small the need and desire is for this kind of content by simply tracking the downloads and web analytics. They are also releasing a wide range of different kinds of splat through this method, from the skirmish rules to the sea-based campaign subclasses to eberron stuff. They clearly are playing around with a lot of rules and "splat" behind the scenes, nearly all of which seems to be built to support a particular type of adventure path. I think that they plan to continue using the AP strategy to push out new rule content. Which is, honestly, kind of amazing when you see how they handled it with EE - they made all the crunchy bits available for free in an online PDF, with the option to buy a printed version of just the crunchy bits through DriveThruRPG. Yeah, I get that some people would prefer a nice hardbound book full of splat for a class or whatever, and I get that, it's nice and convenient, but it's also risky for Wizards, from a financial perspective, to invest in that kind of product. The way they're doing it now, everyone wins, we get some splat for free with the option of getting it printed. Hate the APs? Think Elemental Evil is boring and weak but want some more spells or races? Here's the free PDF o' splat, good sir, it's on us! Maybe next time you'll consider purchasing one of our fine adventure pat-no? Okie dokie, enjoy your free splat!
I'm okay with that.
The AP strategy will remain in place, but the size of each book or release schedule will change based on what they learn from their customers from surveys and tracking AL play. The reason I expect them to continue to push this is because APs figure so prominently in the current AL strategy, which they seem committed to. They have at least one person (maybe more) on staff strictly to handle AL stuff. Given the small size of their staff overall, this tells me that AL is a big part of their ongoing strategy. I personally have mixed feelings about AL and the long-term viability of the strategy, but I'm guessing that their thinking is that FLGS are a very fertile location for them to find new customers, so pushing AL play at those locations will prompt curiosity from walk-in customers, driving them to look into the game, go on the site to download the basic rules. They then enjoy the game enough to go ahead and drop the cash for the core rulebooks at the FLGS which, according to popular theory, is where they make the "big bucks".
Physical Books
They're going to continue to operate a lean release schedule for physical books, making damn sure that there's sufficient demand for them to recoup their investment before releasing an expensive physical product in an increasingly digital age. After getting hit by the financial repercussions from the fallout of 4E, I'm guessing Hasbro/Wizards is extremely skeptical of the viability of continuing to invest much in TTRPGs in this day and age. For this reason, to Mearls & Co, each physical release has to be an absolute slam dunk, profit-wise. One bogus product that winds up losing them money and it validates all of the skeptics.
Hasbro gives WotC a budget and expects a certain ROI. If WotC can't deliver that ROI, Hasbro has a duty to its shareholders to allocate that budget elsewhere to get the best ROI to keep share prices from falling. This same mentality trickles down from WotC to its various brands and product lines, be it magic or D&D. Mearls & Co have a finite number of dollars to invest in various products using the D&D brand, and they need to maximize ROI. This is why they're focusing so much on licensing to other companies to produce the campaigns, like Kobold, Sasquatch, and now Green Ronin -- it minimizes the amount of up-front investment that they personally have to put down to make these books happen and reduces their financial exposure from each release. If it tanks, they lose less money than if they had done all of the work internally to produce the content.
The Mood at the Office
I think D&D is doing quite well. You don't make vanity office investments like a giant dragon flying on the wall of your conference room if you're not pretty happy with where things are, financially. You don't have the money and clout to afford to bring in the guy from adventure time for a project unless you're doing reasonably well. Now, I know some of you might say this isn't the case, and that companies make stupid decisions all the time like this out of ego, but I don't think the folks at the helm for D&D fit the profile of being self-absorbed or in denial. I think they've been seriously humbled by what happened with 4E as evidenced by how much effort they're putting in to collecting and acting on customer feedback. Chris Perkins, in particular, when you read the stuff he writes, was heavily influenced by D&D as a youth and growing up. You don't take the helm of a brand you cherish without being very very careful.
Digital Tools and eBooks
Look, this is the future. Print is dying and has been for some time--yes, there will always exist a niche group that will prefer the physical books and I expect Wizards will continue to serve that niche to some extent. But the profitability of electronic distribution combined with the convenience of it for many people, it's a no-brainer. They know it. The hoops I have to jump through to get a legal PDF of the 5e core rulebooks is insane in this day and age... that being said, yes, they are wrestling with how to approach the piracy issue, which, let's face it, is pretty significant, no matter how we try to spin it. Even so, the cost of sending out a PDF vs printing and shipping a rulebook is pretty huge. I think the bigger issue is that they're probably also trying to figure out a way to approach it that won't alienate their FLGS distributors that they've relied on for so long by cutting them out. Currently they seem to be married to these stores to help generate customers and awareness via AL play. They don't want to ask these stores to host games and then turn around and let the players buy the books for super cheap online, cutting the FLGS out of the action and risking losing the AL customer growth.
Growing the Brand
I think that a big part of why they're pushing the MMO and CRPG, movies, etc is that they want the D&D brand to be able to grow without relying on FLGS so that they can do whatever electronic distribution model they choose and not have to worry if a FLGS bitches and cries and refuses to carry their products, which would be a significant blow to them with the way they're currently set up. I'm crossing my fingers that, long-term, they want to grow D&D into something that's big enough that they can acquire the bulk of their new customers without relying on walk-in traffic from FLGS, which I think is smart as I think brick and mortar game stores are living on borrowed time as the years go by, based on what I've seen in my community and the fate of bookstores like Borders and soon, B&N.
I mean, speaking personally, I got into D&D because of the original Baldur's Gate CRPG back in the day. My entire playgroup did. It's not a bad strategy to try and push for more of that.
At the end of the day, I trust the current D&D WotC team. I think 4E endangered the brand to such an extent that for a while, they were probably nervous about whether or not D&D had a future. They're playing their cards very close to the chest and moving very cautiously, slowly, and deliberately with their strategy, and contrary to the great prognosticators of ENworld, I don't think this is costing them a significant number of customers. It's not like the TTRPG industry is full of a lot of major players and venture capital resulting in cutting-edge advancements that render systems obsolete every 6 months. People fondly reminisce about the "golden years" with TSR and all the content coming out, conveniently overlooking how dire TSR's finances were and how, when WotC sent someone to inspect their office and operation prior to buying them out and turning it around, they literally found tons of ancient merchandise from years and years before collecting dust on the warehouse shelf, they weren't even able to liquidate their old inventory.
Right now they are all about maximizing profits and thereby ensuring that D&D as a whole continues to remain a viable and attractive brand for Hasbro to feature on the balance sheet. People keep on pointing to Paizo and saying that's the way to do it, Vanda, why can't they be more like Paizo? and while I'm not privy to the financials of Paizo, I have a gut feeling, deep down, that they aren't as robust of a business as they put on. Maybe they are, but I can't help but notice every time I go to my FLGS, the same Paizo products are sitting on the shelves collecting dust, week after week. It makes my gut churn since I love the stuff they put out, but I just can't help but feel that they might be repeating the mistakes of TSR.
OGL
Last but not least, the OGL. I think it's coming. On his AMA, Wolfgang Bauer said that he had 3 adventures ready to go for when the OGL is finally available. Arguing that it doesn't matter because 3PP have either dropped plans by now for D&D 5E or found a way to work around it is an interesting point of view that I disagree with. I'm not about to dump a ton of my own money into commissioning artwork, editing, and printing costs for a product unless I'm 100% sure I'm not going to get in trouble with WotC. The efforts on the market right now are laughable because they're all being produced on virtually no budget because anyone with real resources is holding out until they can get a legal clear from Wizards. This is a major factor why I haven't released anything either; I'm not going to throw a stupid PDF up on DriveThru that's going to tentatively tiptoe around every single thing that could trigger a C&D and pretend it's a viable 5e product that has any chance of financial success. I've seen no reason to distrust Mearls & Co on this particular point. The moment the OGL is available, 3PP are going to be all over it, because, like it or not, D&D is the 600lb gorilla brand in the room. I don't care about cherry-picked sales figures over the course of a few years, D&D absolutely tools the competition when it comes to brand equity and household name recognition, (regardless of its merits or lack thereof as a system--I'm not saying it's the BEST TTRPG, just that it seems to be the best-known TTRPG).
