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Message: <blockquote data-quote="ECMO3" data-source="post: 9252311" data-attributes="member: 7030563">Ok I went ahead and Monte Carloed this.  I used fixed initiative (Rogue, Wizard, Barbarian, Troll, Cleric) I varied all the other d20 rolls and all the damage through 1,000,000 iterations.  I did this twice to ensure this was a large enough sample for consistent results.  I included crits.Party:Elf Rogue - 8 Strength, 16 Dex, Longbow, AC14, 8hps, athletics +3, always gets sneak attack (unless grappling),Elf Barbarian - 16 Strength, 14 dex, 16 Con, AC15, 15hps, athletics +5Elf Cleric - 16 Strength, 16 Wisdom, AC18, 8hps, athletics +3, Sanctuary, Shield of Faith, Toll The DeadElf Wizard - 16 Dex, 16 Intelligence, 6hps, Create Bonfire, Firebolt, Catapult spell with 2 vials of oilRuleset:Characters started 20 foot apart and Barbarian moved into melee on first turn.   The PC strategy was to grapple the Troll and hold him on the campfire cast by Wizard.  The Barbarian would start the grapple, if he died the Cleric would move up and grapple, if she died the Rogue would move up and grapple.  If Rogue died the Wizard would just keep Firebolting.  While the Cleric was alive, I put sanctuary on grappler if the Troll was grappled and Shield of Faith on grappler if target was not yet grappled (subject to spell slot availability).Rogue: Rogue gets sneak attack with Longbow every turn (readying an action until Barb closed on the first turn) until Barbarian and Cleric went down, then tries to grapple.Wizard: Wizard cast create Bonfire under Troll (save for damage) on first turn.  On second and third round she catapulted a flask of oil.  She uses Firebolt after 3rd round.Barbarian: Barbarian goes into Rage on first turn and grapples (with advantage), once the grapple is in place Barbarian dodges on subsequent turns.  When he is not sanctuaried he moves the Troll off and back on the fire for extra 1d8 damage on the Barbarian's turn.  Once sanctuary is up he does not move Troll back and forth.  When Rage goes down he restarts it once on the next turnTroll: Troll is pretty stupid.  He attacks the person trying to grapple him. If that person goes down he moves to the next person in line.  He keeps attacking after successfully grappled until the grappler goes down and does not use an action to break the grapple.  If he is in the grappled state at the end of his turn he takes campfire damage.  If he is not in the grappled state he moves off of the fire.Cleric:  As long as barbarian is alive Cleric uses Toll the Dead as an action.  If the Barbarian dies she takes on the grappler role.  Like the Barbarian, she dodges as an action if she successfully grapples (and survives through the Troll's turn).  She uses sanctuary on the Barbarian (or herself) if either of them successfully grapple the Troll while the Cleric still has spell slots.  She uses SOF on the Barbarian or herself if the Troll is not yet grappled and she still has spell slots or if the Troll is grappled and the grappler is already is sanctuaried and she has spell slots.Outcome  - most likely to least likelyParty wins with no losses: 72%Troll wins, TPK: 15%Party wins, Barbarian dies, Cleric, Rogue and Wizard survive: 10%Party wins, Barbarian and Cleric die, Rogue and Wizard survive: 2%Party wins, Barbarian, Cleric and Rogue die, only Wizard survives: 1%Average combat lengthMedian combat length: 4 roundsMean combat length: 4.6 rounds</blockquote>

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