D&D Market Analysis (Adventure Levels)

[Darian Damas]

Hello publishers (and gamers)!

Having nothing better do to this warm and sunny Saturday afternoon, I went through the (D&D 3E) adventure lists of my two favorite online rpg-stores. Why? I wanted some hard numbers that show what we all know: Most published adventures are written for low character levels. Okay, that's nothing new - but how about the actual level distribution?

This is what I found (among 60 adventures):
31% are level 1
53% are level 1 -- 4
75% are level 1 -- 7
90% are level 1 -- 10
95% are level 1 -- 13
hence only the remaining 5% are level 14+

(Do you understand my table or is it too confusing?)

I find these numbers quite interesting. There really is a significant "overweight" at the low adventure levels! And the number of adventures at each level rapidly decreases (as the level increases).

My questions now to all D&D 3E publishers out there are:
(pick and chose)

1. Were you aware of this level distribution?
2. Are you satisfied with it?
3. What level segment are you aiming your productions at? (in the past? in the future?)
4. Do you have any idea of what adventure levels the gamers (i.e. the buyers) want?
5. So what levels do the buyers want?
6. Do the retailers have any opinions when you try to sell them your adventures?

The fifth question could also be answered by all the non-publishers (i.e. the 'gamers'), but that should probably be another in another thread. (Has such a poll already been done here at d20reviews? What were the results?)

Low level adventures are easier to write since only the basic mechanics are used. Many campaigns start at low levels. That's two reasons why low level adventures are so common, I think.

Publishers in this segment have to make their adventures outstanding in some way - otherwise the product will "drown" in the bottomless sea of 3E third party releases.

High level adventures are much harder to write (and play). The high level spells and special abilities/qualities must be taken into account. That's basically why high level adventures are so uncommon.

Publishers in the 'high' segment don't have to struggle to make their adventures noticed. However, many gamers find the high levels somewhat scary. Nevertheless, a well-written high level adventure that in a pedagogical way helps the DM with the mechanics, could possibly sell very well.

If I were a publisher, I would go for the mid level-range. There aren't that many adventures in that segment yet, but a significant number of gamers have reached those levels in their campaigns. The mechanics and style of the mid level-adventures at the same time offers easy standards and flexible options.

So, dear publisher, what do YOU have to say about the adventure level distribution?

(Ooops, this post got longer than I thought...)

Kind regards
/Darian Damas

 

[JohnNephew]

The lowest-selling of the Penumbra adventures are, coincidentally, the highest level. I am reluctant to read too much into that, because they are also the most recently released. Still, it would be interesting to know if in general lower-level adventures actually sell more. It's possible that more GMs run low-level campaigns; or, more precisely, fewer campaigns progress beyond mid-levels, and the ones that do are less likely to use published adventures.

Honestly, I don't have enough confidence in what data I have to determine it one way or the other.

 

[Lady Dragon]

For years now for easy reference purposes I make out a colored index card for all of my published adventures I put 1-3 on yellow cards 4-6 on green 7-9 on blue 10-12 on purple and 13+ on pink.

I do this for all adventures from all sources be published module or dugeon adventures.This inclues all 3 editions and all d20 stuff.

By far the biggest segment is green or 4-6 blue and yellow or close so a call them tied for second purple doesn't really have that much and Pink is only a tiny section and thats not because I don't obtain them because they are my favorites.

So basically I'm saying your right there are very few very high level adventures out there for any edition.

 

[Arcane Runes Press]

The lowest-selling of the Penumbra adventures are, coincidentally, the highest level. I am reluctant to read too much into that, because they are also the most recently released. Still, it would be interesting to know if in general lower-level adventures actually sell more. It's possible that more GMs run low-level campaigns; or, more precisely, fewer campaigns progress beyond mid-levels, and the ones that do are less likely to use published adventures.

I think you have the right of it. By the time characters hit high levels, their character capabilities can vary WILDLY from party to party, depending on party composition, what spells they know, what feats they have and, especially, what magic items they command. At low levels there are alot of creatures that are generic enough to be good foes for everyone, even if the party makeup is wildly diverse. At higher levels, the effectiveness of foes and other hazards is 100% dependant on the party's exact abilities. Pick the wrong opponent and you have either 100% Party Kill or pathetic roll over.

Patrick

 

[trancejeremy]

It's also hard to get high level characters to follow along a set course, making adventure writing difficult. Travel spells, divinations, etc can let PCs bypass what they want.

 

[Walter_J]

For years now for easy reference purposes I make out a colored index card for all of my published adventures I put 1-3 on yellow cards 4-6 on green 7-9 on blue 10-12 on purple and 13+ on pink.

I do this for all adventures from all sources be published module or dugeon adventures.This inclues all 3 editions and all d20 stuff.

By far the biggest segment is green or 4-6 blue and yellow or close so a call them tied for second purple doesn't really have that much and Pink is only a tiny section and thats not because I don't obtain them because they are my favorites.

So basically I'm saying your right there are very few very high level adventures out there for any edition.

Yeah, I think 1E seemed to really focus on mid-range (say 4-8). I'm not counting B's, X's or anything.

 

[Walter_J]

The lowest-selling of the Penumbra adventures are, coincidentally, the highest level. I am reluctant to read too much into that, because they are also the most recently released. Still, it would be interesting to know if in general lower-level adventures actually sell more. It's possible that more GMs run low-level campaigns; or, more precisely, fewer campaigns progress beyond mid-levels, and the ones that do are less likely to use published adventures.

Honestly, I don't have enough confidence in what data I have to determine it one way or the other.

For what its worth, I started MANY a campaign by yanking a 1st-3rd level module off the shelf. While party played through the module, I prepared for the future. After the first adventure, modules were used much less, and rarely in original form. Now between campaigns we'd often put together parties of "post campaign" characters and run through a module or three. I think G1 saw more action then any other three modules I own. (I rarely ran G3 when people were playing "old favorites." The odds of total destruction were just way to high. At least the way I ran it)
This was probably 10 to 15 years ago though.

 

[Synicism]

It's also hard to get high level characters to follow along a set course, making adventure writing difficult. Travel spells, divinations, etc can let PCs bypass what they want.

Agreed. Designing an adventure for PC's with access to scrying, teleportation, and divination magic is really difficult without creating bizarre environmental conditions that mysteriously thwart such things (Labyrinth of Madness, anyone?). Plus it's hard to come up with a decent challenge for powerful PC's. They tend to either bowl the module over or get completely trashed with very little middle ground.

 

[Darian Damas]

Thanks!

Thank you all for your insightful answers!

If I understand you correctly, you say that high-level adventures must be tailored for the specific PCs. In other words, only the DM can write adventures for his party - and only for his party.

Is this really true? Perhaps. In any case it would certainly help if the adventures not only were marked with "suitable level" but also had a list of necessary/desirable high-level abilities.

The writers could also try to create encounters that can be solved in several ways. That would make the adventure suitable for a variety of PCs. The text could include sidebars with options for different types of adventuring parties.

If nothing else is said, isn't it always assumed that all parties consist of one Wizard, one Fighter, one Cleric and one Rogue? (Including at least one human, at least one non-evil PC, and all four at the same level?) With that in mind, I hope it would be possible to create generic high-level adventures, using the multiple solutions approach.

Will we ever see published (and playable) Epic-level adventures? (Not that I am sure I would want them, but anyway...)

/Darian Damas

 

[smetzger]

Re: Thanks!

The writers could also try to create encounters that can be solved in several ways. That would make the adventure suitable for a variety of PCs. The text could include sidebars with options for different types of adventuring parties.

I think quite the opposite has to be done for high level adventures. For high level adventures the author should try to plug all the holes. The PCs are powerful enough that they will find someway around the obstacles.

I agree we need more high level stuff. I am pretty sure the commercial adventures mirror the free adventures. If you look at my free adventure page you can see that there are very few high level adventures.