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D&D Movie Hit or Flop?
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<blockquote data-quote="OB1" data-source="post: 8974759" data-attributes="member: 6796241"><p>Average moviegoers don't pay much attention to week 2 numbers, so having a solid opening weekend is far more important than the week 2 drop off (as long as you aren't dropping 70%), which the preview screenings will definitely help with. If D&D can get to $5-7M in previews (reported Friday) that should lead into a solid opening (JW4 did 7M on way to 70M).</p><p></p><p>The big fight in week 2 will be against the Super Mario Bros movie, which is tracking at a $70M opening, but apparently the review embargo for that film is being lifted just 6 hours before the film opens next Wednesday (usually a sign that the film is not very good). That may not matter much given Mario brand recognition, but could allow D&D to stay competitive that week (which is spring break for much of the US). </p><p></p><p>Not much more competition until GotG3 in May, so D&D will rely on positive word of mouth through April to push it's totals towards $400M worldwide to be a success. That will largely come down to how well it plays under 25 and with women as well as how much repeat business it get's from D&D fans. I can see a situation where Mario crushes D&D on week 2, but D&D pulls back ahead in week 3.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="OB1, post: 8974759, member: 6796241"] Average moviegoers don't pay much attention to week 2 numbers, so having a solid opening weekend is far more important than the week 2 drop off (as long as you aren't dropping 70%), which the preview screenings will definitely help with. If D&D can get to $5-7M in previews (reported Friday) that should lead into a solid opening (JW4 did 7M on way to 70M). The big fight in week 2 will be against the Super Mario Bros movie, which is tracking at a $70M opening, but apparently the review embargo for that film is being lifted just 6 hours before the film opens next Wednesday (usually a sign that the film is not very good). That may not matter much given Mario brand recognition, but could allow D&D to stay competitive that week (which is spring break for much of the US). Not much more competition until GotG3 in May, so D&D will rely on positive word of mouth through April to push it's totals towards $400M worldwide to be a success. That will largely come down to how well it plays under 25 and with women as well as how much repeat business it get's from D&D fans. I can see a situation where Mario crushes D&D on week 2, but D&D pulls back ahead in week 3. [/QUOTE]
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