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Message: <blockquote data-quote="Zardnaar" data-source="post: 9072020" data-attributes="member: 6716779">1.5 is also generous but I think some movies can do it on that multiplier. You kind of need a big opening weekend/frontloaded in domestic market. X2 is often used as it's kind of undeniable. For this reason. Box office take is reported to a 3rd party. The studios can't really hide it or massage it. Hollywood accounting determines who gets what.  So the thing is studios report the production and sometimes marketing costs to the Hollywood press. They take it a face value an iirc Deadline/Variety and Hollywood Reporter are all owned by the same company. They then get used as sources. However the studios also tell porkies often under reporting the numbers. I think Dial of Destiny is latest movie to do this. 280-300 million became 329 million production costs. X2 covers the porkies as well. If marketing budget is not known often X2.5 is used. Neither are perfect it doesn't work well on low budget movies that blow up or movies that over perform in foreign market espicially China. Anyway expenses X1.5 gives us (approx) 325 million. 2.5 production costs is 375 million and X2 expenses is 420 million (and covers it if under reported). 2.5 assumes the back end covers marketing costs. Theh higher numbers basically means the movie most likely is an undeniable hit come what may. The guy I used for the 1.5 multiplier for TLM estimated HAT Break even at 375 in another video.TLM reformed better domestically can't remember HAT. In my OP I did reference if it's unclear if a movie has broken even. In HATs case (for me) I consider that in the 325-375 million range. HAT was a fairly typical movie performance  wise in terms of foreign/domestic ratio, drop off rate etc.  Even had a decent drop off rate but not exceptional. If it landed in the 325-375 million range I wouldn't be calling it a flop if it cleared 2.5 ratio I would be calling it a hit. I would say it underperformed either as it doesn't really have anything else to compare with as it's not part of a trilogy or series etc.</blockquote>

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