Reply to thread

Message: <blockquote data-quote="pemerton" data-source="post: 6862851" data-attributes="member: 42582">As I read  [MENTION=5834]Celtavian[/MENTION]'s post, the bonus to hit is +11.5 (+4 prof, +5 DEX, +2 magic, +1 class feature (close quarters shooting), +2 class feature (archery), +2.5 bless, -5 feat) which means the chance to hit AC 17 is around 75%.Celtavian states that four of five attacks hit.The likelihood of either 4 or 5 of 5 attacks hitting, with a chance to hit of 3/4, is (3/4)^5 plus (3^4 * 1 * 5)/(4^5), which equals 8*(3^4)/4^5, which equals 648/1028, or a little better than 60%.Winning a coin toss is obviously luckier than losing it, but it's not all that lucky.This party is 10th level. That is less than the spell load-out for a single 10th level full caster (3 of 4 1st level spells, zero of 3 2nd level spells (but we know some Shield spells were also used, notionally consuming some of these slots), 1 of 3 3rd level spells, 1 of 3 4th level spells, and 2 of 2 5th level spells).The party is 6 PCs. Even though we aren't given the details of their healing, and even allowing for the vagaries of memory, that doesn't seem like outrageous nova-ing for a Deadly encounter. At 10th level a Deadly encounter is more than 1/4 of the budget (not factoring in number multiples), and what [MENTION=5834]Celtavian[/MENTION] describes doesn't seem like more than 1/4 of the PCs' resources.</blockquote>