It is neither unjustified nor dismissive. It's an observation.
To a first approximation, there are two kinds of gamers: those who buy multiple games, and those who pick one game and stick to it. Among these latter gamers, the products are not like toothpaste here having gotten one means they won't get another. The competition here isn't so much with each other as it is with the customer's internal guidelines as to hat makes a good game. Buying Pathfinder does not mean this person won't buy 4e, so they aren't really in competition for this customer.
For the latter bunch, there's more strong competition in general. However, for 4e the dynamic here is more complicated. When 4e came out, people didn't need Pathfinder, or anything else, to continue playing 3e. Given the controversies, and the differences between 4e and 3e, I honestly don't think Pathfinder's existence (at the time, still a beta-test question mark) was a major player in the decision to not play 4e. I think the folks who play Pathfinder would have stuck with 3e anyway. They are, I suspect, much better off and happier because Pathfinder exists, but that's a different concern.
If folks weren't going to buy 4e whether or not Pathfinder existed, then they aren't in competition.
In a couple years, this argument will no longer hold - we'd be talking more about people who have to make a fresh choice between the games, and they'll be in more direct competition. But for now, I don't think Pathfinder sales are noticeably cutting into 4e sales.
Well, I think WotC did full well expect to lose some 3e players when they brought out 4e. Whether someone else picked them up afterwards wasn't really a concern, as they would have been lost either way.
Well, based on both the experiences of my game store and the sales at my FLGS, I have to say you are wrong Umbran.
The majority of the gaming groups in my area switched to 4e when it came out. The major and active groups pre-ordered the core books and all the products coming out.
They were EXCITED to have a new edition of the game.
We sold a TON of it at launch. I bought a ton of it myself! We gave 4e its chance. We bought it and we played it. Myself I purchased
every single book for 4e all the way up to the DMG II. I had a DDI subscription to boot!
But we didn't love it.
With the Pathfinder Beta having come out right around the launch of 4e, it HAS been in competition with 4e since the start. While the final release of pathfinder only happened a year later, there have been QUALITY products on the shelf with the Pathfinder brand on them for months BEFORE 4e's launch.
Leading up to Pathfinder, we took notice! Several game groups in my area did. We played the Beta for awhile as sort of a testing the waters situation, we read the adventures and adventure path material...
Golarion was one of the BEST game worlds we've seen in a long while! Especially compared to the '2 books and forget it' format for the 4e game worlds.
And slowly, nearly all of the 4e game groups in my area became Pathfinder game groups.
People traded in their 4e collections in droves at my store. For a period of time we had to STOP taking the trades, because we were getting flooded with stock and no one was buying it!
As of right now, Pathfinder rule books out sell 4e rulebooks on the shelf. Our Pre-Owned 3.5 / 3e era books out sell the 4e supplements easily.
Of the 6 most active 4e game groups I know of in the area that, only 2 of them still play 4e (And one of those have recently purchased Pathfinder rulebooks in strong numbers...). 3 of us have switched to Pathfinder entirely, and 1 plays star wars.
Yes, this in all anecdotal evidence. But it shows that there certainly are areas where Pathfinder and 4e compete.
I'm certain the numbers balance differently in different areas, where 4e is dominate.
And even MORE importantly to existing customers. Because the active groups in our area are playing PATHFINDER now, the new players that are just now getting into Role Playing... are being absorbed into the Pathfinder groups.
THAT is undeniably a lost 4e sale there. They haven't formed any opinion on game system yet, and they will play whatever the group they get invited to plays. And right now they are joining Pathfinder groups.
Gamers do not have infinite money or more importantly infinite time. I wish we did! Supporting and playing multiple systems in the /SAME/ genre is a lot harder to justify than, say, playing two completely different games.
So in short: Yes,
Pathfinder and 4e DO compete. I do not think it is the next Blood War, but gaming dollars are being spent on Paizo Products that are not being spent on WotC products.
(see what I mean, you're muddying the waters, throwing off the curve, changing the premise...
