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<blockquote data-quote="Esker" data-source="post: 7637126" data-attributes="member: 6966824">Let's step through a hypothetical race and see what happens. The rogue has 14 CON, the fighter 16. Both have a 30' base speed. Rounds 1-2: The rogue sprints away, getting 180'. The fighter only makes it 120'. Round 3: Rogue uses their last free dash, and attempts a second. DC 10 CON check, which they have about a 2/3 chance of succeeding at, and a 1/3 chance of failing. The fighter still has plenty of free dashes left. So the rogue is either 90' ahead or 60' and exhausted.Rounds 4-5: Rogue has to make a check again, whereas the fighter doesn't. On average the rogue has succeeded twice and failed once between rounds 3-5, making it to a total distance of 360' to the fighter's 300', but has taken a level of exhaustion.Round 6: The fighter gets their last free dash, whereas the rogue has to make a CON check with disadvantage. Roughly 50% chance of maintaining their lead and a 50% chance of losing 30' and taking a second level of exhaustion, halving their speed.Round 7: If the rogue made their check, they still have a 60' lead, but they have to make another check at disadvantage. Though now the fighter has to make a check too, with a 70% chance of success. So there's about a 2 in 12 chance the fighter will have caught up to the rogue by this point, another 3 in 12 that the lead is down to 30' with the rogue at half speed, about 2 in 12 that the rogue holds steady but is reduced to half speed, about 2 in 12 that the rogue holds steady without a speed reduction, and about 1 in 12 that the rogue actually gains. The situation declines from here for the rogue. In the end it's very likely the fighter will catch up within the first minute of the chase.</blockquote>

[QUOTE="Esker, post: 7637126, member: 6966824"] Let's step through a hypothetical race and see what happens. The rogue has 14 CON, the fighter 16. Both have a 30' base speed. Rounds 1-2: The rogue sprints away, getting 180'. The fighter only makes it 120'. Round 3: Rogue uses their last free dash, and attempts a second. DC 10 CON check, which they have about a 2/3 chance of succeeding at, and a 1/3 chance of failing. The fighter still has plenty of free dashes left. So the rogue is either 90' ahead or 60' and exhausted. Rounds 4-5: Rogue has to make a check again, whereas the fighter doesn't. On average the rogue has succeeded twice and failed once between rounds 3-5, making it to a total distance of 360' to the fighter's 300', but has taken a level of exhaustion. Round 6: The fighter gets their last free dash, whereas the rogue has to make a CON check with disadvantage. Roughly 50% chance of maintaining their lead and a 50% chance of losing 30' and taking a second level of exhaustion, halving their speed. Round 7: If the rogue made their check, they still have a 60' lead, but they have to make another check at disadvantage. Though now the fighter has to make a check too, with a 70% chance of success. So there's about a 2 in 12 chance the fighter will have caught up to the rogue by this point, another 3 in 12 that the lead is down to 30' with the rogue at half speed, about 2 in 12 that the rogue holds steady but is reduced to half speed, about 2 in 12 that the rogue holds steady without a speed reduction, and about 1 in 12 that the rogue actually gains. The situation declines from here for the rogue. In the end it's very likely the fighter will catch up within the first minute of the chase. [/QUOTE]

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