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<blockquote data-quote="Ancalagon" data-source="post: 9512279" data-attributes="member: 23">I concur that a dragon would not engage without really stacking the deck in its favor.&nbsp;&nbsp; The dragon has learned that with a bit of luck, the PCs could win.I've seen 2 battles this year alone where the PCs won when they shouldn't have.2 weeks ago, in a battle vs a powerful gnoll lord (the Lord of the Feast! from Drakkenheim), the party took 12 attacks from said boss monster, each with a +9 bonus to hit.&nbsp; One PC has a great AC but he never made himself a target.&nbsp; The rest of the party is in the 17-19 AC range - good, but not amazing.Of those 12 attacks, two hit.&nbsp; Of course the party won.&nbsp; (the LotF had plenty of minions of course) Last summer, my PC (level 8 mutagenist) was forced into a duel with a CR 15 paladin (Theodore Marshal, from Drakkenheim).&nbsp; Now my PC managed to convince him to do it barenuckle (benefiting me) and my PC is basically built to fight bosses... the odds were still massively in his favor.&nbsp; But because of all of the following<ul>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">making a save with 15% chance of success</li>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">having advantage once/round because of my familiar</li>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">getting decent rolls vs his poor ones</li>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">inflicting 1d6+2 damage each time I was hit (noxious blood)</li>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">regenerating 5 hp/round</li>
<li data-xf-list-type="ul">having a 15 hp boost from aid</li>
</ul>I won with 7 hp left.&nbsp; &nbsp;So yeah, if you want to live long, you have to stack the fights in your favor.&nbsp; 90% sure to win is not enough.Source:&nbsp; I've been Ancalagon for almost 30 years now <img src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/joypixels/assets/8.0/png/unicode/64/1f61b.png" class="smilie smilie--emoji" loading="lazy" width="64" height="64" alt=":P" title="Stick out tongue&nbsp; &nbsp; :P"&nbsp; data-smilie="7"data-shortname=":P" /></blockquote>

[QUOTE="Ancalagon, post: 9512279, member: 23"] I concur that a dragon would not engage without [I]really[/I] stacking the deck in its favor. The dragon has learned that with a bit of luck, the PCs could win. I've seen 2 battles this year alone where the PCs won when they shouldn't have. 2 weeks ago, in a battle vs a powerful gnoll lord (the Lord of the Feast! from Drakkenheim), the party took 12 attacks from said boss monster, each with a +9 bonus to hit. One PC has a great AC but he never made himself a target. The rest of the party is in the 17-19 AC range - good, but not amazing. Of those 12 attacks, [I]two[/I] hit. Of course the party won. (the LotF had plenty of minions of course) Last summer, my PC (level 8 mutagenist) was forced into a duel with a CR 15 paladin (Theodore Marshal, from Drakkenheim). Now my PC managed to convince him to do it barenuckle (benefiting me) and my PC is basically built to fight bosses... the odds were still massively in his favor. But because of [I]all[/I] of the following [LIST] [*]making a save with 15% chance of success [*]having advantage once/round because of my familiar [*]getting decent rolls vs his poor ones [*]inflicting 1d6+2 damage each time I was hit (noxious blood) [*]regenerating 5 hp/round [*]having a 15 hp boost from aid [/LIST] I won with 7 hp left. So yeah, if you want to live long, you have to stack the fights in your favor. 90% sure to win is not enough. Source: I've been Ancalagon for almost 30 years now :P [/QUOTE]

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