D&D 5E Dragon Dilemma - Opinions? Advice? All are welcome!

ezo

Get off my lawn!
So, here is the situation:

Last session the PCs (four 7th levels) encountered an Adult Black Dragon (CR 14) and its Quasit familiar. I won't bore you with the details of the encounter, but summarize the conclusion.

One PC dead. Our "healer" has max HP, but a single 1st-level slot left. Our "sniper/scout" is fine--no damage and still has full (albeit minor) spells available. Our "tank" was at 1 hp (went down but Relentless Endurance kicked in) but the healer bumped him up to about 20ish IIRC. We have a Giant Constrictor Snake as well via Staff of the Python at our disposal.

The dragon was down to under 10 hp when it managed to fly away and out of the PCs' range. It has no Legendary Resistance left and its familiar was killed in the fight. Its only spell remaining is find familiar.

We ended the session just at the end of the battle.

The PCs have a good plan. Used the water breathing they have remaining (nearly a full 24 hours) to "walk" down stream under the river to help escape detection. Find a decent place to hide out, get in a short rest, and move on, hopefully avoiding detection. The short rest will replenish hit points well enough and the fighter's features, but the "healer" won't regain any spells, and they are still down in number.

The dragon has flown away to "lick his wounds". He will cast find familiar again (since he hasn't used it today) and have his familar begin the search for the PCs. Then the dragon will also short rest, recovering nearly all his HP for round 2.

I've already done "all the calculations" concerning the time the familiar will take searching and backtracking (having not found the PCs) and meet its master. When the dragon continues the hunt, the PCs have only about a 1 in 3 chance of evading discovery.

Here's the dilemma: down one PC, and barely successful at defeating the dragon the first time, I see little chance of the PCs escaping a TPK if it comes to another fight. Talking their way out of it is most likely too far gone at this point and the one PC who stood a decent chance is the one dead. Fleeing will probably result in them being hunted down one at a time. Surrender just isn't in the nature of the dragon to accept IMO, especially after suffering the humilation of the first defeat.

So, as I currently see it... if the PCs manage to evade the dragon, all is well. However, if not, I see this coming to another battle and round two will nearly certainly be a TPK unless (as DM) I decide to intervine--which personally I am loathe to do.

Any thoughts? I will feel badly if there is a TPK, but as impartial referee I don't feel good about making it "so the players survive" (even if not somehow "winning").

EDIT: the PCs are moving at slow pace to allow them to Stealth all the time.

EDIT: updating very optimal stealth conditions and imposing disadvantage on the dragon's passive Perception, the PCs chances of evading by stealth jump to about 56%... not too bad.
 
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Escape should be the plan for the PCs, for all the reasons you've mentioned. Is there any reason they can't escape completely underwater? The quasit isn't necessarily going to look for them that way, and unless the water is really clear, it's unlikely to randomly notice them. I'd give this a very good chance of success, myself.
 

Why does the short rest seem to benefit the dragon so much more than the PCs? Hit point wise, anyway.

I, too, think that escaping underwater is a good plan. The quasit doesn't have a water form and is likely slower than the PCs. Assuming the PCs push themselves, I can see a minor demon try looking for an hour, get bored / lazy, and report back after a few idle hours and state that it couldn't find the party. If the quasit is definitely coming back in a short period of time, I suppose the next thing is that does the dragon know they have water breathing? If not, it could just fly about and simply not find them.
 
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Escape should be the plan for the PCs, for all the reasons you've mentioned. Is there any reason they can't escape completely underwater? The quasit isn't necessarily going to look for them that way, and unless the water is really clear, it's unlikely to randomly notice them. I'd give this a very good chance of success, myself.
The black dragon will most likely scent they went back into the water, more expecting them to come back out downstream someplace. But with the quasit scanning downstream to the lake and not finding them, the dragon will double back to continue the search. Since it can swim and breath underwater, and knowing the PCs had magic, it will check the water while ssearching the shore for signs of escape. While it is possible they might evade detection via the false trail and other methods they are planning, unless one of those work, the chance of evading detection during the dragon's search is the 1 in 3 chance I mentioned.

With a passive Perception of 21, only the rogue (sniper/scout) has any real chance of escaping solo. The tank and healer suck at steatlh. I'm using a group check, hoping one of the two makes it, and that the rogue will, in which case the group check will be a success.

Why does the short rest seem to benefit the dragon so much more than the PCs? Hit point wise, anyway.
Well, spending all its HD (17d12+85) will bring it back to max hp on average, but maybe a bit lower (about 30% change to get less than max HP since it has 8 hp currently). It won't regain any Legendary Resistances or it expended spells.

As for the PCs...
  • The rogue is max HP and hasn't expended any spells, so he's full up. He has some lost ammo, but that is all.
  • The fighter is very low HP, but by spending most (to all) his HD, he should be full up or close to it! The only feature he won't recover is his Runic Shield since that is expended and regains on a long rest only.
  • The healer (sorcerer/cleric) will regain his Preserve Life (CD) and his Favored by the Gods, but that's it. His HP is already max as well, but neither class offers recovery of spell slots however.
So... every creature regains what it is supposed to regain. 🤷‍♂️
 

The black dragon will most likely scent they went back into the water, more expecting them to come back out downstream someplace. But with the quasit scanning downstream to the lake and not finding them, the dragon will double back to continue the search. Since it can swim and breath underwater
how deep and wide is that river they are 'hiding' in?
 

how deep and wide is that river they are 'hiding' in?
It varies, of course, but in general maybe 120 feet wide on average and maybe 5-10 feet deep in the middle in most places. Most regions are much shallower, of course, so the only chance they have to "walk beneath the water" is in or near the center, and even then in many places they won't even be able to do that and will be visible. 🤷‍♂️

But, it's the best strategy they've come up with so far.

I've updated the OP to reflect the PCs are moving at slow pace to allow them to Stealth all the time.
 



've updated the OP to reflect the PCs are moving at slow pace to allow them to Stealth all the time.
under water I'd skip that, but then the water resistance is probably slowing me down anyway... my question was more whether the dragon has enough room to swim in it, because if he does not, he might well miss them altogether. Sounds like in many places he would not be able to
 
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IME players will tend to surprise you, especially when their backs are against the wall. Just make sure you allow any reasonable escape plan, and I bet their odds are better than you think.

That said if the worst happens, well then the players have a really cool TPK by dragon story. Maybe even cool enough that their next PCs are all related to the TPK in some way (one is a "famed Dragonslayer" (even more hilarious if they start around level 1), one is a relative, one is trying to hunt down a former PC who owed them money, endless possibilities...)
 

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