ezo
Get off my lawn!
So, here is the situation:
Last session the PCs (four 7th levels) encountered an Adult Black Dragon (CR 14) and its Quasit familiar. I won't bore you with the details of the encounter, but summarize the conclusion.
One PC dead. Our "healer" has max HP, but a single 1st-level slot left. Our "sniper/scout" is fine--no damage and still has full (albeit minor) spells available. Our "tank" was at 1 hp (went down but Relentless Endurance kicked in) but the healer bumped him up to about 20ish IIRC. We have a Giant Constrictor Snake as well via Staff of the Python at our disposal.
The dragon was down to under 10 hp when it managed to fly away and out of the PCs' range. It has no Legendary Resistance left and its familiar was killed in the fight. Its only spell remaining is find familiar.
We ended the session just at the end of the battle.
The PCs have a good plan. Used the water breathing they have remaining (nearly a full 24 hours) to "walk" down stream under the river to help escape detection. Find a decent place to hide out, get in a short rest, and move on, hopefully avoiding detection. The short rest will replenish hit points well enough and the fighter's features, but the "healer" won't regain any spells, and they are still down in number.
The dragon has flown away to "lick his wounds". He will cast find familiar again (since he hasn't used it today) and have his familar begin the search for the PCs. Then the dragon will also short rest, recovering nearly all his HP for round 2.
I've already done "all the calculations" concerning the time the familiar will take searching and backtracking (having not found the PCs) and meet its master. When the dragon continues the hunt, the PCs have only about a 1 in 3 chance of evading discovery.
Here's the dilemma: down one PC, and barely successful at defeating the dragon the first time, I see little chance of the PCs escaping a TPK if it comes to another fight. Talking their way out of it is most likely too far gone at this point and the one PC who stood a decent chance is the one dead. Fleeing will probably result in them being hunted down one at a time. Surrender just isn't in the nature of the dragon to accept IMO, especially after suffering the humilation of the first defeat.
So, as I currently see it... if the PCs manage to evade the dragon, all is well. However, if not, I see this coming to another battle and round two will nearly certainly be a TPK unless (as DM) I decide to intervine--which personally I am loathe to do.
Any thoughts? I will feel badly if there is a TPK, but as impartial referee I don't feel good about making it "so the players survive" (even if not somehow "winning").
EDIT: the PCs are moving at slow pace to allow them to Stealth all the time.
EDIT: updating very optimal stealth conditions and imposing disadvantage on the dragon's passive Perception, the PCs chances of evading by stealth jump to about 56%... not too bad.
Last session the PCs (four 7th levels) encountered an Adult Black Dragon (CR 14) and its Quasit familiar. I won't bore you with the details of the encounter, but summarize the conclusion.
One PC dead. Our "healer" has max HP, but a single 1st-level slot left. Our "sniper/scout" is fine--no damage and still has full (albeit minor) spells available. Our "tank" was at 1 hp (went down but Relentless Endurance kicked in) but the healer bumped him up to about 20ish IIRC. We have a Giant Constrictor Snake as well via Staff of the Python at our disposal.
The dragon was down to under 10 hp when it managed to fly away and out of the PCs' range. It has no Legendary Resistance left and its familiar was killed in the fight. Its only spell remaining is find familiar.
We ended the session just at the end of the battle.
The PCs have a good plan. Used the water breathing they have remaining (nearly a full 24 hours) to "walk" down stream under the river to help escape detection. Find a decent place to hide out, get in a short rest, and move on, hopefully avoiding detection. The short rest will replenish hit points well enough and the fighter's features, but the "healer" won't regain any spells, and they are still down in number.
The dragon has flown away to "lick his wounds". He will cast find familiar again (since he hasn't used it today) and have his familar begin the search for the PCs. Then the dragon will also short rest, recovering nearly all his HP for round 2.
I've already done "all the calculations" concerning the time the familiar will take searching and backtracking (having not found the PCs) and meet its master. When the dragon continues the hunt, the PCs have only about a 1 in 3 chance of evading discovery.
Here's the dilemma: down one PC, and barely successful at defeating the dragon the first time, I see little chance of the PCs escaping a TPK if it comes to another fight. Talking their way out of it is most likely too far gone at this point and the one PC who stood a decent chance is the one dead. Fleeing will probably result in them being hunted down one at a time. Surrender just isn't in the nature of the dragon to accept IMO, especially after suffering the humilation of the first defeat.
So, as I currently see it... if the PCs manage to evade the dragon, all is well. However, if not, I see this coming to another battle and round two will nearly certainly be a TPK unless (as DM) I decide to intervine--which personally I am loathe to do.
Any thoughts? I will feel badly if there is a TPK, but as impartial referee I don't feel good about making it "so the players survive" (even if not somehow "winning").
EDIT: the PCs are moving at slow pace to allow them to Stealth all the time.
EDIT: updating very optimal stealth conditions and imposing disadvantage on the dragon's passive Perception, the PCs chances of evading by stealth jump to about 56%... not too bad.
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