Young Adult Red Dragon vs Level 20 Rogue
Having read Endur's post about the Young Adult Red Dragon, I disagreed strongly (strongly enough to create an account to speak).
It would be a serious problem if a CR 13 Young Adult Red Dragon could defeat a Level 20 character in combat, but fortunately this isn't the case.
Let me use a 25-point buy, vanilla Rogue as an example, since in my opinion Rogues lose the most from being alone.
Derrick the Uninspiring has purchased the following items, although some have been increased in price to be slotless or a new slot:
+6 stat items for all stats, +5 mithral chain shirt, +5 mithral large shield,
+5 keen wounding holy rapier, +5 amulet of natural armour, +5 ring of protection, +5 cloak of resistance,
circlet of persuasion, wings of flying, ring of freedom of movement. He has plenty of gold left to buy useless items he picked up laong his career.
Caveat: I made this off the top of my head without really trying hard
(for instance the sword is keen and I ignore criticals, which helps the poor dragon--I just like Keen rapiers).
I'm sure I missed something, but this rogue could easily be made more powerful with a bit of effort.
Derrick the Uninspiring, Lawful Good Halfling Rogue
Strength 16, Dexterity 28, Constitution 20, Intelligence 15, Wisdom 14, Charisma 20
HP: 172 (average rounding down)
Initiative: +12
AC: 43 (+9 armour, +6 Dex, +1 Size, +7 shield, +5 natural, +5 deflection)
Saves: Fortitude +17, Reflex +23, Will +14
Attacks: +30/+25/+20 (+15 base, +5 weapon, +9 Dex, +1 Size)
Skills: Bluff +34 (23 ranks, +5 Cha, +3 Circlet, +3 Skill Focus)
Feats: Skill Focus [Bluff], Combat Expertise, Improved Feint, Improved Initiative, Others
Rogue Special Abilities: Skill Mastery [Bluff], Improved Evasion, Crippling Strikes, Your Favourite
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I assume no preparation and also no surprise
Derrick wins Initiative 80.5% of the time (1- (1/400 * sigma(x,x,1,12))), but the dragon is far away so it can fly in and go first
If the dragon is smart, he will run.
If not, the dragon will probably use its breath weapon on Derrick, and he saves except on a 1, in which case he takes average 27 damage.
Derrick closes (breath weapon is a 50-foot length cone, so he has more than enough movement), and the dragon can hit on a 16 with the AoO for
average 24 damage (rounded up). Then Derrick attacks with Combat Expertise 5, and he hits except on a 1 for average 12 (rounded down) damage.
Also, the dragon loses 1 Con, which will set him up to lose 19 HP from Con loss next round.
The dragon is likely upset that its breath attack does nothing. Statistically, its best bet is to cast True Strike and then attack once with the
Bite next round, but it shouldn't know that it has a 73.5091890625% chance to miss six times with its full attack, so it will probably try this.
Assuming one attack hits, which only happens on a 20, the dragon deals his 24 again.
Then Derrick Feints, using Improved Feint and Skill Mastery to Take 10. Endur's dragon doesn't have Sense Motive, and that's fine. Even if he did,
he couldn't win the opposed check. Then Derrick Sneak Attacks (misses only on a 1) for average 46 damage, plus 2 strength damage and 1 con damage. Now the poor dragon does even less damage.
You see by now, I hope, that the dragon is in big trouble. Its worth noting that it automatically loses within 5 rounds if you ignore 1s and 20s. The dragon is no idiot, so he probably notices too, and if he flees now, it is likely a draw unless Derrick has ranged attacks,
Dimension Doors, etc with his extra gear.
Something other than a rogue would win even more easily. This is as it should be.
CR exists for a reason, and it would skew the reward to risk ratio if a CR 13 monster could beat a level 20 character reliably.
Sorry if this was long, and thanks for reading. I hope a few people who agreed with me were vindicated by this example.