Dragon Tactics - How smart and original can you be?

[S'mon]

Bzzzt, wrong again. A 20th level human wizard should have an INT of at least 30 (16 base+5 level +6 item +3 inherent), and that is with a fairly low prime stat (16).

Hmm... I've GM'd my high-level campaign to 18th and I don't think any PCs have stats near 30 - in particular, where did that +3 Inherent bonus come from? Do PCs in your game have easy access to the 3 wishes _cast simultaneously_ this would require? I'd say 26 was more likely in a typical game. Of course I can see someone starting w INT 18, +6 headband +5 level = 29 being fairly common in high-stat game with min-maxed PCs.

 

[iwatt]

But 20th PCs are also insanely powerful, and no CR13 Dragon is a match for them unless the DM stacks the odds totally against the PC (and even naked in an antimagic field a 20th level barbarian would give the Dragon a fair fight).

.Ziggy

I guess are difefrences then are due to campaign styles. In the games I play in (and those I DM as well), there is no such thing Ye Old Magic Shoppe. You can teleport anywere you want but you won't just find a +5 tome of Intellect lying around (and by the way, all these uber smackdown builds NEVER have Item creation feats). And before you object, there is nothing in the RAW that states the PCs get to buy exactly what they want. Or even that evrithing is available. Of course you can create the uber-super sweet Adventureers kit that "everybody" knows you MUST have, but that takes time. Which in my experience is one of the greatest limiters in controlling power levels. When the Dragon comes knocking, you don't go and say: "wait a couple of weeks, let me get my boots of flying ready". You're an adventuree, and that means that soemtimes Adventure come to you as well.

But to be fair, many of you have pointed out how a 20th level character has good odds to beat a CR13 Dragon. But if there are odds you'll win, there are also odds you'll lose. And I still believe the fight isn't as one-sided as people believe. But that's probably because I use a different approach to magic inventory in my games than others. You, know different strokes...

 

[Rystil Arden]

If you read my 20th-level rogue post, I give him low (25 point-buy) stats, don't spend all his money, don't buy anything crazy or make an attempt to min-max him (I don't even use all his feats for crying out loud), and he still automatically beat the dragon unless the dragon gets a series of 20s. There are odds that a 1st-level fighter with 18 strength and a scythe will beat the tarrasque (if he hits for max damage and crits every round, he will get past DR and Regeneration by 1 hp), but those odds are incredibly long. The dragon's victory chances are better than that fighter's, but they are still lower than 1/1000. My rogue uses no tomes at all, and his only expensive item worth more than 54,000 of his 760,000 starting gold is his sword, many of whose abilities I didn't even use in any analysis (it would remain unchanged if you just bumped the sword down to +5 with nothing else, leaving it at 50000ish gp value). This is exactly as it should be. This monster is so weak, that were he one CR weaker, I wouldn't even get XP for killing him. This is the CR equivalent of putting up a bugbear against a 9th-level character, only pushed upwards in level by 11, so that both sides are much stronger, so there won't be a one-hit-KO.

Also, remember, the character is not going to wait until 20th-level to get a flying item, or else he'd probably be dead by then. If you have no item shops, his party wizard didn't have item creation, and you insisted on keeping these items generally out of his reach, he could commission one from an NPC wizard (unless nobody in your game has Craft Wondrous Item, although the sample NPC wizard in the DMG does, and so does the PC wizard in my campaign, despite being nearly maxed out for spell effectiveness otherwise). If I was playing in your campaign, I would completely understand if you had no magic item shops, as I tend to be leery of them too. However, if you also disallowed me to commission the item (and yes, I know it would take almost two months) just because this PC is not a wizard and so couldn't make it himself, I would be pretty upset. Of course, when I encountered a flying wizard who flew around out of arrow range and shot long range spells at poor Derrick until he eventually succumbed, then I would be more upset.

Now, the other thing: this is a rogue, and they aren't very good at soloing monsters. In fact, he wasn't built by me to do so, or to fight dragons, he's just an average rogue. Give me a wizard, and the dragon is dead faster and safer. The same goes for any other class, even the much-maligned pure fighter. I can also kill the CR 15 adult the vast majority of the time, but the CR 18 mature adult is going to be tricky for anyone except the spellcasters (unless I get to multiclass or use DMG prestige-classes).

There was an earlier comment that a 50/50 chance to save or die means a 50/50 chance for the wizard to lose; this is an either-or fallacy. First, the Young Adult dragon's +13 Will save is inadequate to save 50% of the time against a level 20 Enchanter's (who started at level 1 with 16 Int) DC 29 Dominate Monster (or the symmetrical Imprisonment from a level 20 Abjurer). However, the Mature Adult *does* save exactly 50% of the time. Let's say he makes the save: Against a wizard, I would breath attack and close in. Let's assume this wizard is an idiot, and he doesn't have on any long-lasting energy protection effects. He still takes only 77 damage, so he's fine. Then he casts again on the defensive. If he were smart, it would be a dimension door or teleport to build distance and buff, then return. Even if he's an idiot and retries the Will Save trick that failed before, he wins this fight now 75% of the time (two chances for 50%). Oh and if an Evoker pulls out Polar Rays, which aren't going to miss, the Mature Adule is dead in three hits from damage average and the Young Adult at about two, so if the wizard tosses in a quickened cone of cold each round (dragon saves on an 18, and if so it doesn't matter), the dragon is dead on round 2, and the wizard automatically wins unless he starts rolling all 1s on his d6s. And before you ask me, spellcasters in my campaign do memorise those spells (although the cones are left at level 5 and metamagic rodded to be quickened). If you allow metamagic rods and the archmage PrC's Mastery of Elements ability, the dragon is dead on round one from the Evoker's Ice-substitued Meteor Swarm and Quickened Polar Ray (average 259 damage). I'm not suggesting that you allow all of these things, but they are all in the DMG, so I would venture that a goodly number of DMs do. Even without them, the wizard still beats the Young Adult ever time, even without ongoing buffs up.

My guess is that you usually don't play with level 20 characters very often. That's fine, most people don't, and its a perfectly cool way to play. My other guess is that most people who are posting agreement with me have, however, and I know that I personally have done so.

 

[Kaji]

O e dragon lair had a series of inconnected tunnels, with several surfacing points on the cave floor. They were all filled with acid, which the dragon was immune to. So, he would dive in, pop up somewhere, breath, rinse, and repeat as desired. They eventually disintegrated most of the acid (a large chore) and chased the dragon down in the tunnels. Fun time.

 

[iwatt]

My guess is that you usually don't play with level 20 characters very often. That's fine, most people don't, and its a perfectly cool way to play. My other guess is that most people who are posting agreement with me have, however, and I know that I personally have done so.

Well, that was a well thought out and well explained counter-argument. Color me convinced.

And you're right about me not playing 20+. I know the rules and spells (intelectually), but I guess you really have to play with them to really grasp the smackdown they can lay down.

In my defense though, my opinions were colored by the fact that in DnD going solo is a good way to get killed. And I still stand on my position that many (and as you explained, your example wasn't neccesarily one of them) examples of high level smackdown are built directly at top power and then used to expalin stuff. I really don't like to play in a game were my wizard taking 10 ranks in forgery is qualified imediately as "inefficient" or even worse, as " not geared towards maximum party power". And I'm also stubborn , so when someone says you have to fly and have freedom of movement, I just keep going in the opposite direction (Dwarf Defender, loaded to bear on protections and AC).

 

[Rystil Arden]

Well, that was a well thought out and well explained counter-argument. Color me convinced.

And you're right about me not playing 20+. I know the rules and spells (intelectually), but I guess you really have to play with them to really grasp the smackdown they can lay down.

In my defense though, my opinions were colored by the fact that in DnD going solo is a good way to get killed. And I still stand on my position that many (and as you explained, your example wasn't neccesarily one of them) examples of high level smackdown are built directly at top power and then used to expalin stuff. I really don't like to play in a game were my wizard taking 10 ranks in forgery is qualified imediately as "inefficient" or even worse, as " not geared towards maximum party power". And I'm also stubborn , so when someone says you have to fly and have freedom of movement, I just keep going in the opposite direction (Dwarf Defender, loaded to bear on protections and AC).

Hehe, in my campaign, only one character has gone epic so far, and she picked Epic Skill Focus: Decipher Script (+10 to deciphering script) as her epic level feat because I made an encoded language that was really hard to decipher, so they aren't exactly min/maxed. I completely agree that soloing in D&D is a good way to get killed (just ask all those solo BBEGs), and also agree that top power characters are not good examples. If they were, I could just create a Hulking Hurler or something and claim that all the CRs are incorrect because I can kill everything, which is dumb. As far as 20+, I think that by that point, each party will be so different in power for different situations that unfortunately, the only way to figure out power balance is to play with it for a while (which is basically a Catch-22 unless you start at low levels and work your way up, like my PCs).

 

[Fieari]

If you REALLY want to have dragons that are fearsome and dangerous to everyone, you need to try out the Grim and Gritty rules, as seen here: http://www.swordsedge.net/Grim-n-GrittyRevised.doc Basically, everyone gets 15 hp... EVERYONE... but armor grants DR and other things grant AC (now "Defense"). Since Soak practically replaces HP, things can get a lot of it, and so to overcome it, attacks are an opposed roll, and you add the difference between your attack roll and their defense roll to your damage. Criticals work by rolling a certain value over the opponent's defense, and criticalling gives you the chance to do things like break limbs, put out eyes, or just bypass some armor... other than these things, it's still d20 like everyone knows and loves.

It completely messes up the CR system, making some normally scary monsters chumps, and making some normally chump monsters REALLY SCARY. Dragons are one kind of monster that gets really scary. I ran the above encounter over again, using the GnG system... and Derrick the uninspiring still wins on average, but no longer gets out unscathed and has at least a 5% chance of dying INSTANTLY in the first round. Of course, if criticals are rolled, the dragon might also be able to tear Derrick apart in Melee as well, but the odds are still against the dragon.

GRIM AND GRITTY CR"13" versus ECL20

Young Adult Red Dragon
Soak: 31 (+5 con +18 nat +8 size)
Defense: 17 (+19 bab +0 dex -2 size)

Derrick the Uninspiring
Soak: 15 (+5 con +9 armor +5 nat -4 size)
Defense: 42 (+23 ref +6 dex +1 size +7 shield +5 deflection)

It doesn't matter much who wins initiative. The dragon is far away and plays it slightly smarter, giving itself Mage Armor, which is a deflection bonus and thus adds four to defense. It then flies in, a stereotypical strafing run. Derrick still save on anything except a 1, in which case he takes 4d10+24, average 46 minus Derrick's soak, which is only 15. Charred Derrick dies instantly, but that's only a 5% chance. Note that if Derrick hadn't had Improved Evasion (say the dragon wasn't fighting a rogue) then on a save, he would have taken 23 (-15 soak = 8) leaving him alive, but moderatly wounded and suffering in the future, meaning that the rogue in fact has a better chance than many epic characters of winning.

Derrick rushes in, granting the dragon an AoO. At a +27 attack versus a +42 defense, the dragon needs to roll a 20 or Derrick needs to roll a 1 in order for the dragon to hit (a little less than a 10% chance of a hit, in other words). However, on such a hit, the dragon deals 19 (-15 soak = 4) damage, not enough to really injure Derrick, but enough to make Derrick nervous.

Now Derrick attacks. With a +30 versus a +21, derrick will win by 9 on average, threatening a critical because it's a rapier. But since the Dragon's Soak is 31, Derrick's rapier won't be able to deal any damage at all (and thus no critical effect like blindness) unless Derrick bypasses the dragon's natural armor (finding a loose scale or whatever), which has a -8 confirmation penalty, making Derrick role a +22 vs the Dragon's +21, only a slight edge, but a reasonable chance. If Derrick wins, the dragon will take an average of 12 damage, putting it into the severely wounded catagory, giving it a -2 to all future rolls. If the dragon wins, again, the dragon takes NO damage at all.

The dragon now casts True Strike and bites. True Strike grants a +20 to attack (unless you house rule this like I did in my GnG game) making this attack a +45 (47-2) verses Derrick's defense of +42, meaning that it will usually hit by about 3 or so. This will deal 2d8+13, for an average of 22 (-15 soak = 7). Assuming Derrick has taken no damage so far, that STILL places Derrick into the Moderately Wounded catagory, making him take a -1 to all future rolls.

So Derrick now Sneak Attacks using Improved Feint and Skill Mastery to take 10. Assuming moderately and seriously wounded, respectively, we now have a +29 versus +19, causing Derrick to win by 10 on average again, again threatening the critical. This time, if the critical confirms, the dragon is dead even if he'd taken no damage aleady, but if not, we have 1d6+5+10 normal damage (average 18) plus sneak attack, which is a flat plus 20 under GnG... for a total of 38 on average, -31, that's 7 more life gone and if the dragon was wounded before, it's dead now.

Assuming that the Dragon survives this, there's still a chance it can do a bit more damage to the rogue, but the rogue can deal damage faster, as long as the dragon stays up close. The dragon could always run away, trusting in soak to not be SA'd, and then giving the ol' 5% instant kill breath weapon another shot in 1d4 rounds, or just turn tail and run. But either way the dragon is STILL in trouble. The rogue can no longer get through this without fear, nor can he get through this without taking damage, but it's still survivable 1 on 1.

Now, if the Dragon was fighting on home turf, with traps set up like floors doused with oil and such things, the 20th level character would have much more cause to fear, but could still win if backed up by an adventuring party worth its salt.

 

[Rystil Arden]

That's an interesting system. The problem I see with it (and this isn't a problem in your dragon vs Derrick fight but with the system itself) is that the dragon's breath weapon will instantly kill itself on average, even on a successful save (46-31=15), if it weren't for its fire immunity, so every fight between dragons is likely to degenerate into who wins initiative. Also, wizard save for half blast spells automatically kill the dragon too, regardless of save roll, and not only the dragon but every PC without Evasion. You do call out the caveat that the grim and gritty system isn't balanced, and I tend to agree with you. I agree that the dragon just became much scarier for Derrick though, although he might change his build in a system where heavy armour and Con give him damage reduction and Small size takes it away (perhaps +5 mithral full plate and Con raises, plus being a dwarf instead of a halfling, since size Small characters will become extinct due to size penalty to this Soak DR thing, that would put his soak up to 27, making the dragon's melee less significant--still automatically dead from the breath attack, though; I might not have done this right, but that's what I get for trying to build a character under this system without reading the actual rules ^^).

As far as running the fight: the only thing I see is that the dragon needs to wait a round after True Strike before biting (unless this is different in GnG), so he won't get off that attack before dying.

 

[Endur]

I forgot about the Ring of Freedom of Movement (its 40k, so its easy to overlook).

But I still think the Dragon's chance of winning the engagement is far above 1/1000.

I assume no preparation and also no surprise

Derrick wins Initiative 80.5% of the time (1- (1/400 * sigma(x,x,1,12))), but the dragon is far away so it can fly in and go first

If the dragon is smart, he will run.

As soon as the Dragon realizes he is facing a 20th level Juggernaut of a human being, the Dragon withdraws and comes back later. When he has surprise. When the human being is sleeping in bed and isn't wearing all of his magical items.

But I said a 20th level character. I never said anything about magic items.

Dragons don't live to be ancient by fighting to the death.

 

[Rystil Arden]

I forgot about the Ring of Freedom of Movement (its 40k, so its easy to overlook).

But I still think the Dragon's chance of winning the engagement is far above 1/1000.



As soon as the Dragon realizes he is facing a 20th level Juggernaut of a human being, the Dragon withdraws and comes back later. When he has surprise. When the human being is sleeping in bed and isn't wearing all of his magical items.

But I said a 20th level character. I never said anything about magic items.

Dragons don't live to be ancient by fighting to the death.

Derrick is hardly a juggernaut, that was my whole point in making him, he uses the lowest point buy, doesn't spend all his feats or abilities, etc, but that aside: Could the dragon win if he attacked Derrick while Derrick was asleep? Absolutely (assuming he could pull this off). But originally you said:

"Here is an example CR 13 Dragon. This Dragon can probably take any 20th level character in a 1 on 1 fight. So, short of an epic character or a deity, this Dragon is not going to be afraid of any single PC."

I completely agree that dragons don't live to be ancient by fighting to the death, that's why I mentioned that it should run. The point of this thread is that dragons should have interesting tactics (like turning the tables on the PC by sneaking up when they are asleep as you suggested), as brute force only goes so far. As such, my post has proved its point. That you agreed that the dragon would run means that it is indeed afraid of Derrick (it would never admit that this is why it ran though)

Now to your assertion that you never said magic items: Magic items are absoutely 100% a part of any character, let alone a 20th-level character. The game is balanced around the base money table 5-1, and I didn't even use all of that money to equip Derrick. If you take away all of the items, monks and other classes who have Ki Strike abilities will be the only melee class capable of toe-to-toeing even wimpy high-DR monsters without some serious criticals (and some monsters are immune to those). Without access to an adamantine weapon, a rogue isn't going to be able to hurt an iron golem (it was an easier-to-find +3 requirement back in the longer-playtested 3.0) . Having appropriate items is thus not only a necessary, but an intrinsic part of any combat character. It would be like saying that I said a level 20 wizard couldn't beat a level 15 aristocrat, and then later mentioning that you never said the wizard got spells.


Now the fun part: The probability. All rolls will be assumed to do average damage because this is the expected value, so any deviance of damage will not affect the dragon's chance of winning, as they will tend to cancel out. Thus I will compute the probability that the dragon will hit enough times to take Derrick out before Derrick kills the dragon. I will first do this assuming the dragon uses all its attacks, then I will do it again with the dragon True Striking on the defensive and attacking the next round. Four sneak attacks will kill the dragon, so I'll start by calculating the chance that Derrick will have done that by the fifth round. This is (19/20)^4=81.45%. Now the chance that the dragon kills Derrick before this is as follows: the dragon needs to hit seven times with a combination of melee attacks and breath attacks to kill Derrick. The chance of that happening in those five rounds, wherein he gets 25 chances, is a summation of nCr(25,x)*(1/20)^x(19/20)^(25-x) for all x>7, roughly = to 1.69e-4 (roughly 3/20000). Next round: Now Derrick has a 97.7% chance to have won, whereas dragon has a (7/10000) chance to kill by then, which when multiplied by the chance it even goes this far (which is .1855 from Derrick above) becomes about (1/30000) which is lower than before. Derrick has a 99.7% chance to win after the next round, so the dragon has a .00213, roughly 1/500 chance to win if it makes it this long, but when I multiply in the chance to reach this round, which is 2.3%, I get 1/20000. The chance that Derrick wins by this next round is 99.98%, which is more than 999/1000 (its actually only a 2/10000 chance that he doesnt win by this round!), so we can stop if the dragon hasn't won at least 1/1000 by now, so I'll make that last calculation: the dragon will have won with a 1/200 chance if it comes to this round, which when multiplied by the .3% chance to make it to this round becomes 3/100000! Now by the Additivity Axiom of Probability, if I add up the dragon's chances in all these rounds, I will get an overestimate of the actual probability that the dragon wins, as the events are non-disjoint (see Introduction to Probability by Dimitri Bertsekas and John Tsitsiklis for a good overview). The sum of these numbers, rounded up to a clean number is 3/10000, so the actual value will be significantly less than my broad overestimate. As you can see, it is well under 1/1000.

As it turns out, I don't need to do the numbers on True Strike (even though True Strike does damage more quickly on average) because the True Strike is too slow to kill Derrick before he reaches that 99.98% win chance, no matter what. Gotta love 6.041 (its a probability class, but we number them here).