Effect of 4th Edition on DDO

[Jhaelen]

There are many costs associated, I don't think 3.6mil a year is all that profitable when there are costs associated with it you still have to factor in.

It depends on what you consider 'all that profitable'. 20,000 subscribers are sufficient to make a comfortable profit. It's a good business model, really.

After an inital big investment and pretty long development time, the running costs aren't that high. Keeping things going and churning out the occasional update doesn't require that many high-paid individuals.

A while ago I sat together with a friend who studied industrial economics (I'm a software developer, btw.) and we did some worst-case calulations based on our experiences. We concluded that after at most two years things start to look very good indeed. If you manage to keep 20,000 subscribers hooked for at least that long, you've made it.

Of course this doesn't proof anything and we could well be wrong, but I think the most difficult thing with this is the huge initial investment and the long period without any returns. Everything after that is a cakewalk by comparison.

 

[hong]

I guess it could be argued that if you have the number 1 franchise in p&p roleplaying, then a .06% market share in computer roleplaying could be improved on.

 

[Wulf Ratbane]

I guess it could be argued that if you have the number 1 franchise in p&p roleplaying, then a .06% market share in computer roleplaying could be improved on.

True dat.

 

[Silvergriffon]

I've got to chime in here as an avid fan of DDO who has been playing since beta.

Subscriptions: Turbine (and Codemasters who administer the european game servers) does not publicly release any subscription numbers. The numbers you are looking at are, as stated on the website being quoted, just a "well researched estimate". Since absolutely no subscription information is shared with the general public, one must ask what reliable research they could possibly have done. Basically, it is a "guestimate" based only on sales figures of the software provided by certain retailers. They took those figures and guessed at the percentage that are probably still active. I can tell you that 20,000 is a serious underestimation. I am not at liberty to discuss why I believe that, so believe it or not at your own discretion.

4e: The information I have is that Turbine is going to be examining the 4e rules for anything that can improve DDO. It is not likely, however, that they will adopt the rules as a whole. They will not be wiping the worlds and starting over.

Personally, I see the adoption of the simplified skill system and merging some of the powers into the DDO enhancement system as the most promising areas. Since they have not implemented any prestige classes, maybe paragon paths and epic destinies would be a good fit as well. That is also something they might be able to integrate into the enhancement system.