Mercurius
Legend
(First, I'm not sure if this belongs in the 4E forum--it is about D&D but goes beyond the boundary of just 4E; moderators, feel free to move if you so desire--I won't be offended 
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OK, so Essentials is not 4.5E--at least not in the same sense that 3.5E was to 3E--and it would seem that, given D&D Insider and this new line of products, Wizards of the Coast may be putting off a new edition for quite some time and may even forgo the old cycle of "new edition, glut, decline, new edition." So what do you see as the future of D&D? It should go without saying, but I'm talking mainly talking about the near-to-moderate future--say, the next five to ten years, although feel free to extrapolate beyond that (e.g. fully immersive Virtual Eberron in 30 years).
One prediction I would make is that the next "pseudo-edition" change will be a reprinting and mild-to-moderate revision of the core rule books. They will include any changes that come about through Essentials, errata, new formatting, art, and a general look to increase the appeal, sort of like the black and red books for 2E (which I thought were even less attractive than the hideous "neon blue" books, but that's beside the point). I would guess that we would see these in 2-3 years. They will not be a new edition of D&D, at least not newer than Essentials, in that they will not invalidate anything previously printed for 4E, but most people will buy them regardless. But of course they will inspire endless internet speculation and debate, and probably a new of the Edition Wars.
I also think we will see the trend continued of marketing D&D to a more mainstream audience through venues like Target. Let's face facts: the age of the FLGS is over. Certainly there will remain a few stores here and there, but by and large gamers buy their books online or in the big bookstores. Plus the decline of game stores has been exacerbated by their generally unpleasant atmosphere, especially to casual gamers (emphasis on "generally"; game store owners, I don't mean to offend and I am not necessarily talking about your store, but it shouldn't come as a surprise that the, ah, ambience of many game stores is quite off-putting to lots of folks, especially casual gamers).
I think we will see a 5E but its differences from 4E may be less marked by game mechanics than they are by reliance and use of technology. Not being a techy type, how that will look I have no idea but it will probably involve virtual game tables, easier ways to play online, maybe even something similar to World of Warcraft except guided by a DM. When it gets to this point, it will of course be something other than a table-top RPG. But, for better or worse (I say worse), this will likely be the future of RPGs and, once we Gen-Xers start dying off or leaving the hobby en masse--say, really starting in 20-30 years--tabletop RPGs will be no more than a fringe hobby. I wouldn't be surprised to see 5E still firmly based on the tabletop, but 6E being based on virtuality, thus making 5E the "Last Edition" of D&D as we know it. At that point WotC--or whoever owns D&D--will publish a commerative "Classic Edition" of D&D, which will be in book form. But most everything will be online and subscription based.
So here would be my timeline:
2012-13 - revised core rulebooks
2015ish - 5th edition
2020-2030 - rapid developments in virtual technology and aging of Gen-Xers leads to steep decline of tabletop RPGs.
2025ish - 6th edition - the first entirely non-paper D&D (perhaps to coincide with the 50th anniversary in 2024?).
2050 - the Singularity finally occurs and 95% of the population downloads into computers; a few stray luddites and old school gamers remain, clutching their dice bags into the grave.
.OK, so Essentials is not 4.5E--at least not in the same sense that 3.5E was to 3E--and it would seem that, given D&D Insider and this new line of products, Wizards of the Coast may be putting off a new edition for quite some time and may even forgo the old cycle of "new edition, glut, decline, new edition." So what do you see as the future of D&D? It should go without saying, but I'm talking mainly talking about the near-to-moderate future--say, the next five to ten years, although feel free to extrapolate beyond that (e.g. fully immersive Virtual Eberron in 30 years).
One prediction I would make is that the next "pseudo-edition" change will be a reprinting and mild-to-moderate revision of the core rule books. They will include any changes that come about through Essentials, errata, new formatting, art, and a general look to increase the appeal, sort of like the black and red books for 2E (which I thought were even less attractive than the hideous "neon blue" books, but that's beside the point). I would guess that we would see these in 2-3 years. They will not be a new edition of D&D, at least not newer than Essentials, in that they will not invalidate anything previously printed for 4E, but most people will buy them regardless. But of course they will inspire endless internet speculation and debate, and probably a new of the Edition Wars.
I also think we will see the trend continued of marketing D&D to a more mainstream audience through venues like Target. Let's face facts: the age of the FLGS is over. Certainly there will remain a few stores here and there, but by and large gamers buy their books online or in the big bookstores. Plus the decline of game stores has been exacerbated by their generally unpleasant atmosphere, especially to casual gamers (emphasis on "generally"; game store owners, I don't mean to offend and I am not necessarily talking about your store, but it shouldn't come as a surprise that the, ah, ambience of many game stores is quite off-putting to lots of folks, especially casual gamers).
I think we will see a 5E but its differences from 4E may be less marked by game mechanics than they are by reliance and use of technology. Not being a techy type, how that will look I have no idea but it will probably involve virtual game tables, easier ways to play online, maybe even something similar to World of Warcraft except guided by a DM. When it gets to this point, it will of course be something other than a table-top RPG. But, for better or worse (I say worse), this will likely be the future of RPGs and, once we Gen-Xers start dying off or leaving the hobby en masse--say, really starting in 20-30 years--tabletop RPGs will be no more than a fringe hobby. I wouldn't be surprised to see 5E still firmly based on the tabletop, but 6E being based on virtuality, thus making 5E the "Last Edition" of D&D as we know it. At that point WotC--or whoever owns D&D--will publish a commerative "Classic Edition" of D&D, which will be in book form. But most everything will be online and subscription based.
So here would be my timeline:
2012-13 - revised core rulebooks
2015ish - 5th edition
2020-2030 - rapid developments in virtual technology and aging of Gen-Xers leads to steep decline of tabletop RPGs.
2025ish - 6th edition - the first entirely non-paper D&D (perhaps to coincide with the 50th anniversary in 2024?).
2050 - the Singularity finally occurs and 95% of the population downloads into computers; a few stray luddites and old school gamers remain, clutching their dice bags into the grave.
