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General Tabletop Discussion
*Dungeons & Dragons
Fireball/Lightning Bolt vs Chromatic Orb?
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<blockquote data-quote="jgsugden" data-source="post: 9647472" data-attributes="member: 2629"><p>It is easier to do Chromatic Orb in Excel with a series of rolls and a few formulas. Then you can chart the results. I didn't do it myself for this analysis, but I've done similarly complex stuff before. </p><p></p><p>The most important part of that charting is the Chromatic Orb chart and that fat 20.25% chance of a 0 for damage. Essentially 1 in 5. As you level up, that chance will drop some as your attack chances grow faster than enemy ACs and you get more access to advantage, etc... However, it will always be there.</p><p></p><p>The reliability element I discuss comes into play when you look at the chances of getting nothing out of your spell. When you get nothing out of your action on turn 1 it has a cascading effect. The enemies that do not fall that would have fallen had you cast a fireball are getting an extra attack off - and then when they fall the attack that took them down could have been on another target that also gets to stay on their feet one extra attack... You really want to make sure you're getting utility out of round 1. </p><p></p><p>The real disasters happen when you get that little unlucky streak at the start of combat and your enemies get more attacks in than expected. In a D&D campaign, under the guidelines in the 2014 DMG, you should likely have about 250 to 280 encounters between levels 1 and 20. That means that having a chance in excess of about 0.3% of something really bad happening means that really bad thing is more likely than not going to happen along the way. If the chance of a total whiff on a chromatic orb is ~20%, then the odds of it happening 3 times in a row is only 0.8% ... but that is enough for it to happen about three times over 20 levels. When you're the one responsible for crowd control and keeping a series of enemies from getting their attack ... and you end up dealing no damage over three rounds ... well, that can put a heck of a lot of extra damage on the party. It can make a huge difference. That is a real chance of a TPK - and that scenario could happen three times over 20 levels with that probability. </p><p></p><p>Now, I'd say the odds are actually a bit lower ... but likely still over 0.3%. It may take a while ... but that really bad luck streak will likely happen.</p><p></p><p>Reliability is really important for maintaining long term success. Having a reasonable risk of a complete whiff is a big problem. That is why I will take the lower average damage, but higher minimum damage, options quite often.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="jgsugden, post: 9647472, member: 2629"] It is easier to do Chromatic Orb in Excel with a series of rolls and a few formulas. Then you can chart the results. I didn't do it myself for this analysis, but I've done similarly complex stuff before. The most important part of that charting is the Chromatic Orb chart and that fat 20.25% chance of a 0 for damage. Essentially 1 in 5. As you level up, that chance will drop some as your attack chances grow faster than enemy ACs and you get more access to advantage, etc... However, it will always be there. The reliability element I discuss comes into play when you look at the chances of getting nothing out of your spell. When you get nothing out of your action on turn 1 it has a cascading effect. The enemies that do not fall that would have fallen had you cast a fireball are getting an extra attack off - and then when they fall the attack that took them down could have been on another target that also gets to stay on their feet one extra attack... You really want to make sure you're getting utility out of round 1. The real disasters happen when you get that little unlucky streak at the start of combat and your enemies get more attacks in than expected. In a D&D campaign, under the guidelines in the 2014 DMG, you should likely have about 250 to 280 encounters between levels 1 and 20. That means that having a chance in excess of about 0.3% of something really bad happening means that really bad thing is more likely than not going to happen along the way. If the chance of a total whiff on a chromatic orb is ~20%, then the odds of it happening 3 times in a row is only 0.8% ... but that is enough for it to happen about three times over 20 levels. When you're the one responsible for crowd control and keeping a series of enemies from getting their attack ... and you end up dealing no damage over three rounds ... well, that can put a heck of a lot of extra damage on the party. It can make a huge difference. That is a real chance of a TPK - and that scenario could happen three times over 20 levels with that probability. Now, I'd say the odds are actually a bit lower ... but likely still over 0.3%. It may take a while ... but that really bad luck streak will likely happen. Reliability is really important for maintaining long term success. Having a reasonable risk of a complete whiff is a big problem. That is why I will take the lower average damage, but higher minimum damage, options quite often. [/QUOTE]
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