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Message: <blockquote data-quote="Kinematics" data-source="post: 9647583" data-attributes="member: 6932123">I should note that I didn't put much effort into that part of the setup. That's the result of a 55% base accuracy (need to roll a 10 or higher to hit), which is somewhat low, and the code doesn't have any considerations for things like Seeking Spell. It does have advantage, though.Since I couldn't even get it to run a level 2 analysis, I didn't see much point in fine-tuning it.However, while reliability is definitely important, I would posit you're ignoring lots of other ways for things to be unreliable. The melee fighters are all swinging swords that can miss just as easily as Chromatic Orb.  If someone casts Hypnotic Pattern or Hold Person or whatever, if the creatures save then you just kinda wasted your turn. Etc. There is no 100% reliable path.And while I can understand someone having a preference for a more reliable option than a less reliable one, asserting that the less reliable one is simply the wrong choice solely because of that is not valid. The question is only, is this a viable alternative for someone wanting a different style of play? And I would say that there are enough options for it for the answer to that question to be "Yes".That's different from just saying it's a pointless alternative. For example, the Tidal Wave spell in Xanathar's. It's 3rd level (like Fireball), and a Dex save (like Fireball), but does 4d8 damage (2/3 as much as Fireball) over a 300 sq ft area (1/4 as much as Fireball, and 1/3 the number of expected targets according to the new DMG), and can knock targets prone if they fail the save. It is actually in line with guidance for creating a 3rd level spell (a tiny bit less damage than the guideline's 6d6, but with the added rider of knocking prone), and if Fireball was scaled properly for 3rd level, it would be an interesting alternative. But against the existing Fireball spell, it's just, what's even the point?That's the kind of spell that if someone said, "That's stupid. Don't take it.", I would find it entirely understandable. Although that's because the overtuning of the "iconic" spells makes everything else worse.I've tended to use Anydice for dice roll analysis, and Excel for math analysis. I'll see if there's a way to do the dice roll analysis in Excel. The main problem is taming the combinatorial explosion of possible results.</blockquote>

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