Fixing the DMG Demographics

Re: Re: Restating the assumptions

S'mon said:

I'd somewhat take issue with the idea that the modal level for NPCs should be assumed to be higher than 1, this is such a long way away from the DMG.
Yeah, I know, but if we assume the "typical professional adult" (of whatever class) to have a +10 skill bonus, that's what we're looking at. Asumming, of course, that the typical professional adult is the mode/median.

If you look at the CR charts though, levels 1-3 shoot up *real* quick, and then enter a more normal pace.


I do wonder though, does anyone anywhere use the DMG demographics exactly as written? :)
Sure. GMs who just blindly (or for whatever other reason) accept them - like newbie GMs, and the authors of MMS.

Also, the majority of GMs who ignore selective parts, tend to do it based on their knowledge, trusting that the parts are relatively isolated. As has become clear, that's a false assumption.
 

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Re: Re: Restating the assumptions

Xeriar said:

Italy got to 3:2 during the end of the Renaissance - it's more than a 'fertility of the land' thing, it also has to do with political management of food (ie, don't drive away those who would try to sell food...)
Wow. That's a pretty productive society. Any clues as to why the 1865 US was a backward slide? Or guestimates on how much more it improved sans magic?



1% is roughly 36 point buy at the bottom end (in a random population generated via 3d6), 4d6/25 point buy is more apt to the top 10% or so.
And this of course, brings up the question of whether or not PCs and NPCs use the same method of stat generation, or in other words - does the total population follow a 3d6 or a 4d6(drop low) distribution? How do the two map? And where do the various point buys fall on the mapping?



Diminishing returns are unnecessary - at least if you work things right.
Well, the CR system itself handles this to some degree, but more importantly, as the CR goes up, so does the monster's rarity.

It's harder to find one CR 12 monster than 64 CR 1 monsters, but my LV 12 Warrior doesn't earn any XP for the latter.
 

Re: Re: Re: Restating the assumptions

GuardianLurker said:

Yeah, I know, but if we assume the "typical professional adult" (of whatever class) to have a +10 skill bonus, that's what we're looking at. Asumming, of course, that the typical professional adult is the mode/median.
"Typical professional" sounds like a contradiction in terms though, for a medieval environment. Logically the modal NPC is a new-born male baby! I'm not sure why it's thought necessary that the average peasant farmer - the 'typical' adult in most campaigns - should have a +10 skill bonus. +6 (4 ranks & focus) seems plenty to me. I'd think +10, as representing 'typical skilled professional', would be a distinct minority in even a 21st century western-European civilisation. Most of the population aren't what I'd call 'professionals'.
 

Re: Re: Re: Restating the assumptions

GuardianLurker said:
Wow. That's a pretty productive society. Any clues as to why the 1865 US was a backward slide? Or guestimates on how much more it improved sans magic?

We were still actively settling, also, armies on the move take up a disproportionate amount of food. We were trying to be farmers, in other words - doesn't mean they were all commoners (certainly not at that point...)

Italy's cities did a couple of ingenius, and at first glance counterintuitive things that got their urbanization rate to 40%. It had more to do with policy than actual food production of the people.

For example, London and Paris routinely starved during their nation's most plentiful harvests - Venice, on the other hand, actually paid food merchants to sell within the city, so that it would still be worth it for merchants to sell there.

This also helped get around the issue of peasants hiding or destroying crops when Mean People came for various reasons...

And this of course, brings up the question of whether or not PCs and NPCs use the same method of stat generation, or in other words - does the total population follow a 3d6 or a 4d6(drop low) distribution? How do the two map? And where do the various point buys fall on the mapping?

I haven't really mapped 4d6 - it would make for a lot of insanely potent people. I just have everyone follow 3d6 with the option to weight the dice so the average is 10, 10.5, or 11.

.01% - ~48 point buy
.1% - ~40 point buy
1% - ~36 point buy
10% - ~26 point buy

The numbers are rather varied, in particular because I sorted it on total points rather than the DMG point buy.
So going by that (out of a population of say, a million) gets more reliable, naturally...

1 in a million: 95 points
1 in 100,000: 92 points
1 in 10,000: 89 points
1 in 1,000: 85 points
1 in 100: 80 points
1 in 10: 72 points

Since this is how I sorted it this is more consistant.

Well, the CR system itself handles this to some degree, but more importantly, as the CR goes up, so does the monster's rarity.

The advancement process right now says they face a given CR worth of challenges over a period of their life - not that, every five years, they face one big challenge - it's just all rolled up into a single encounter for calculation purposes.

Edit: 1 in a million should be 95 points, sorry.
 
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Since I was one of the people bringing up +10 bonus as a baseline, I suppose I should be one to back off of it. . .

One factor to consider is the dynamic that cooperation brings. If several people working together can grant a +2 circumstance bonus to your most skilled person, then you could make an argument that your leading types in rural areas could make do with +8, with several +4 to +6 helpers. The community would be able to deal with most normal skill-based challenges within their everyday expertise.

Four ranks plus skill focus plus raw talent (+2) and you could have a first level individual playing a key role in a smaller community. Given our assumptions that +2 bonuses in just the right place are not something you could always count on in a village of 200, it seems more likely that your leading figures will be second or third level at the least.

I think you need a way to get a reliable +10 bonus in the skills that are central to social function (profession: farmer, craft: farm tools, animal handling) in order to create a dynamic where failure is not a common occurence under regular conditions, but can occur if there is any amount of difficulty.

By fifth level, you have 8 ranks, skill focus, and a possible +1 stat bonus= +11 to a maxed-out skill (+12 if using a +3 skill focus). With cooperation, your normal village would still be able to succeed at any "Take ten" situation DC 20 with a -2 circumstance bonus.

For these reasons, I think we would want third and fourth level to be the thick part of the distribution, tailing off drastically above that point except in certain special situations (such as a frontier). Even in those situations, I could see more multiclassing going on (getting to a +10 bonus in farming, then gaining a level or two of warrior to deal with the nasties).
 

Another point to consider- not all professionals/farmers/etc will have maxed out their skills.

What skills does a all-round good farmer need?

Profession[farmer]
Wilderness Lore
Handle Animal
Craft[Carpentry]

now, that's before you get into the miscellaneous skills.
Swim, Climb, Jump, & Balance- all might have a little of this.
Use Rope should be fairly common.
Hide, Move Silently, Listen, & Spot for one who doubles as a hunter.
Or just a hobby...

So, I agree that the average skilled adult is 3rd or 4th level, but rarely will such a person have the level of obsession on a single skill to both max out and take Skill Emphasis. That should be as common among npc's as them having ability scores of 5 and 15.
 

Many Re: Restating the assumptions

Xeriar said:

The advancement process right now says they face a given CR worth of challenges over a period of their life - not that, every five years, they face one big challenge - it's just all rolled up into a single encounter for calculation purposes.

Erm - a LV 12 Warrior has to encounter 13 or 14 EL 12 Encounters to advance to the next level. So that's 13-14 CR 12 critters or 854 CR 1 critters. Which are still easier to find than 14 CR 12 critters, or even 28 CR 10 critters, or 56 CR 8, or...

The point is that after LV 9, CRs start dropping off the XP chart as fast as they're added. Which means that, suicidal adventurers aside, later levels will take longer.

Or did I misunderstand what you were saying?
 

Re: Re: Re: Re: Restating the assumptions

S'mon said:
I'd think +10, as representing 'typical skilled professional', would be a distinct minority in even a 21st century western-European civilisation. Most of the population aren't what I'd call 'professionals'.

There I'd disagree with you - someone who's making a reliable living at something has to be able to "take 10" on your average every-day tasks.

Now, your typical modern-day paper-pusher might be able to get by with *really* low skill levels, since their typical tasks are probably hovering around DC 10-15 (or even lower).

However, your pseudo-medieval farmer (or craftsman) is facing rougher challenges than "where'd I put that form?" and needs higher skill levels.

I guess the real question is what is the DC of the "typical task", and what's the DC of a task worthy to be counted as a EL 1 encounter?
 

Another Voice on this and Putting it together (Part 1)

Ok I thought I would add another voice to this facinating topic

After digesting both of these threads here is what I came up with

First my world assumptions

I don't use the adept class. I just don't see the need for it and anyway taking it out won't hurt demographics much.

Ratio of farmers to folks 3-1. This means that 25% of the people are non food producing. This ratio includes magic spells such as Plant Growth and the non canonical (but likely) crop bless

A person achieves first level at 15

A non adventuring person gains 1000 xp per year (per Sean K. Reynolds) this amount is modifed by up to plus 50% in dangerous times and -25% for sheltered folks.

ABout 10% of the population has stats suitable for adventuring classes and is likely a member of one of those those classes. his is 40% of the non farmer types BTW

Non adventurers are created either with 15-20 point buy (higher point buy for the occasional higher level types or average dice i.e. 3 six sided dice, numbered 2, 3, 3, 4, 4, 5. People with very feeble stats will probably die young. The occasional INT 6 type might survive but the Con3 person will likely die of a childhood ilness or something

Adventurers are created with either 4d6/keep best 3 or point buy 25+.
Thye tend to have rather high stats.

Adventurers gain XP at a higher rate than NPC classes. I would suggest tweaking this amount to suit you campaign. As an example IMC the average mage is 5th-7th and about 26 Years old-- This will very from game to game and JMO should be adjusted for campaign necessity. I would as a default assume 2000xp per year

USing the demograhics modern iceland (from here ) as a basis our population breakdown look like this
0-14 years: 23%.
15-64 years: 65% This is the age when someone is active
65 years and over: 12%

I would adjust them to account for social differences to
0-14 years: 30% slightly bigger familes and less infant mortality. Note that some of the kids (age 12-14) may have apprentice levels in one or more classes
12-64 years: 65% This is the age when someone is active and isa at
65 years and over: 5% The toughness of medievaloid life cuts life expectancy

OK now lets do a hypothetical kingdom-- The kingdom of Examplia (population 10,000,000)

This means that in Examplia there are 6,500,000 adults age 15-65.

Of those 4,875,000 are farmers or in similar trades and live in the countryside.

These guys are probably Commoners level 1-8 averaging 3-5. A scant 10% are unusualy high level or multi classed or whatever
THe total number of PC classed folks is around 200,000 (3% of the total population)as I figure that the countyside has a decent number of Clerics, most of the Druids, Barbarians and Rangers. The other classes are more city oriented IME


In the cities lives 1625000 folks among those 7/10 of the adveturing population. Thats means 585,000 folks with adventurer classes live in the various cities. These guys cover the gamut of levels from 1-20 and up

You can plug in SJohn Ross's formula (from here) to determine the population of the largest city in the kingdom.

This is equal to (P times M), where P is equal to the square root of the country's population, and M is equal to a roll of 2d4+10 (the average roll is 15). Be warned though, to make the formula work with the new demographic you need to triple the M factor. I would just use a base of 45

Thus in examplia the largest city is around 160,000 or twice the size of London in 1300--

If you game favors bigger cities or a different composition double or triple the city size. This will approximate 17th century London in scope.

Whew

OK Once you have the demograhics together you can set down and do the NPC's I highly recomend And Everyone Else from Ambient

http://www.dreadgazebo.com/dnd/everyone.html

Most of them you won't need to worry about, after 4,000,000 of your folks live in the country and are commoners level 1-8 averaging level 3-5.


Well the rest comes later


:)
 
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Re: Many Re: Restating the assumptions

GuardianLurker said:


Erm - a LV 12 Warrior has to encounter 13 or 14 EL 12 Encounters to advance to the next level. So that's 13-14 CR 12 critters or 854 CR 1 critters. Which are still easier to find than 14 CR 12 critters, or even 28 CR 10 critters, or 56 CR 8, or...

The point is that after LV 9, CRs start dropping off the XP chart as fast as they're added. Which means that, suicidal adventurers aside, later levels will take longer.

Or did I misunderstand what you were saying?


Yes :-p

1: Fighting is not the only way to gain experience.

At later levels, the twelfth-level warrior (or sixth-level commoner, or whatever) has begun taking on different challenges. They are teaching the next generation, managing affairs, going to funerals, and so on...

2: This experience program applies to all cultures. Which mean the orcs get a couple level 12 (or whatever) warriors too...

3: Even within the rules, at higher levels, you can do more safely.
 

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