D&D 5E Given WotC plans with the RPG will 5e always be the #1 seller?

[Maggan]

Depends on the business.

Great, at least we now agree that there isn't one formula that fits all businesses. It is possible for one business to run a subsidiary differently from another business. And all evidence points to WotC being left very alone from Hasbro interference. I haven't seen any sources that indicate differently.

The thing that's different with WotC is that for Hasbro, their business is Magic, the card game. D&D is a footnote in Hasbro's books.

Cheers!

/Maggan

(who hasn't got a degree in business, so feel free to ignore my statements at will if you feel they contradict reality)

 

[Maggan]

A few years back I was on a bus at CES in Las Vegas and I started chatting with the gentleman next to me. Turns our he was a C level executive at Hasbro, so naturally I asked about D&D. He said that WOTC's line is so different than the rest of Hasbro that they're pretty much left to their own devices.

Next time, ask him if he's got a degree! That'll put many issues to rest, I feel.

/Maggan

 

[Tony Vargas]

Yes, it's all under WOTC now,

That is a huge change in D&D's favor, then. It's one thing (and quite enough, by itself, to lower the bar for 'success' to something D&D would have no trouble clearing) to have the 'core brand' pressure off, it's quite another to be able to rest on the CCGs' laurels, as well.

If 5e has it that easy, it'd have to try pretty hard to 'fail' in any sense at all.

Doesn't matter if the pie-in-the-sky 'brand as a whole' stuff pans out or not.

 

[Maggan]

If 5e has it that easy, it'd have to try pretty hard to 'fail' in any sense at all.

I can't imagine that the D&D team has a free ticket to do what they want, no questions asked. In all these discussions, WotC management seems to be totally forgotten. They can probably be mean bastards too.

So I don't know if D&D5 is having it easy. Even if Hasbro is hands off, WotC still has its management, much like most business. The D&D team has to answer to them and the goals that WotC sets for D&D, even if they don't have to go up to Hasbro.



Cheers!

/Maggan

 

[Shemeska]

What's interesting is that with the roll out of 5e they're able to take their time with having minimal D&D income, having virtually ceased 4e production for a while, and spend their time with the extended playtest marketing. That speaks to Hasbro not having a hand in the mix, and a certain amount of trust with their business plan for 5e. Or its too small to garner their attention. Either way I don't think Hasbro is micromanaging 5e.

At the same time, we're not seeing evidence in 5e of the same blank check spending that 4e got. I'd be shocked if it's within an order of magnitude of even just the 4e DDI expenditures.

To me at least it seems that they're given a free hand to do with 5e as they see fit, but they're having to do so within a reasonable and arguably limited budget (the size of the in-house team being rather small compared to 3e or 4e numbers), no sign (as of the moment) of Dragon or Dungeon magazine coming back, smaller GenCon footprint, less bells and whistles than 4e's roll out, etc.

 

[Neonchameleon]

What's interesting is that with the roll out of 5e they're able to take their time with having minimal D&D income,

"Minimal" = almost $6 million/year from DDI plus whatever books they sold. Or over half Paizo's budget for minimal overheads, and possibly as big as the rest of the RPG industry.

 

[BryonD]

"Minimal" = almost $6 million/year from DDI plus whatever books they sold. Or over half Paizo's budget for minimal overheads, and possibly as big as the rest of the RPG industry.

Unless, of course, you are wrong.

 

[Neonchameleon]

Unless, of course, you are wrong.

Oh, it's possible I'm wrong. But DDI tells us the number of subscribers it has, and from that we can work out a minimum value for the income it's making. And it's been checked that the number of DDI subscribers drops every time someone leaves. So either there are literally tens of thousands of fake DDI accounts for testing purposes or DDI is still making almost $6 million/year.

 

[BryonD]

Oh, it's possible I'm wrong. But DDI tells us the number of subscribers it has, and from that we can work out a minimum value for the income it's making. And it's been checked that the number of DDI subscribers drops every time someone leaves. So either there are literally tens of thousands of fake DDI accounts for testing purposes or DDI is still making almost $6 million/year.

I'm aware of all this. That doesn't mean you have enough data to actually calculate anything near the true total.

Again, I don't know.

One possibility is that you are right.
WotC is making all this money and they have made calculating it a trivially easy process based on nothing but publicly available numbers.
And, despite income as big as the rest of industry, WotC decided to gamble the whole thing on a new edition way, way sooner than anyone expected.
And as the popularity of 4E wained, DDI remained remarkable resilient.
And as 5E was announced, DDI remained remarkable resilient.
And as 5E becomes the new shiny that is right upon us, DDI remains remarkable resilient.
And, as DDI remains remarkable resilient and even with 4E effectively gone it still brings in as muc revenue as the rest of the industry, BUT, WotC decides to go a non-DDI route for their new game.

For all I know, all of that is true.

Or, it is more complex and WotC has decided to obfuscate their actual revenue from trivial public review and make future business choices based on past lessons learned.


I don't know.

 

[Neonchameleon]

I'm aware of all this. That doesn't mean you have enough data to actually calculate anything near the true total.

Again, I don't know.

One possibility is that you are right.
WotC is making all this money and they have made calculating it a trivially easy process based on nothing but publicly available numbers.
And, despite income as big as the rest of industry,

The rest of the industry excluding Paizo. I don't know what Paizo earned in 2013 - but in 2012 they earned $11.2 million. Which is a pretty big target to aim at.