I think what you are trying to say is that the GSL is preventing 3pp from moving to 4e DESPITE the larger market size. Because it would be crazy to think that they don't want to try and tap that larger market. Heck, try to tap both if you can.
Right. You get my point despite my bumbling. The GSL is holding 3rd parties back, despite the obvious larger 4e market.
Cant tap both, not really, the GSL took care of that.
As for not wanting to convert Tomb of Horrors or the like, I can understand the apprehension. Then again Tomb of Horrors is such a name brand that you could probably negotiate a seperate contract with WOTC so that you don't loose the option to go back at some point at time. But if you don't, then what do you do with it? I guess you could continue to sell it as 3.5, but how many more copies are you going to sell? I don't think the 3.5 market is growing afterall. The future buyers already have entire walls of stuff, including probably Tomb of Horrors and the like. I guess of course that they can try to add onto it with Return to the Tomb II or something like that but the point is that eventually the market becomes saturated and people just don't need more stuff.
One could argue that reason also applies to moving to 4e. Why buy it if its going to make your entire shelf of stuff obsolete? At least making stuff for 3.x allows the option to use the plethera of stuff you have.
Further, take ToH for example. It was black and white. Privateer presss, back when it released warmachine, was also black and white. Recently, teh rereleased Prime: remix, which was full color like later supliments, polished up to condense some rules and cleaned up errata. People bought it. I know I did. Did I need to? No not really,but I'd easily buy a cleaned up full color ToH, and I know I'm not alone.
Is there a market for 3.x? Unknown. But there is a market, and it is growing as dissatisfaction grows. The market doesnt have to be a large share, remember, for third parties.
It was the players handbook that was on the best sellers list.
So what. Its barely been over a month since its release, come talk to me in a year and we'll see if the sales are still growing or shrinking.
This is true, but I wouldn't totally discount it yet. I think they now have a better understanding of what the potential is for this side of the buisness and want to take advantage of it. I think they will put much more effort into it this time around then they have in the past.
Unsupported asserssion that they understand better now.
They knew there would be a market, hence canceling dungeon and dragon magazines and moving online. The problem is their past performaces via online and such has not been well done.
Time will tell.