GSL news.

[Lizard]

The key difference between the New Coke and D&D 4th Edition situations is simple: There weren't years of complaints built up about problems with Classic Coke like there are with 3rd Edition.

Perhaps as another analogy point, in the blind tests where people preferred new coke to old coke, they weren't told "This is a possible replacement for Coke". Many marketing analysts pin the failure of acceptance on that.

I think I'd like 4e if it were published by, say, Green Ronin as an alternative D20 system. It looks to be, solely on its own merits, a fun and playable game system. It just isn't *D&D* to me.

I mean, I enjoy Mutants&Masterminds, which is stripped-down from core D20 as D&D is. (Well, I had fun playing it in two long campaigns, but I felt very constrained and limited DMing it. OTOH, I only DMed it a short time and I was basically cajoled into it by my players -- I wanted to run Champions or Deeds Not Words.)

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

I think I'd like 4e if it were published by, say, Green Ronin as an alternative D20 system. It looks to be, solely on its own merits, a fun and playable game system. It just isn't *D&D* to me.

I'm kind of in that camp- I see a lot of things in the press releases that sound good to me- VERY good- but some of the changes just seem like they were made for the sake of change, and don't jibe with my conception of what D&D is.

However, even if I don't like the game as a replacement for D&D, that is not an indictment of the inherent quality of the game!

But as I've said before, I'm taking a wait & see attitude- no final decisions for me until my pre-ordered Core3 are in my hands.

 

[JohnRTroy]

I think I'd like 4e if it were published by, say, Green Ronin as an alternative D20 system. It looks to be, solely on its own merits, a fun and playable game system. It just isn't *D&D* to me.

Yeah, I'm getting a funny vibe as well from this. This is really the most radical change ever made to D&D. I'll try it but I too think it's changed way to much for me to enjoy, and we're just getting previews.

Attempting to reduce the 3.x alternatives will not be as successful. Every time you change the system there's always some people who won't follow--it happened with all previous editions of D&D. Dragonsfoot shows there is a viable market for this. If the sole reason for the proposed GSL clause is to get licensees to move forward, I don't believe that's the right way to do it.

Although, if most go with the new GSL and abandon 3.x for 4, I think the companies that choose to remain like Paizo and (I assume) Green Ronin will be even stronger, provided there are fewer of them. I think the worst thing for a 3.x market to remain alive will be a dozen or more different publishers each competing with each other, a strong publisher needs to become the "de facto heir" to 3rd Edition for it to be a viable movement.

 

[pawsplay]

Perhaps as another analogy point, in the blind tests where people preferred new coke to old coke, they weren't told "This is a possible replacement for Coke". Many marketing analysts pin the failure of acceptance on that.

Between that and the fact that they generally only got a swing, not an entire can, and they didn't first screen for people who already HAD a strong taste preference, this is gone down in history as one of the most disasterous marketing studies ever done. Proof positive that even with good numbers, you want to be very, VERY leery of messing with a good thing.

 

[pawsplay]

Although, if most go with the new GSL and abandon 3.x for 4, I think the companies that choose to remain like Paizo and (I assume) Green Ronin will be even stronger, provided there are fewer of them. I think the worst thing for a 3.x market to remain alive will be a dozen or more different publishers each competing with each other, a strong publisher needs to become the "de facto heir" to 3rd Edition for it to be a viable movement.

Actually, I'm betting on 3-4 major alternatives to be standing in the end. There is a lot of diversity in the non-adopters, everything from "not enough anime" to "too much anime," from "I love reserve feats" to "back in my day, a sorcerer was a 7th level magic-user."

Wild guesstimation from me:
Pathfinder, at least for a couple of years. As the profits eventually slow, the Pathfinder as a commercial endeavor line slows down and the PAthfinder community will continue tinkering with the rules and remain somewhat distinct from, but linked with the other 3.5 based communities.
Castles & Crusades looks like it has a lot of staying power. I predict a substantially revised version in a few years that sill maintains a high degree of backward compatibility.
One or more publishers are going to market to 3.5 grognards, probably intensifying their efforts on one or two fan websites or portals that serve such a community.

I consider True20 a nearly separate development. It's not a D&D replacement, it's for people who want to run non-D&D games but like the d20 mechanics. Likewise, Conan, the modern games, M&M and the rest are pretty distinct. They are not in competition with D&D. They enjoy some symbiosis with it but are also games in their own right.

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

I think that that's a pretty good assessment.

What I really wonder about, though, are the really good FRPGs that are closer to the source like AU/AE or Midnight, or those that are in that middle ground between dependence on 3.X and standing alone, like Iron Heroes.

 

[Vigilance]

Although, if most go with the new GSL and abandon 3.x for 4, I think the companies that choose to remain like Paizo and (I assume) Green Ronin will be even stronger, provided there are fewer of them. I think the worst thing for a 3.x market to remain alive will be a dozen or more different publishers each competing with each other, a strong publisher needs to become the "de facto heir" to 3rd Edition for it to be a viable movement.

I believe nearly the opposite is true.

The more publishers stay with 3e, the longer it will remain popular.

More support equals a wider audience.

This is the reason for the OGL in the first place. Wizards knew that more support, in terms of adventures, but also more "out there" settings was good for keeping players and GMs in the loop.

What they felt, after looking at the TSR experience, was that one company couldn't afford to make a wide enough range of products (and support them).

So while a setting like Dark Sun or Spelljammer might keep more players in the network, one company couldn't make it all.

So you farm that stuff out, and suddenly the network is stronger than ever.

The whole lesson of the OGL is that one company doesn't need to "win". Companies working together synergistically is where it's at.

In short, I think a wide range of companies, with a wide range of products, will help keep the OGL market strong.

Chuck

 

[olshanski]

My Prediction

I am predicting that 4E is going to be closed.
No GSL.
Certainly no OGL or SRD.

Why exactly does WoTC need 3rd party developers to be churning out adventure modules and settings? These are all theoretically money-making things for WoTC to be doing. It seems clear that a majority of people (certainly according to EnWorld and RPG.Net polls) are going gung-ho for 4th edition. People love the changes.

If all of those people adopt 4E, and you have a pool of in-house writers and developers, why not just keep putting out your own supplements for 4E?

I don't know what the market was like when 3E replaced 2E, but my guess is that there were not as many 2E players, and that many old players were playing new systems. Making 3E open encouraged everyone to pay attention and got everyone on the same page. Now that everyone is there, for the moment at least they have a captive audience.

The bottom line is that it appears that 4E could be viable as a closed system. If it turns out not to be viable, there is time to open it up later. If it starts out open, you cannot really shut the door unless the agreement has a revocation provision... which is almost effectively a closed system, because any 3rd party developer will be wary of spending resources when they license could be revoked.

Now why isn't anyone from WoTC coming out and saying this? What good does it do to confirm or deny it?
4E is coming out very soon. Once its out, people will be spending money on 4E.
If WoTC confirms that 4E is closed, the 3rd parties and presumably some players will get back to work on developing and playing OGL stuff. There seems to be a narrow window yet where 4E could hemmorage a small number of customers. The smaller the window, the fewer customers to be lost.

 

[essenbee]

I am predicting that 4E is going to be closed.
No GSL.
Certainly no OGL or SRD.

Well, the GSL and SRD have been announced, so looks like you're prediction is wrong...

 

[Charwoman Gene]

Sip Tests vs. Full-Glass Tests

New Coke didn't fail because of brand loyalty alone.

New Coke failed because for some people the additional sweetness that works in in its favor for almost everyone in sip tests gets unpleasant for some people in a full glass or can/bottle. Some people genuinely prefer the battery-acidness of Coca-Cola on a longer scale.

I will not point out the similarities to 4e demo playtests. I liked new Coke, dammit!