I needn't have worried as the party went completely off the tracks...
That is a hilarious story!
I was also a bit worried about running this episode, so put more prep time towards it than I typically do (which is fine because that's fun for me). Here’s what I have done for episode 4:
* In advance, I picked the encounters from the text I thought would be fun. So far everythig has been fun and very enjoyable.
* In advance, I chose the number of caravan wagons then assigned cultists, guards, and named NPCs from the adventure - I drew the wagon order on paper with the NPCs listed next to each. Next session will have another copy for players to make their own notes on. During roleplay, PCs were randomly hired by non-cultist wagons.
* NPCs are replaced as necessary with new ones from the text, in the event of combats etc.
* using a clear, plastic hex overlay I calculated expected travel time between cities. I rolled for random wandering monsters and we played it as it happened. I paid close attention to the terrain, so that the encounter would suit where they were on the map.
* I used the opportunity to describe how the game world was changing as they travelled (increased war, raids, monsters, economy grinding, farms/villages pillaged, etc). I'm escalating this - by the time they get to Waterdeep the tragedies get worse and the cult threat to the region will be obvious.
* There was a “circle the wagons” raid, in which the characters had to defend themselves from raiding orcs. Occassional bickering between caravan travellers. This stuff worked.
Here’s what has not worked:
* I’m having trouble getting the players to learn more about the cultists (figuring who they are, being appropriately disguised, etc). Coming up with interesting roleplay encounters that build on the overall story is proving difficult.
* Factions have almost no presence in our game so far. That’s my fault for not effectively introducing them, but my players seem uninsterested in secret societies and factions. Working on this now..