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<blockquote data-quote="EzekielRaiden" data-source="post: 8456044" data-attributes="member: 6790260"><p>Bit late to the party on this one, but I thought it might still be worthwhile to weigh in. Averages can be misleading, however, since it is quite rare for <em>every single</em> roll to be near the average. That's why you often want to simulate a full spread of results, if possible, rather than strictly dealing with the numerical averages.</p><p></p><p>We <a href="https://anydice.com/program/7eab" target="_blank">can use AnyDice</a> to perform this calculation easily. Literally just took the ordinary 4d6-drop-lowest program <a href="https://anydice.com/articles/4d6-drop-lowest/" target="_blank">presented here</a>, modified to keep the top 3 out of 5 rather than the top 3 out of 4. As you can see from the graph version (rather than the table version, which isn't very easy to make comparisons with), the expected results are {16.44, 15.21, 14.14, 13.06, 11.80, 9.93}. If we round these to the closest integer, we get {16, 15, 14, 13, 12, 10}. This is a little bit more than +1 to every stat, as the default 5e array is {15, 14, 13, 12, 10, 8}: a componentwise subtraction gives {1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2} for a total of 8 additional points, though the biggest differences are at the lowest end of the curve (and partially caused by rounding.) The 5e point-buy exactly reproduces the default array.</p><p></p><p></p><p>This is fair. (Incidentally, <a href="https://anydice.com/program/25451" target="_blank">adding a 7th roll</a> to the above example gives {16.60, 15.48, 14.53, 13.62, 12.64, 11.45, 9.68}. Meaning that, on average, the low roll you discard is quite likely to be no less than 7, implying that all your <em>other</em> rolls are usually 8+. The statistically average array becomes {17, 15, 15, 14, 13, 11, 10} with the 10 being discarded. Adding a 7th roll to the ordinary 4d6-drop-lowest option instead gives an expected average array of {16, 14, 13, 12, 11, 10, 8}, with that 14 being literally a hair's breadth from rounding up to 15 instead.)</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="EzekielRaiden, post: 8456044, member: 6790260"] Bit late to the party on this one, but I thought it might still be worthwhile to weigh in. Averages can be misleading, however, since it is quite rare for [I]every single[/I] roll to be near the average. That's why you often want to simulate a full spread of results, if possible, rather than strictly dealing with the numerical averages. We [URL='https://anydice.com/program/7eab']can use AnyDice[/URL] to perform this calculation easily. Literally just took the ordinary 4d6-drop-lowest program [URL='https://anydice.com/articles/4d6-drop-lowest/']presented here[/URL], modified to keep the top 3 out of 5 rather than the top 3 out of 4. As you can see from the graph version (rather than the table version, which isn't very easy to make comparisons with), the expected results are {16.44, 15.21, 14.14, 13.06, 11.80, 9.93}. If we round these to the closest integer, we get {16, 15, 14, 13, 12, 10}. This is a little bit more than +1 to every stat, as the default 5e array is {15, 14, 13, 12, 10, 8}: a componentwise subtraction gives {1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2} for a total of 8 additional points, though the biggest differences are at the lowest end of the curve (and partially caused by rounding.) The 5e point-buy exactly reproduces the default array. This is fair. (Incidentally, [URL='https://anydice.com/program/25451']adding a 7th roll[/URL] to the above example gives {16.60, 15.48, 14.53, 13.62, 12.64, 11.45, 9.68}. Meaning that, on average, the low roll you discard is quite likely to be no less than 7, implying that all your [I]other[/I] rolls are usually 8+. The statistically average array becomes {17, 15, 15, 14, 13, 11, 10} with the 10 being discarded. Adding a 7th roll to the ordinary 4d6-drop-lowest option instead gives an expected average array of {16, 14, 13, 12, 11, 10, 8}, with that 14 being literally a hair's breadth from rounding up to 15 instead.) [/QUOTE]
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