How does the TTRPG industry works?

[Bedrockgames]

DragonAGE with Green Ronin is a good example of what you want to do.

I remember liking DragonAGE when I played it

 

[AbdulAlhazred]

This is all speculation based on how I remember these things happening, but I feel that Paizo and WW kind of offer to very different potential paths to other companies or other games dethroning WOTC or D&D. In the case of WW I think it was more in line with what you mentioned in your first paragraph, they were bringing in a new and fresh approach (a new aesthetic, new system, something more culturally relevant to the 90s youth culture) and they both attracted a a lot of existing D&D fans but also seemed to bring in new gamers. With Paizo I think WOTC left open a vacuum when they shifted editions, where many existing fans didn't feel like changing to the new edition, and Paizo basically grabbed the market that vacuum opened up. Going forward I have no idea what is going to make D&D have the maximum size RPG fanbase but I do think any time there is a change in D&D other companies will see opportunity to step in if the change causes loss of fanbase.

Right, mid 90's TSR D&D was pretty stale, at least in many people's view. So WW came in with a rather new style of gaming and meanwhile TSR was buying a knitting company or something, and banning people from doing playtesting, lol. Even so, TSR did respond pretty effectively with things like Spelljammer and Planescape. Note that both TSR and WW ended up going down, lol. WotC revitalized D&D, and WW Storyteller has kind of drifted for the last 20 years, with the company pretty much out of business. So I'd say D&D kind of won that round...

And yeah, Paizo is a weird case. WotC pretty much CREATED them, handed their print magazines to them, AND let them interpose themselves into the customer relationship. This is a real business no-no. Its fine to outsource, but you NEVER let the service provider build a relationship with the customer, that's always BAD, like "why are you working for me anymore?" bad. So WotC got what they had coming to them on that one. The Paizo people just very wisely and systematically took what was given and built it into a nice business. Still, PF is a wart on the side of 5e. It got moderately popular in 4e days, still has a relatively big following, but their market share is pretty small. Seems to me their business model is "cater to a small cadre of very active fans who spend a good bit" and leave the mass market to WotC.

 

[Bedrockgames]

And yeah, Paizo is a weird case. WotC pretty much CREATED them, handed their print magazines to them, AND let them interpose themselves into the customer relationship. This is a real business no-no. Its fine to outsource, but you NEVER let the service provider build a relationship with the customer, that's always BAD, like "why are you working for me anymore?" bad. So WotC got what they had coming to them on that one. The Paizo people just very wisely and systematically took what was given and built it into a nice business. Still, PF is a wart on the side of 5e. It got moderately popular in 4e days, still has a relatively big following, but their market share is pretty small. Seems to me their business model is "cater to a small cadre of very active fans who spend a good bit" and leave the mass market to WotC.

Its purely anecdotal. But the only two games I used to see when I went to cons and shops for playtests around 2010 or so were pathfinder and 4E. I think they did have a pretty sizable portion of the base at that point, but with 5E, I think they got most of those people back to D&D (and now D&D seems bigger than it has been in a while, which I think is from a number of different things coming together)

 

[Morrus]

I mean, @Morrus, you're no idiot, I am guessing there are plenty of ways to use your skillset that are at least as lucrative, maybe a lot more so, than EnWorld. That was the sort of decision I faced back in the early 80's, to start publishing games, or go into a more traditional and well-paying career. Not saying I made the right choice necessarily, will never know...

Well, the skillset is more "small business owner". The product happens to be TTRPGs.

 

[AbdulAlhazred]

Its purely anecdotal. But the only two games I used to see when I went to cons and shops for playtests around 2010 or so were pathfinder and 4E. I think they did have a pretty sizable portion of the base at that point, but with 5E, I think they got most of those people back to D&D (and now D&D seems bigger than it has been in a while, which I think is from a number of different things coming together)

Yeah, it was never really clear what factors contribute to the waxing and waning of D&D and TTRPG in general. 4e was at a bit of a low point, but the contributions of various factors is an open question. If you were to imagine WotC going ahead and sticking to 4e or making some revised '4.5' instead of 5e, would it be equally popular right now? Nobody can say, really.

Oddly I keep running into more and more people who want to play 4e again! That's just me though, lol. But there is always the possibility that RPGs, being at a high point now, may fall back in popularity. There need not be any great mystery about it, reversion to the mean is a thing.

 

[AbdulAlhazred]

Well, the skillset is more "small business owner". The product happens to be TTRPGs.

Yeah, my family ran several of them when I was young, and I started 3 different business myself. Regardless of the business it is, owning one is rarely the route to vast wealth, lol. It can be very satisfying though. I hope you are having fun, or feeling fulfilled at least.

 

[happyhermit]

Anyway, the most consistent figures put the 'Hobby Game' industry at about $1.5 billion,

I don't see anyone estimating it to be that low, maybe old numbers? The "Hobby game market" which excludes most board games that people have heard of, in the US and Canada is higher than 1.5B.

... The TTRPG numbers vary between different reports between around $50 million at a low, and I didn't see any that topped $100 million. I would say, they all talk about 'strong growth' and most reports were written at least a year ago, so I wouldn't think $100 million as a sort of round figure would be crazy. ...

Here are some recent numbers;
Hobby Game Sales Over $2 Billion in 2020

 

[AbdulAlhazred]

I don't see anyone estimating it to be that low, maybe old numbers? The "Hobby game market" which excludes most board games that people have heard of, in the US and Canada is higher than 1.5B.


Here are some recent numbers;
Hobby Game Sales Over $2 Billion in 2020

Doesn't seem particularly inconsistent with anything I saw. I do wonder about the geography though, other figures I saw included at least some of the European market and were no higher than this. Anyway, clearly there is more than one methodology here. In any case, $100 million TTRPG market seems about right! It never ceases to amaze me that MINIATURES is 4x bigger than RPGs though, lol.

 

[S'mon]

I'd think you could best test the water by including a starter/introductory version of the TTRPG in with an associated video game, and see if people respond positively. If so you could then consider hardcopy distribution, but I'd think probably that's best done via drivethrurpg Print on Demand initially.

You have a big advantage as a videogame company - you presumably have an established customer base, with an established distribution network (eg Steam, GOG etc). There's enough overlap between video game & TTRPG customers to give you a good leg up here. But you don't want to be sinking a lot of money into box sets sitting in warehouses until you've tested the water. And you want the TTRPG to be supporting a videogame, and vice versa.

 

[Morrus]

It never ceases to amaze me that MINIATURES is 4x bigger than RPGs though, lol.

You don't need to collect and build armies of Player's Handbooks!