How many people subscribe to D&D stuff?
- Thread starter MerricB
- Start date
Dannager
First Post
It's worth noting that the change is probably indicative of a large number of community accounts being deactivated by the switch, rather than the result of 10,000 subscriptions disappearing over the last five months, and is further evidence that the number displayed in the group membership reflects only a subset of the actual number of D&D Insider subscribers.
While it's not impossible that 10,000 subscribers ended their subscriptions in the last half year, it runs counter to the projected increases we would expect based on data over the last five years. Based on rates of decline in growth over the last few years, we shouldn't expect to see net losses of subscriptions until 2015. It's possible that the announcement of D&D Next caused some to end their subscriptions, but I see that as unlikely given that the practical utility of the subscription won't decrease at all until the game is actually released (and it also occurred well before the last measurement period).
While it's not impossible that 10,000 subscribers ended their subscriptions in the last half year, it runs counter to the projected increases we would expect based on data over the last five years. Based on rates of decline in growth over the last few years, we shouldn't expect to see net losses of subscriptions until 2015. It's possible that the announcement of D&D Next caused some to end their subscriptions, but I see that as unlikely given that the practical utility of the subscription won't decrease at all until the game is actually released (and it also occurred well before the last measurement period).
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Hussar
Legend
This is probably the biggest culprit. Sigh.
jodyjohnson
Adventurer
I made a list of My Groups yesterday because I though it might be useful for data on how the Group counts register.
Counts from the actual group page
The numbers reported in the My Groups listing are substantially lower than the actual Group Page except in the case of the D&D Next Group where they match exactly.
On my personal groups page the numbers right now (8:45am Sept. 10):
D&D Insider - 29655 Members
D&D Playtesting - 1755 Members
DnD Next - 4557 Members
Dungeons & Dragons - 3469 Members
Living Forgotten Realms - 1916 Members
The numbers seem to be climbing as users log in.
Maybe update again tomorrow and next week to see if they return to yesterday's pre-upgrade numbers.
| Group | Sept. 9 | Sept. 10 | Decrease |
| Dungeons and Dragons | 5823 | 4548 | -21.9 |
| DDI | 88137 | 73390 | -16.7 |
| DDN | 8751 | 4555 | -47.9 |
| LFR | 2872 | 2218 | -22.8 |
| Playtesting | 3158 | 2851 | -9.7 |
| Online RPG | 45714 | 39273 | -14.1 |
Counts from the actual group page
The numbers reported in the My Groups listing are substantially lower than the actual Group Page except in the case of the D&D Next Group where they match exactly.
On my personal groups page the numbers right now (8:45am Sept. 10):
D&D Insider - 29655 Members
D&D Playtesting - 1755 Members
DnD Next - 4557 Members
Dungeons & Dragons - 3469 Members
Living Forgotten Realms - 1916 Members
The numbers seem to be climbing as users log in.
Maybe update again tomorrow and next week to see if they return to yesterday's pre-upgrade numbers.
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jodyjohnson
Adventurer
| Group | 9/9 | 9/10 | 9/12 | 9/13 | 9/10 Group | 9/12 Group |
| D and D | 5823 | 3463 | 5582 | 5843 | 4548 | 4566 |
| DDI | 88137 | 29654 | 70908 | 87435 | 73390 | 73392 |
| DDN | 8751 | 4553 | 8120 | 8751 | 4555 | 4584 |
| LFR | 2872 | 1916 | 2779 | 2872 | 2218 | 2224 |
| Online RPG | 45714 | 17383 | 45614 | 45706 | 39273 | 39272 |
| Playtesting | 3158 | 1754 | 3096 | 3157 | 2851 | 2850 |
It really looks like a lot of these numbers only register when people actually sign in to the Forums. There was a huge jump back to normal numbers on the My Groups listing while the actual counts on the Group page were pretty static.
My 9/9 numbers are from the group pages since the My Groups listing didn't show group size.
LFR, Online RPG, and Playtesting are back to within 100 of their Monday numbers.
D&D and DDN are less than 10% down.
DDI is the only group substantially down still.
But it is the largest group and less likely to be checking the forums religiously. Between Dragon within the week and the normal weekend gaming I expect a return to near 9/9 numbers Monday or Tuesday.
Edit: added 9/13 data for the My Groups listing, the group pages have the exact same numbers as 9/12.
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delericho
Legend
So... any update to this? For no reason other than that I'm curious.
jodyjohnson
Adventurer
There's been almost no change since the numbers on Friday.
DDI is up 2 -- that's fairly significant because it used to grow 30 a day. I expect the DDI group to DDI account ratio has achieved parity.
DDN group is up 2.
D&D group is up 2.
Online RPG is down 1.
The rest of the numbers are exactly the same.
For actual paying subscribers I think the 73392 range is absolute minimum but given the extremely slow growth on the 87437 number I would doubt there are many more subscribers out there who are going to open community accounts at this point. While I expect they've been losing ungrouped subscribers for quite some time the subscribed and Grouped numbers will probably start to erode. Likely at an accelerating rate.
Between the PDFs and DDI WotC is still generating enough revenue to keep the lights on. This is still the first edition change with that order of subscription revenue and back catalogue sales to float the transition.
DDI is up 2 -- that's fairly significant because it used to grow 30 a day. I expect the DDI group to DDI account ratio has achieved parity.
DDN group is up 2.
D&D group is up 2.
Online RPG is down 1.
The rest of the numbers are exactly the same.
For actual paying subscribers I think the 73392 range is absolute minimum but given the extremely slow growth on the 87437 number I would doubt there are many more subscribers out there who are going to open community accounts at this point. While I expect they've been losing ungrouped subscribers for quite some time the subscribed and Grouped numbers will probably start to erode. Likely at an accelerating rate.
Between the PDFs and DDI WotC is still generating enough revenue to keep the lights on. This is still the first edition change with that order of subscription revenue and back catalogue sales to float the transition.