I wonder what the 3rd party publishers, who are dependant on WotC think?

[Cergorach]

But none of us, readers or publishers, have enough information to make an informed business decision yet, and that's unlikely to change for the very near future.

Do you mean 'if' or 'when'?

WotC is like the Microsoft of the p&p RPGs. When MS anounces a new OS, it's not a matter wether or not you want to migrate, it's a 'when' do we migrate. While a new OS might be buggy and slow on first release, it's waiting on the patches that will determine when the new OS is good enough to migrate to (from the business side). Software developers don't wait around and decide whether the OS is any good, it can be a pile of dung for all they'll know. The mamoth in the field has decided to go in a new direction, the rest can do little but follow or stay alone in the cold...

I could be wrong, but isn't WotC the same kind of mamoth when it comes to releasing a new edition of D&D? While there are a lot of folks saying that they won't convert because 3E works fine, they have enough stuff for it for a lifetime, 4E sucks, and hundres of variations on the theme, the same was said with the advent of 3E. A lot of those naysayers either converted, aren't around anymore, or are now part of a very small minority.

Unless Paizo intends to publish it's own 3.5E compatible PHB/DMG/MM, primarily supporting 3.5E isn't viable in the long term. The player base shrinks enourmously, because most folk are going to follow the mamoth, and new players are not going to show up in large numbers (as there is no PHB available outside of the secondhand market). And all those folks that have spent thousands of dollars on 3.5E will have very little need for another book you publish for a line that's essentially dead.

So why would you need to see a final version of the SRD to make an informed business decission? I feel it's like saying that you need to check by how much it's going to flood before getting a boat ;-)

I can see companies that have their own derived ruleset happily moving forward with their specific gamelines (M&M, True20, C&C, Spycraft, Conan, etc.), they have their own niche group that really isn't affected much by the release of 4E. I could be wrong (again), but Paizo isn't one of those companies.

 

[Ranger REG]

I can see companies that have their own derived ruleset happily moving forward with their specific gamelines (M&M, True20, C&C, Spycraft, Conan, etc.), they have their own niche group that really isn't affected much by the release of 4E. I could be wrong (again), but Paizo isn't one of those companies.

AFAIK, they haven't come up with their own standalone RPG product, either based on the SRD or not. All they make are support products for d20/D&D. It's not a bad thing.