mearls said:
I think there are just as many gamers out there as ever. They just don't buy anything, because they don't see much worth investing in.
i know a lot of gamers who hardly, if ever, buy anything gaming-related. it's hard to get some of them to buy their own
dice.
i think this is an important difference between gaming and some other hobby activities -- it's perfectly possible to play in a role-playing campaign for years and years and never need to buy additional books. i, like probably many people here, have played in extended campaigns using systems that are long out of print.
this is different from many other leisure activities. if i want to see a (live in-person) sports game, i've got to buy a ticket. if i want to go see another one, i have to go buy another ticket. same thing with movies. i can purchase the DVD or VHS when it comes out and watch it as many times as i want, though -- but it gets boring watching the same movie over and over every day. the movie companies know i'm going to go back to the theatre or buy another DVD pretty soon.
even the same thing with computer games. most computer games (even CRPGs) don't have a lot of replayability. after playing through the game once, i probably won't bother doing it again unless i buy an expansion pack or the sequel. again, the company knows they can eventually get more money out of me.
it doesn't necessarily work that way with role-playing games. firstly, one can game with the same book for 20 years and never run out of things to do with it. this hurts sales. secondly, you don't even really need your own copy of the book -- i'm sure we've all been in groups where only the GM or a fraction of the players actually owned the rulebook. this also hurts sales.
in order for game publishers to stay alive, gamers have to be constant consumers, continually buying new books. RPGs as they currently exist don't always fit that model.
(on the other hand, i have heard a lot of gamers who won't play a game if new stuff isn't coming out for it and/or complain when new material is slow in reaching the market. so i guess the publishers should take heart in that.)