Initial Print Runs

[Greymarch2000]

Hey all, I was directed here by some people at the KenzerCo boards.

A friend and I have been thinking of publishing a pen/paper d20 sourcebook based on a licensed product (which is still a secret at this time ) and have made some initial plans.

One thing that has come up is that the holders of the license have asked us what kind of initial sales quantities we'd be looking at, and we really have no idea.

Does anyone have a rough idea of approximate quantities of product that are sold for this type of thing for an initial print run?

Basically, this is a sci-fi d20 game based on the d20 Modern rules set. The license is fairly old, but should still have a fair amount of people that remember it. Are we looking at an initial run of 500 books? 2000 books? 5000 books?

Any help would be appreciated. Thank you.

 

[cleaverthepit]

That's a very difficult call. My guess, knowing nothing of the product, layout, popularity, liscence etc. is 600-800. However, a hugely popular sci-fi translation may do better. Marketing plays a big role in your intial sales also. Be aware you are entering a bloated market (though that area is not so bloated).

 

[Axegrrl]

I can't give you any answers, but I can tell you some things you need to think about:

What is the minimum turn-around time, from the time you say "go" until the books hit the shelves, for a given print run?

For example, suppose you do a small initial run of 500. Then suppose that it sells like mad, and you need another 1000 fast. How soon can the printer get them done? Are you willing to pay your printer a premium to bump someone else's print job?

Next, how fast can they be shipped? That is directly related to how much you're willing to spend on shipping.


And consider the fact that you will have errors that aren't found until you get to hard copy. You want to figure out in advance how long you will want to take to fix them. These aren't big changes to the text; these are adding one more name to the credits, fixing a typo or xref here or there, and that kind of thing. (Hint: prioritize the types of errors you want to fix, preferably right after you send it to the printer.) If you choose to make any corrections, you need to add this time to the number of days between print runs.


When Unearthed Arcana came out for 1st ed, TSR gave everyone a 2-week holiday. They underestimated how well the books would sell. That left a lot of people waiting for the second printing -- and led to some anger towards TSR.

Larger print runs can be significantly cheaper on a per-copy basis.

But you have to balance all of that against the thought of "What if it doesn't sell?"

Good luck.

 

[Pramas]

Does anyone have a rough idea of approximate quantities of product that are sold for this type of thing for an initial print run?

It really depends on what the license is. Generally, I would not recommend printing more than 500 for a first product of a brand new company in the current d20 market. That assumes you can get a decent print quote, which you might not be able to for runs smaller than 1,000. When you get printer quotes, you'll need to figure out your cost of goods and see if a 500 book run can actually make you money. It may, it may not (I've never gotten quotes for runs that small, so I can't say for sure). The thing about printing is that a lot of your costs are for set up so the unit price goes down the more you print (as once the set up is done, it's just a matter of running the press). It can thus be tempting to print 3,000 or 5,000 but unless you've got a really great license you do not want to print more than 2,000 to start. And honestly, in the current market and with your position in it, anything over 1,000 is going to be a gamble.

 

[MEG Hal]

It really depends on what the license is. Generally, I would not recommend printing more than 500 for a first product of a brand new company in the current d20 market. That assumes you can get a decent print quote, which you might not be able to for runs smaller than 1,000. When you get printer quotes, you'll need to figure out your cost of goods and see if a 500 book run can actually make you money. It may, it may not (I've never gotten quotes for runs that small, so I can't say for sure). The thing about printing is that a lot of your costs are for set up so the unit price goes down the more you print (as once the set up is done, it's just a matter of running the press). It can thus be tempting to print 3,000 or 5,000 but unless you've got a really great license you do not want to print more than 2,000 to start. And honestly, in the current market and with your position in it, anything over 1,000 is going to be a gamble.

I concur 100% with the above statement.

 

[Greymarch2000]

I concur 100% with the above statement.

Heh, now I just found out that the information that they're looking for is more along the lines of, how much do we expect to sell in a year?
How long would you expect a printrun to last?

Thanks by the way!

 

[Cergorach]

Heh, now I just found out that the information that they're looking for is more along the lines of, how much do we expect to sell in a year?
How long would you expect a printrun to last?

Thanks by the way!

If the licensed product is 'Three little pigs go to hollywood' don't get your hopes up on selling a single unit, on the other hand if it's 'Harry "Freakin" Potter' expect a couple of million in the first three months, anything else falls in between...

How do you seriously expect answers with such little information and such a general premise? Green Ronin probably sells a lot more than Trol Lord, even between different products within the same company sales of products are very different.

Maybe you could provide more info, but even then, without a trackrecord of your company, it's still guessing and very far from accurate.

Only advice i can give is err on the side of caution, don't give up your day job, and only use money you can miss (permanently).

 

[Greymarch2000]

If the licensed product is 'Three little pigs go to hollywood' don't get your hopes up on selling a single unit, on the other hand if it's 'Harry "Freakin" Potter' expect a couple of million in the first three months, anything else falls in between...

How do you seriously expect answers with such little information and such a general premise? Green Ronin probably sells a lot more than TrollLord, even between different products within the same company sales of products are very different.

Maybe you could provide more info, but even then, without a trackrecord of your company, it's still guessing and very far from accurate.

Only advice i can give is err on the side of caution, don't give up your day job, and only use money you can miss (permanently).

Yeah, it's kind of hard to say I guess. It's just that we're sort of trying to keep it all kinda hush-hush (although I don't really know why).
I suppose the real people to be asking would be suppliers, as in how much would they order.

But this has been helpful. Better than one of our friends guess 2500 out of his ass after a few beers

 

[jgbrowning]

Yeah, it's kind of hard to say I guess. It's just that we're sort of trying to keep it all kinda hush-hush (although I don't really know why).
I suppose the real people to be asking would be suppliers, as in how much would they order.

But this has been helpful. Better than one of our friends guess 2500 out of his ass after a few beers

I wouldn't reccomend any more than 1000. If you can't be profitable with a 1000, including all production (writing, art, layout, shipping) and marketing (advertisements, conventions, reviewer mailings, distributor mailings), I wouldn't recomend doing it. Unless you have a solid plan to grow into a profitable situation through additional releases, that is. Even then, don't spend anything you're not willing to kiss goodbye.

Take this advice with a grain of salt since I don't know what benefit (nor what cost) your liscense is to you. As a small gaming publisher, controlling costs is very important.

joe b.

 

[Jim Butler]

Heh, now I just found out that the information that they're looking for is more along the lines of, how much do we expect to sell in a year?
How long would you expect a printrun to last?

Thanks by the way!

It sounds like they're looking to find out how much money the license will earn if they make the contract. If it's a major license, they're trying to figure out if it's worth the approval process, and they'll use the number you give them to determine that.

At Wizards, we used to use a $10,000 figure. If the license wouldn't earn that, it wouldn't be worth the lengthy approval process, contract negotiations, and tracking hassles that it would require. At least one company we dealt with wanted us to pay the salary of a full-time approval person (hired by them at their offices) just to read through all the materials.

They might also be looking to use this number to set a guarantee (from you) regarding the amount of royalty they'll receive. They might demand a hefty part of that amount up front.

Unless the license is huge, I wouldn't print more than 1,000 of them. If it's something fairly minor, I wouldn't print more than 500. And I'd secure distribution before you print anything (or you might see considerably fewer sales).

As for how long your book will sell for once you print it, figure 45 days. A vast majority of RPG books see 80% or more of their total lifetime sales in this period of time.