Is D&D (WotC) flaming out?

[Alzrius]

You know instead of having posts like this, i would like to see everyone that still goes for edition wars, to get in speedo's oil and wrestle it out. I would pay good money to see that.

If you get that, then I'd like to see the ladies of the edition wars offer an interpretive dance of the saga thus far.

 

[Ulrick]

That may just be my perception, of course, but it did lead to this question: is WotC (and by extension, D&D itself) flaming out? .....

Or have I just become an old(er) grognard?

A little bit of column A, a little bit of column B.

I, too, have noticed the acceleration of the production cycle: More splatbooks in less time, a new version ("essentials") released at a record speed, etc.

But, I lean toward grognard. Let's face it: WotC did not target 4e toward older players. They want younger players who have not seen all of this stuff before to replenish the ranks. The Red Box is possibly an exception.

People who are 30+ are not WotC's target market. Heck, in 2004 Matthew Sarnett, Dragon Magazine Editor-in-Chief remarked in issue #320: "The age of the average D&D player is closer to thirty than thirteen, and the audience is aging."

That was a little over six years ago. In the same "Wyrm's Turn" he said how the game needed to change to attract younger players by catering to their tastes, tastes that have been exposed to fantasy before being exposed to D&D.

I think WotC's product line has declined further with 4e. But then again, I've already made my investment in AD&D, both 1e and 2e, and 3.0/3.5e. I've seen everything before.

Perhaps the same has happened to you and many others.

 

[JoeGKushner]

In terms of marketing, Essentials is all up in the older players 'base' if you will. Even the carton ad they just did with the 30 second bunny theater isn't about some new 4e adventure, it's about a 30 year old adventure.

Much of the language of Essentials comes right from older editions including rogue having a thief option and a backstab power among other bits.

WoTC keeps trying to get the 40+ crowd to play a game they know and loved when they were kids but doesn't seem to get that the monstrous rules bloat is just sending them, if they choose to keep playing, into the arms of the various retro clones.

 

[kitsune9]

Well, I can't honestly say if D&D is flaming out since we don't get to see their financials and make any analytical projections. Obviously, their scaling back, but that doesn't necessarily mean that that they are getting ready for the deadbook.

All business models go through peaks and troughs though and I guess we'll all have differing views as where WotC is in a peak or a trough. For some of us, D&D has been in it's downfall since they announced 2e and for others, many believe that we're climbing the slope to the peak for DDI and 4e is bringing a Golden Age.

As for me, I think WotC is in a bit of a trough due to the scaling back, but I think they will figure out something to reach their next peak. Time will tell.

 

[Ydars]

D&D 4e IS flaming out.

Matt Sprang, head of Mongoose, is a very clever RPG businessman. He apparently has a way of working out the actual sales figures of his competitors from various sources (I am referring to a cryptic reference he made in his book 'I am Mongoose, so can you').

Matt has recently stated in his annual 'State of Mongoose'

see here Mongoose Publishing : For All Your Gaming Needs ...

that 4E sales are in the doldrums and that Pathfinder is doing very well. Hence why Mongoose is pulling out of 4E completely and going with Pathfinder (incidentally, No; this is about DATA and not about edition wars. I don't play Pathfinder).

And for those who think the hobby is healthy, Matt also has some warnings; he is looking to diversify because RPGs are no longer sellling as they once did. I believe that the 4E debacle has done serious damage to the hobby (and no, I am not a 4E hater; though I don't play it anymore).

I think 2011 could be challenging times indeed for this hobby.

 

[Mercurius]

There is a sense of the waves drawing out to sea just before it comes crashing back in...or is it the dragon's in-breath just before...???

It does seem that WotC is reformulating how they do D&D. A lot has been said of the Essentials line as being an "evergreen" product that gives them a baseline to fall back on. But what if it is a last hurrah, at least in terms of print versions of D&D? I would like to think that we will continue to see new and interesting takes (editions, sub-editions, new product lines, etc) of D&D every few years but in actuality what I believe is going on is a re-centralization of D&D around DDI, that--as I said some months ago--DDI is the new core game and thus always "in-print", infinitely update-able and with no need for awkward errata sheets crammed into the back of your Player's Handbook.

But the truth is, I like my books. I don't want my D&D library to be my computer. Call me a luddite. Call me old school, an old fogey, I don't care. To take a lick from Sting, albeit with a very different meaning, I want my pen-and-paper RPGs!

And I want them to be pen-and-paper.

 

[Dannyalcatraz]

Would you be interested in Dream Craft, Everway or The Primal Order?

How about Diplomacy, Axis & Allies and Robo Rally? Heroscape? Alpha Blitz, Guillotine or Pivot?

Can't sell you Barbarossa or Wellington's Victory? Dawn Patrol, Star Probe or Divine Right? No Cavaliers & Roundheads, Chainmail, Tricolor, Tractics or Don't Give Up The Ship? No Awful Green Things From Outer Space, Snit's Revenge, Knights of Camelot or Dungeon!? They've Invaded Pleasantville or Revolt on Antares?

How about Steppe, Maxi Bour, 4th Dimension, Chase or Elixir?

You wouldn't even buy Boot Hill, Gamma World, Top Secret, Gangbusters or Star Frontiers?]

I have played and would play most of those again...

 

[Derulbaskul]

While I have been incredibly critical about WotC's e-turds and the whole DDI mess (and the testicle-free zone which is WotC's leadership), I think 2010 has brought some real positives to the D&D brand.

Essentials worked well. 4.5E was much better handled than 3.5E, so much so that most people reject the idea of Essentials as 4.5E.

Gamma World was also an important product. I really like it, feedback across the 'net seems positive and I can't wait to get the next two boxed sets and run a campaign from 1st to 10th. I'm really hoping the success of Gamma World will result in some other 4E-based games in 2011: Star Frontiers would be my first pick although I am not sure if it is a popular enough franchise to resurrect. I would also love to see a standalone steampunk/fantasy western game created in the same way (like FFG's Spellslinger for 3E).

 

[Relique du Madde]

If WoTC's DND was "flaming out" then WOTC would have various employees log onto ENWorld and make the following announcements:


For fun WOTC employees love printing out OGL statements, or gathering old DnD Books, for kindling.

4e WAS the one true edition....

5e IS HERE ALL YOUR BOOKS ARE OBSOLETE!!!!1111!! LOL

TEH NEXT DND SETTING IS BASED ON AN ANIME VIDEO GAME AND WILL BE A COLLECTIBLE CARD GAME EXPANSION SET FOR MAGIC THE GATHERING AND WILL BE CALLED MAGIC AND GATHERINGS !!!!

HASBRO has ordered WoTC to sell off all DnD related IP to Keven Siembieda for 1 penny. In return, WoTC has agreed to toss its entire collection of material related to the Dungeons and Dragon's brand into a blast furnace... and post the video onto YOUTUBE, HULU, and iTunes.

WoTC would post one message in which they would defaming every ENworld visiting celebrity and their accomplishments while espousing the virtues and superiority of the bad layout using "purple site".

There would be one message that also lists every writer who worked on a DnD related property/brand then proceed in calling each and every one of them a talentless hack.

WoTC would announce that the reason they killed GLEEMax was because they Sold it to FACEBOOK. Yes, that's right... FACEBOOK IS GLEEMAX!

WoTC's final message would be photograph of EGG's grave, DND Oe, and a Fire with a grandma inappropriate message that is aimed at the viewer.....


Unless WoTC does all (or any) of that, I doubt they will "flame out." If anything they will vanish into nothing like many companies did during the 3.0e -> 3.5e bust.

 

[El Mahdi]

If you get that, then I'd like to see the ladies of the edition wars offer an interpretive dance of the saga thus far.

Now I've got an image in my head of D&D bohemians LARPing to a bongo accompaniment...