D&D 5E (2014) Is Point Buy Balanced?

We already have that in intimidation.

Then great news!

False.

1) And this is the big one. Lots of time it doesn't cause you harm. Someone not liking you and/or what you just did =/= harm.
2) Deception can fail and then what?
3) Persuasion can fail and then what?
4) There will be times that persuasion is an auto fail for reasons in the fiction, but intimidation can work.
5) There will be times, albeit very rarely, when deception will auto fail for reasons in the fiction, but intimidation can work.
2 and 3 is the same for Intimidation (especially if you happen to have the same modifier and DCs).
And what reasons in the fiction are there for there to persuasion to fail but intimidation to work? How do you communicate this in game so that the players understand this and can take this into account?
 

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2 and 3 is the same for Intimidation (especially if you happen to have the same modifier and DCs).
And what reasons in the fiction are there for there to persuasion to fail but intimidation to work? How do you communicate this in game so that the players understand this and can take this into account?

Typically I try to broadcast it to the players through RP. For example a street thug may not respond to persuasion but will to intimidation. So they may respond with "Pretty words don't mean a thing" or I'll just portray them as cowardly but self-centered. As I said above insight checks or even something like a history check come into play as well. If you know the history of the region you may know that soft diplomacy is viewed as a weakness, at least as part of first contact.

Most of the times I don't wait for the player to ask for an insight or history check, I'll just tell them to make one if I think it makes sense for the scenario.
 

Your graph seems a bit off because 4d6dl is skewed to higher numbers.
We are graphing very different things, in very different ways.

Your graph is a probability curve, and shows the chances of rolling one particular number on 4d6 (drop lowest). Your graph shows that the chances of rolling a 15 are about 10%, for example.

My graph is a histogram--a summary of results. I built a model in Excel that generates six ability scores using the 4d6 method, adds up the ability score modifiers for all six, and then reports the result. Then I ran that model tens of thousands of times, and graphed the number of times that each result showed up. For example, my graph shows that when it ran 160,840 iterations, about 20,000 of them were +5...about one out of every eight.

One thing I find interesting is that the odds of getting an 18 are about the same as getting a 5 or lower. The odds of a 17 or higher are about the same as a 17 or lower.
I'm not sure I follow. Your graph shows the probability of getting a 17 or 18 to be about 6% (~4% for a 17, and ~2% for an 18). That means the probability of getting a 17 or lower is about 98%.

It's not unusual to have a very wide disparity of results with rolling. If you're house ruling so you don't get results like this, then how random is it really?
It's mostly a matter of taste, if I had to guess. Not everyone enjoys the same amount of randomness in the game, after all, so they make house-rules to suit their preferences. And that's less a "math" thing and more of an "opinion" thing.
 
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note: I was using the built in system randomizer for rolls which isn't really all that random. So I spent a bit of time yesterday getting a list of 1000 numbers from 1-6 from a true random number website and then I just start at a random starting point in that array. So the distribution of die rolls should be good.

You can test your random numbers for bias by generating 10,000 of them, then the average should be 3.5.
 


It's random enough to make people complain about it. 🙃

If you're modifying the roll for stats enough to ensure everyone gets "good" numbers then I would rather just use 3e point buy and the heroic array. If you aren't you end up with a wide disparity of effectiveness on a regular basis and I'd rather use the standard array.
 

2 and 3 is the same for Intimidation (especially if you happen to have the same modifier and DCs).
And what reasons in the fiction are there for there to persuasion to fail but intimidation to work? How do you communicate this in game so that the players understand this and can take this into account?
2 and 3 are different skills, though. If they fail, intimidation can still work.

(In the local lord's manor with the Tarrasque coming)
PC: (knowing the Tarrasque is mythical to the point that almost all believe it not real) "My lord. An army of demons similar to the ones we defeated in Garoka is coming this way. You must evacuate the entire town, because we cannot face them before morning."

DM: "Roll deception."

Player: "2 on the die for a total of 10."

Lord Skeptic: "How dare you lie to me! My steward is practiced in the arts and he would know of such an invasion. And I can sense the falsehood on your lips."

PC: "You are right. I lied because I feared the truth would be even less believable..

Lord Skeptic: (interrupting) "And what is this truth?"

PC: "...the Tarrasque is real and it is coming this way. Nothing can stand in its path. My companions and I might be able to stop it, but as I said, not before morning. We have to have rest or we will surely die in the attempt. Please! Please evacuate before it's too late."

DM: "Give me a persuasion check at disadvantage because of the lie you were caught in."

Player: "Dang it all! Natural 1 for a total of 9."

Lord Skeptic: "You expect me to believe in fairy tales now!? Enough of your lies. Get out of my sight before I have you arrested."

PC: (growing angry): "You were right to name us as the ones who freed the country of Garoka from the hordes invading from the Abyss. We are also the ones who defeated the great dragon of the north, leaving its carcass to rot in an empty field. And we stopped the god Snee Kee from turning the city of Suhkurs into a bastion for thieves and assassins. If you don't evacuate this city now, by the gods we will track down you and your family, executing one for every one of your people who dies here. Evacuate, now!"

DM: "Roll intimidation."

Player: "Finally! 27!"

DM: "Lord Skeptic turns sheet white at your threat. He knows you are capable of making good on it. After a few moments to process he responds to you."

Lord Skeptic: "F-f-fine! But know that I will never forget this. You may be powerful, but I am still lord of this place and your better."

(sometime later with half the town destroyed and the carcass of the Tarrasque at the feet of the PCs)

DM: "You see Lord Skeptic walking towards you nervously."

Lord Skeptic: "I... (he glances towards the Tarrasque) I never imagined that it could be real. You saved countless lives here. (Lord Skeptic fidgets a bit) I will not.....................seek any retribution for your threats. You had no other choice. I can see that now. In fact...(Lord Skeptic turns to his scribe)... Chibbers, take note that these heroes are welcome in my town free of any duty. I will pay the inns and stores for what they wish to buy, within reason."

As you can see, the three skills are very different in what they are trying to accomplish and when you might want to use them. Failing at one might impact another, but wouldn't preclude another from working. They aren't the same. Nor will intimidation always result in bad stuff happening to the group, even if the person being intimidated is rightly angry and/or afraid of the PC(s).
 

I don't love it, but I don't hate it either. This reduces the landscape of possible score arrays from 54,264 to 12,232. A reduction in diversity of 42,032 but I can live with 12,000 arrays.
Same here...personally I'd just let the player reroll if they were unsatisfied with the results, or let them switch to Point Buy. As long as they aren't annoying everyone by rolling over and over again trying to get multiple 18s or whatever, I won't mind. (I'd also try to talk them into using point buy if they were looking for something specific.)
 
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It's not unusual to have a very wide disparity of results with rolling. If you're house ruling so you don't get results like this, then how random is it really?
That's precisely my perspective on it. That is, I have an abstract principle stand, and a personal when-I-have-to-live-with-it stand.

On the abstract principle side: If you're going to design a game where folks have to roll, then you should accept certain other things. The randomness should be expected. Character death should be frequent, so nobody really cares what their stats are. Etc. The problem, of course, is that while this produces a game that is self-consistent with its own design goals...it also produces a game I have outright negative interest in playing.

Hence, the when-I-have-to-live-with-it side: If you're going to make me do randomness, give me as much of a release valve as I can get against the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune. I don't like being the guy with great stats any more than I like being the guy with crappy stats (and yet most of the time I am one or the other.) Give me multiple slates, let me arrange as I like, reroll 1s, whatever--I want to be as far as possible from totally random stats, because I don't play D&D for KuHrAyZeE RaNdOmNeSs!1!2!@@!21! If I wanted a freakin' roulette wheel, I would go play roulette. I want to roleplay, and I want to game, and I want both of those things to inform one another. Neither of those things has particularly significant use for KuHrAyZeE RaNdOmNeSs. The randomness is simply there to make sure that we don't have a solvable game--that we can make predictions, but have to account for the possibility that those predictions end up inaccurate to varying degrees. That helps to keep the game fresh, and to reward both those who take calculated risks, and those who shore up their weaknesses. It also helps to drive the roleplay forward by allowing for unexpected interactions or permitting external resolution of events--that is, I am not declaring what happens, I am doing what I can with what I have, and working with the consequences as they arise.

It's perfectly fine for folks to want the vagaries of the dice to overwhelm everything else, such that your choices barely matter and your numbers definitely don't matter. But forcing that to be the default is hegemonic in a way that the reverse is not. A pile of entirely useless verbiage cannot be easily beaten into shape until they create a humming engine....but an engine can be smashed to pieces to produce a pile of entirely useless verbiage. Trivially easily, in fact. Hence, because it is extremely difficult (indeed, impossible in many cases) to assemble a working (mathematical) engine out of broken, disconnected, and largely-irrelevant pieces, but very easy to smash a working (mathematical) engine into a bunch of broken, disconnected, and largely-irrelevant pieces...well. If it's trivial to go one direction and nigh-impossible to go the other, which spot makes more sense to start in?
 

And 112% will just invent percentages out of thin air to try and prove a point that isn't correct.
I was simply giving a hypothetical example.

If you wanted the numbers I actually believed, you'd better as hell expect that the proportion of GMs who treat Intimidate like a personal excuse to screw over their players as hard as humanly possible would be in excess of 50%.

I am completely convinced that the culture of play with Intimidate completely, thoroughly ruins it as a skill. It is not merely risky, it is completely detrimental in the long term, an active trap that lures you in with the promise of utility and then produces nothing but harm beyond the five seconds after you rolled it.

There's no consistency in a TON of 5e rules and rulings.
Yes. And isn't it interesting that WotC's survey feedback indicates that that was a problem they needed to address?

Isn't it funny how the very things I kept talking about a decade ago are finally coming home to roost?

It's almost like the "white room" isn't as useless as people thought.

What you guys are asking for is a return of 3e and codified rules for everything under the sun, and a lot that isn't under the sun.
Absolutely the hell not. You, as much as anyone else here, should know that I have negative interest in going back to that. I think the designers of 5e WANTED to go to that, but they couldn't because they didn't have the manpower. So they just didn't write anything at all, which is totally the best choice ever right? Just don't tell people ANYTHING and you can't be wrong!!!

Instead, what we need are rules that recognize that they are abstractions, and exploit that fact. Because an abstraction necessarily captures multiple things at once, that's....kind of the whole point of abstraction in the first place.

Concrete, comprehensive, simple: Pick two. If you want rules that are concrete and comprehensive, you get 3e, and all the ills that follow. If you want concrete and simple, and actually design it well, you get Dungeon World--but D&D as a community would never accept DW because its idea of "concrete" doesn't comport with D&D's idea. Which leaves comprehensive and simple, but not concrete--meaning, abstractions leveraged to capture nigh-infinite spaces with straightforward rules structures, ones that can be easily understood and easily extended to cover the overwhelming majority of cases GMs and players might encounter.

Then--only then--you can address the rare and unusual corner cases with rulings, because no rules will ever be perfect and corner cases will always exist forever. The existence of corner cases does not justify neglecting to design actually good rules, for the same reason that rounding errors do not justify skipping your algebra classes. Mathematical rigor has value even in a world where perfect rigor is impossible.

We already have that in intimidation.
No. We don't. That's the problem.

But you won't actually listen to anything I have to say about it, so there's no point discussing it further.

And this is the big one. Lots of time it doesn't cause you harm. Someone not liking you and/or what you just did =/= harm.
For example, this.

It is NEVER, EVER just someone disliking you. Because someone disliking you isn't """consequence""" enough for most GMs. That dislike must actually motivate the target to DO something against you. Something that will--ALWAYS--hurt you.

I have personally had several GMs who do this. That's why I never touch Intimidate. It's not worth the cost. Even if you get a GM who is copacetic and doesn't treat Intimidate as the Evil Skill For Evil Evildoers Who Evil Evilly, there's no way you can know that at chargen, so it's just never worth it. A box that might contain one billion dollars, OR might contain the equivalent of one ton of T&T that will blow up in your face the moment you open it, is not a box worth opening. Doesn't matter if the chance is 50% or 10% or 1%. Nobody is going to open that box, because a 1% chance of horrific death is not worth a 99% chance of a billion dollars.
 
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