D&D 5E (2024) Is WOTC done publishing campaigns?

[bedir than]

There were an average of over 30 million who watched each game of the world series. The maximum any game had of those who watched were 50 million.

An average of 15-16 million watched each game in the US.

In context, if there were 80 million D&D fans in relation to those numbers, it would mean if you walked down the street in any US city and asked each person you would have a 5x better chance of talking to someone who was a fan of D&D (Fan, not just someone who knows it exists) than you would of someone who watched the Baseball World series.

the fact that you keep insisting that every baseball fan in the world would watch the World Series continues to baffle me.
I'm a fan of the Seattle Mariners. Why would I watch the World Series?

As a fan of the Seattle Sounders I'm a soccer fan, but that doesn't mean I'm a fan of a random game in England.

A fan doesn't interact with 100% of each subset of the fandom. That's never how marketing and fandom work.

Baseball has about 500 million fans, which includes people who go to a college game in Japan or a national team game in Cuba.

D&D having 80 million fans doesn't mean that it has 80 million players, because fandom has never meant that.

 

[GreyLord]

you do not have hard number of players for 1e or 5e, you may have hard number of PHB sales for 1e, but that is about it

I am not sure why WotC is cagey outside of a ‘it is always better to have some wiggle room’ approach, I however doubt that 1e sales have anything to do with it

I have put out the way that some of this is figured out, and how I do numbers is that there are 5 fans/players for every PHB put out. This means that if we estimate that 5 million PHB's and Red boxes (and then account for overlap, because there definately was overlap) of AD&D you could have anywhere from 15 million to 25 million "fans" of the game during that period.

If we go with the higher number, back prior to 2020, if we had 3 million 5e PHB's sold, that would be around 15 million (5 to 1 rule) which would equal to be 40 million lifetime fans.

If we go with the end cycle of 2023/2024 of 5e and say that there were 5 million PHB's sold, that would be around 25 million fans/players (not accounting for overlap).

Which could lead to the maximum numbers of 50 million players and fans throughout D&D's lifetime.

If we add on another 5 to 10 million (estimates of Beyond and 2024 5e sales...not including calculations for overlap which would absolutely be needed for a more accurate estimate) for a total of 2 million more PHB's sold in those methods, we arrive at around 55 to 60 million fans.

I have no idea where the 80 million fans came from and I am surprised people are arguing that is even a number...but here we are.

Also, it's crazy to see my numbers being used as an argument against my own statements...which is ironic and funny...but here we are.

 

[GreyLord]

I wonder... Are you an American or from somewhere else?

D&D was popular in the 80s across all of Europe that wasn't the Soviet Union, maybe not in the same way as it was in the US, but there were translations all over the place. But it had competition from other pnp RPGs games as well... Translations of the Basic D&D Red Box were done in many languages, I know of the German one and the Dutch one. Especially the Dutch one (which I still own) was a minor miracle, at the time there were not even 15 million Dutch citizens (but there were less then 6 million Flemish Belgians as well that would speak Dutch as their main language). And I seem to remember seeing some French D&D stuff as a child (when going there on vacation). And that's besides folks just preferring the English versions of the D&D books (like myself), over the native language products.

Some interesting German D&D history: The history of german D&D/AD&D as I know it • Collecting General • The Acaeum

Back in the 80s there were international distributors that bought products in the US and sold them all over the place. And of course vice versa.

It was extremely popular. I would estimate that 1e was more popular in general over the entire world, but 5e probably has a higher number of players than 1e ever had. I would also say that 5e is more popular in English speaking nations than 1e, but 1e had a broader reach into the non-English speaking nations in general (at least at present).

 

[GreyLord]

the fact that you keep insisting that every baseball fan in the world would watch the World Series continues to baffle me.
I'm a fan of the Seattle Mariners. Why would I watch the World Series?

As a fan of the Seattle Sounders I'm a soccer fan, but that doesn't mean I'm a fan of a random game in England.

A fan doesn't interact with 100% of each subset of the fandom. That's never how marketing and fandom work.

Baseball has about 500 million fans, which includes people who go to a college game in Japan or a national team game in Cuba.

D&D having 80 million fans doesn't mean that it has 80 million players, because fandom has never meant that.

What in the world are you on about?

Where in my post that you quoted did I even hint at that?

Please reread the post and adjust appropriately rather than trying to claim things I didn't even bring up in that post. (especially as I was far more explicit and detailed in how it was stated).

 

[mamba]

I have put out the way that some of this is figured out, and how I do numbers is that there are 5 fans/players for every PHB put out. This means that if we estimate that 5 million PHB's and Red boxes (and then account for overlap, because there definately was overlap) of AD&D you could have anywhere from 15 million to 25 million "fans" of the game during that period.

you definitely undervalue that overlap, also, there are not 5M 1e PHBs sold, that number is 1.5M. At 5 players per PHB, you have a maximum of 7.5M.

The 5e PHB has sold about 6M copies (not counting digital), and then was replaced with a new version that is not being counted in that number. So around 30M+ 5e players vs 7M 1e players.

Which could lead to the maximum numbers of 50 million players and fans throughout D&D's lifetime.

players <> fans. There can be 50M lifetime players and 80M current fans at the same time

I have no idea where the 80 million fans came from

85M fans is a WotC number, they did not explain what makes one a fan

 

[bedir than]

What in the world are you on about?

Where in my post that you quoted did I even hint at that?

Please reread the post and adjust appropriately rather than trying to claim things I didn't even bring up in that post. (especially as I was far more explicit and detailed in how it was stated).

you have insisted that since only 30 million watch the World Series this means that people who say there are 80 million D&D fans are claiming there are more D&D fans than there are baseball fans.

It's impossible to backup while understanding what fandom is.

 

[FitzTheRuke]

This thread is evidence of that idea, that yes, there are many out there who actually will not only believe there are 80 million fans despite the incredubility of it all, the evidence against it, but will actively argue that the idea of 80 million current fans is actually accurate!

I don't think that's true. I don't think anyone believes that there are absolutely, totally, 80 million current D&D fans. I don't think others are misunderstanding what you're saying - I think that you are misunderstanding what they are saying. At most, people are arguing that the number is possible, depending on how one estimates these things. No one is clear if they mean total fans ever or if they're tying to claim total current fans. It's probably possible if they mean ever, but it's obvious (to everyone, not just you) that there really isn't any way to come to that number without a whole lot of speculation.

Also, folks on the internet love to argue about the details, and some of your specific assertions just don't hold up well. In particular when you demand actual numbers from others, while you insist that it might be "50 million" because you feel that way.

You're right that people can't fathom big numbers, though - to most people, 50 million; 80 million, the difference is... meh!

 

[FitzTheRuke]

It was extremely popular. I would estimate that 1e was more popular in general over the entire world, but 5e probably has a higher number of players than 1e ever had. I would also say that 5e is more popular in English speaking nations than 1e, but 1e had a broader reach into the non-English speaking nations in general (at least at present).

I'm sorry, but this is an example of one of your assertions that makes you look like you have no idea what you're talking about. D&D's reach currently absolutely and completely destroys what it did in the 80's.

And I've never heard anyone on this thread claim that they believed that D&D absolutely definitely has 80 million current fans. (Some have argued that it might be possible, depending on what is meant by "Fan". That's all.)

You're arguing against a supposed group that doesn't exist, and laughing at how much cleverer you are than they are.

 

[Zardnaar]

I think they have deliberately obscured things lije hard numbers. 80 million is just a PR number.

Hard numbers are things like D&D beyond accounts.

Active numbers those ponying up money are way lower.

They were claiming at one point 15 million D&D beyond accounts. 1.5 million were active.

My main point earlier was the amount of players are probably smaller than sone people throwing around x10 and x100 multipliers.

Consider this.

1981-1991.

1E phb sold 1.5 million.
Two boxed sets blood 1 million+.
Another sold 600k
2E phb was front loaded early release.

Expert set I forget the numbers.

5E sold more than that combined but not drastically (X2 or 3 not X10+). TSR split things up over multiple lines. Population is higher now as well.

So WotC has unified things but theyre not really that fair ahead core product to core product of peak TSR. They're run a lot better.

Difference is one product vs multiple and the internet. Not sure how much money beyond is making vs how much they paid (active players and active players paying money is sonething else).

5E theoretically has secured D&D next 30 odd years. WotCs greed could wreck that however. Eventually 5E will decline and not sure if beyond can be updated to 6E and inertia on Beyond could also be a thing. See what happens.

A gard number of PHB sold woukd clear things up. Could be as low as 2 million perhaps I lean more towards 3-6 number myself (pre 5.5).

 

[zakael19]

D&D's reach currently absolutely and completely destroys what it did in the 80's.

Wait, you mean having a blockbuster "TV" series + wide release movie + one of the most critically acclaimed computer games of the last few years + merch and books available in like every single major book & geeky place means that D&D has a huge cultural reach now? Surely not...

My wife is currently playing BG3 with 3 of her co-workers who are not D&D players at all - but they're considering getting a game together when they're done!