D&D 5E (2024) Is WOTC done publishing campaigns?

[GreyLord]

I'm sorry, but this is an example of one of your assertions that makes you look like you have no idea what you're talking about. D&D's reach currently absolutely and completely destroys what it did in the 80's.

And I've never heard anyone on this thread claim that they believed that D&D absolutely definitely has 80 million current fans. (Some have argued that it might be possible, depending on what is meant by "Fan". That's all.)

You're arguing against a supposed group that doesn't exist, and laughing at how much cleverer you are than they are.

In the US and the UK...sure.

In Japan (where I have visited in both eras) absolutely not, and that applies to several other areas as well I visit regularly as well. In fact, in some areas where TSR had a presence back to the 90s even (where D&D was having a lot less impact later on in that decade) D&D is practically non-existent these days where I visit. A lot of that is probably down to availability (which is ironic considering some of those areas and what governments were in charge back then...though the late 90s were a lot less oppressive).

Part of it is the current outreach of Hasbro and WotC pertaining translations, outreach, and other areas which would spread it beyond the english speaking world a lot more effectively. One reason they do not is probably due to cost vs. profits in those areas, where you get a lot less on return than you do in areas that are English speaking and areas closer to the English speaking arenas.

PS: I expect you have great experience in your local area regarding sales, but I would wager I traveled a lot more in my business dealing with investments before I retired, and even now, than most people on these forums.

 

[GreyLord]

you have insisted that since only 30 million watch the World Series this means that people who say there are 80 million D&D fans are claiming there are more D&D fans than there are baseball fans.

It's impossible to backup while understanding what fandom is.

No, read it again.

I hate to repeat myself. However as you are insultingly refusing to address what I actually said and are trying to put out a strawman...

In summary, I said 30 million watched the world series (game) to a maximum of 50 million with 15 to 16 million of those on average in the US.

Which means walking down the street, if there are 80 million current D&D fans, you should on average, when questioning them, have a 5X better chance of finding a D&D fan than someone who watched the World Series.

I think you'd have a better chance of addressing those that watched the World series than are D&D fans, and I think if you look at TV and the returns on ads, you'd find the the money probably supports that one (singular speaking) game of the world series brings in a lot more money than even some of the more D&D popular episodes of a D&D play broadcast or much less most of anything else with D&D beyond the core rulebooks or starter sets (which is still questionable in some ways...depends on the game and the viewership most likely).

 

[GreyLord]

I don't think that's true. I don't think anyone believes that there are absolutely, totally, 80 million current D&D fans. I don't think others are misunderstanding what you're saying - I think that you are misunderstanding what they are saying. At most, people are arguing that the number is possible, depending on how one estimates these things. No one is clear if they mean total fans ever or if they're tying to claim total current fans. It's probably possible if they mean ever, but it's obvious (to everyone, not just you) that there really isn't any way to come to that number without a whole lot of speculation.

Also, folks on the internet love to argue about the details, and some of your specific assertions just don't hold up well. In particular when you demand actual numbers from others, while you insist that it might be "50 million" because you feel that way.

You're right that people can't fathom big numbers, though - to most people, 50 million; 80 million, the difference is... meh!

You know, I'm one of the ones who puts together estimates and people arguing against my reasoning are using my own estimates to argue against me?

It's absolutely ironically funny.

Also, I have no idea where that 80 million number came from. Was there some press release recently that claimed this number?

I don't think even Hasbro thinks this.

Can you point me to this source?

My current estimate (without taking in overlap) was 60 million (fans over lifetime).

My real estimates I've stated in this thread regarding current numbers.

 

[GreyLord]

85M fans is a WotC number, they did not explain what makes one a fan

Source. I have not seen this from them. They have not addressed it in investor calls as yet either, that I can tell. They have not addressed it in investor meetings as far as I can tell.

MtG only has 50 million as a solid number they've given, and you are stating current fans are greater than lifetime players of MtG (which makes a lot more money than D&D).

So...once again...source...(as in, from WotC).

 

[FitzTheRuke]

In the US and the UK...sure.

In Japan (where I have visited in both eras) absolutely not, and that applies to several other areas as well I visit regularly as well. In fact, in some areas where TSR had a presence back to the 90s even (where D&D was having a lot less impact later on in that decade) D&D is practically non-existent these days where I visit. A lot of that is probably down to availability (which is ironic considering some of those areas and what governments were in charge back then...though the late 90s were a lot less oppressive).

Dude. I've played D&D 5e in Japan. I'll grant that it's not super well known there, but you're flat-out wrong that 1e had a "bigger worldwide" impact than 5e has. 1e was translated into a fraction of the languages that 5e has been. The world is a bigger place than "The UK, USA, and Japan".

Again, it's not the thrust of your argument: The press-release cannot be trusted when it said there are "85 million" fans. Of course it can't be trusted! It was PR spin. It's the details where your argument breaks down, starting with your primary assertion: That you are the one who understands it better than those that disagree with you.

Part of it is the current outreach of Hasbro and WotC pertaining translations, outreach, and other areas which would spread it beyond the english speaking world a lot more effectively. One reason they do not is probably due to cost vs. profits in those areas, where you get a lot less on return than you do in areas that are English speaking and areas closer to the English speaking arenas.

PS: I expect you have great experience in your local area regarding sales, but I would wager I traveled a lot more in my business dealing with investments before I retired, and even now, than most people on these forums.

... See? You just plain don't know anything about me, or anyone else here, to make that claim.

 

[mamba]

1E phb sold 1.5 million.
Two boxed sets blood 1 million+.
Another sold 600k
2E phb was front loaded early release.

Expert set I forget the numbers.

5E sold more than that combined but not drastically

on the other hand, you will find quite a bit of overlap between 1e, 2e, and Basic sales, so the combined number is not all that meaningful

 

[FitzTheRuke]

My current estimate (without taking in overlap) was 60 million (fans over lifetime).

You seem to be drifting closer to the number all the time!

 

[GreyLord]

Dude. I've played D&D 5e in Japan. I'll grant that it's not super well known there, but you're flat-out wrong that 1e had a "bigger worldwide" impact than 5e has. 1e was translated into a fraction of the languages that 5e has been. The world is a bigger place than "The UK, USA, and Japan".

Again, it's not the thrust of your argument: The press-release cannot be trusted when it said there are "85 million" fans. Of course it can't be trusted! It was PR spin. It's the details where your argument breaks down, starting with your primary assertion: That you are the one who understands it better than those that disagree with you.


... See? You just plain don't know anything about me, or anyone else here, to make that claim.

That's great...were you also there during the 1e years and the 2e years? Or are you just basing that off of 5e?

I don't think you have any idea how large it was in Japan back then comparetively, and if you are the average age of those in business, I'd say you probably were not invested heavily in business back then
as per the 85 million fans statement, I will once again say...Source?

I've given my estimates which I think HAS is going to work more closely off of, but if there is a different source stating 85 million that is "officially" from HAS or WotC, I'd like to see it.

 

[GreyLord]

You seem to be drifting closer to the number all the time!

I never was. Did you not read my original post. That's lifetime fans. I calculated the number. I've calculated the numbers for over 5 years now from 40 million to present.

I stated if anything, it had to be fans over the lifetime of D&D...from the start. I said it was impossible that 80 million is the current number of fans.

No one has posted any sources or anything at all the back up that 80 million claim.

PS: My estimates of current numbers of players and active fans are a Lot lower than either of those as well. I posted that a while back, but people are arguing about 80 million being current numbers. My argument from the start is that it could not possibly be 80 million current fans. The numbers simply don't support it.

If your argument is that we are discussing lifetime fans, then you probably should go back and address the initial statement I made regarding this matter which dealt with those numbers overall...and once again, when discussing my calculations I have always utilized it as fans over the entire history of D&D...not current fans, though the wording may have made it seem like that was the number of currently active fans at times.

I did NOT calculate anything with 80 million though...so...once again...source?

 

[mamba]

Source. I have not seen this from them.

Thanking Our Community for a Great 2024

During D&D's 50th anniversary, we celebrated the most important part of our history, our fans. We are thankful for all 85 million of you worldwide.

www.dndbeyond.com

“During D&D’s 50th anniversary, we celebrated the most important part of our history, our fans. We are thankful for all 85 million of you worldwide.”