D&D 5E (2024) Is WOTC done publishing campaigns?

[zakael19]

oh, and the covid-boom

The amount of entirely players I've had over the last 5 years who decided to finally give D&D a shot because of a combo of Covid + BG3 + CR cannot be overstated.

In one game, 3 players just because "covid and I want to do something with my friends on the internet." 5 others combining the last two to finally jump in and find a DM. 3 in another game who did the BG3 -> D&D pipeline.

I think that something like 50% of the ~30 players I've run games for over since 2020 were completely new, or had started playing within the last 6 months of our game.

 

[HatWearingFool]

Ok. So Forbes claims that 50 million player over the lifetime of the game was released sept 2021, but I can’t find the release.

But our timeline. Is 2020 - 40 millions fans, 2021 - 50 million life time players, 2024 - 85 million fans

So does fans = players? Do they think 10 million new people played in 2021? I’m not saying that’s the claim, just posing the question based on the timeline.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/robwieland/2021/05/19/2020-was-the-best-year-ever-for-dungeons--dragons/?sh=4a3b3d8e4f37

 

[HatWearingFool]

That's an article from Sept 2024 and appears to be using more akin to my numbers.

Or is the idea that they increased the number of fans by 35 million in a matter of 3-4 months (time when the Beyond article seems to have been posted which was Dec. 2024).

Those numbers don't seem to add up...or something strange happened for that massive of a jump in a 4 month period.

Typo??? Maybe they meant 55 million instead of 85 million...seems more reasonable of a jump.

Though I will note, the NPR one specifies play....while the 85 million number seems like it grammatically could be referring to fans (earlier stated in the sentence) but in reality could be referring to anything.

I think all references to 50 million come from what ever release Forbes was reporting in in 2021. 50 million appears in a ton of articles (2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024) from that point forward without ever changing.

 

[bedir than]

So does fans = players?

no
WotC isn't making that claim

 

[GreyLord]

so the movie would have made less money than it did...

of course nearly zero fans do 50% of everything they are a fan of.

I'm one of 311s biggest fans according to streaming services. I've only made a third of their local concerts. That doesn't make me a non fan

It depends. If they had 50 million fans...1/3 of 50 is 16.666 approx million fans. Average price of a movie ticket ranges around 11-16 USD...which we'll say is around 13 (probably more on the low side than not, I'd say it is probably more around 14 or 15 for a median...but we are giving it room for doubt here). 16 x 13 is somewhat over 200 million (215 million). That's giving a LOT of leeway.

30% of fans spending money on a massive singular event (a rare event at that, how often does a D&D movie come about...and one that is supposed to be a good one at that!) is not an unexpected item...and 50% should be more around the expectation of a major event like this.

It's not only in a singular location, but in thousands of locations around the globe as well, when it was released. The expectation, based on the arguments given and the number of fans was the thought of more of an event like the original Guardians of the Galaxy movie (a lot fewer fans stated overall going in, but with general appeal to general audiences). It was even comparatively given that aspect prior to it's release!

The problem was someone figured this as current fans...not lifetime fans. That actually makes a massive difference in calculations and overall profit, which...if you look at the number of guesstimated current fans in what I would calculate, the D&D movie actually did extremely well.

 

[HatWearingFool]

no
WotC isn't making that claim

I didn’t say they were, but fans jumped 45 million in 4 years according to them. So it’s not unreasonable to think they would have said 50 million fans one year after claiming 40 million fans.

And 50 million life time players was one year after claiming 40 million fans… were there more players than fans?

 

[GreyLord]

Ok. So Forbes claims that 50 million player over the lifetime of the game was released sept 2021, but I can’t find the release.

But our timeline. Is 2020 - 40 millions fans, 2021 - 50 million life time players, 2024 - 85 million fans

So does fans = players? Do they think 10 million new people played in 2021? I’m not saying that’s the claim, just posing the question based on the timeline.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/robwieland/2021/05/19/2020-was-the-best-year-ever-for-dungeons--dragons/?sh=4a3b3d8e4f37

If we use my definitions from earlier, it does not necessarily mean players. It means those who are avid, excited, participants of the hobby. That could mean anything from players, to those who read the novels, to those who simply participate in other ways that support the hobby.

From an investors viewpoint it would be anyone who is a big enough fan that they actively support it (normally by spending money in some fashion, or has money spent as a result of their actions...for example...you may be on beyond with a free account, but the game you are in has a DM or someone who has spent money to actually buy materials to support that game).

 

[GreyLord]

I didn’t say they were, but fans jumped 45 million in 4 years according to them. So it’s not unreasonable to think they would have said 50 million fans one year after claiming 40 million fans.

And 50 million life time players was one year after claiming 40 million fans… were there more players than fans?

I don't know. I only know my numbers are derived more from how many have played (and the 1:5 ratio has a good backing all the way back to 2000. It was estimated that the average group was 5 players, a DM with 4 Others playing PCs. Encounters, Challenge Ratings, Experience...etc...have all been based on that ratio since then). As per that, I have put out the number of LIFETIME fans (or I suppose one could put that as players over the lifetime of D&D) without overlap inclusion as around 60 million currently.

If we include overlap that gets far more trickly, and I'd probably put it more around 40 to 50 million players over that lifetime, still...with around 35 to 40 million a few years ago (with some of the bigger hits to those numbers coming from the TSR days due to overlap and lower estimate of players).

I can note this distinctly does NOT include how many were fans simply reading novel lines and books (I have no idea what those numbers look like...at all) so perhaps someone has access and is doing the math that way?

 

[zakael19]

Has this thread really spent like 10 pages arguing that there are/aren't genuinely a numerically crap ton more players/"fans" of D&D today than 30+ years ago?

 

[GreyLord]

Has this thread really spent like 10 pages arguing that there are/aren't genuinely a numerically crap ton more players/"fans" of D&D today than 30+ years ago?

I think the general agreement (even from me) is that there are more players (or fans, however one wants to put it) of D&D today than there were of the past.

The disagreement comes in how many players/fans there actually are. And yes, we've spend 10 pages discussing whether that 85 million refers to fans over the lifetime of D&D, or whether it refers to actively current fans of D&D.