BryonD
Hero
There is some truth to that, but I wouldn't underestimate Blizzard's ability to adapt and keep up.because Warcraft is connected with the merits of a technology product that is going to be outdated, most probably in the next 5 years.
I think that is all correct. But there is still more to it.Wotc, wanted to enter the digital realm. This was their intention with 4e. 4e was structured on the idea of a product being cool and manageable by a digital environment. Thus the utterly structured tactical encounter environment that 4e limits its balance upon. As a player, you do not want to fight monsters and traps, you do not want to swing mighty swords: your job now is to be a good defender, however the game rules tell you how to do it.
OTOH, Paizo has been trying to focus on the merits of 3.5e as a traditional tabletop rpg.
I think WotC wanted to go digital because they saw what a huge boon it was for WOW. And I still don't think 4E is WOW, that isn't my point here.
My point is, I think WotC saw and coveted:
A) Vast numbers of people pretending to be elves
B) Those people handing over credit cards numbers for automatic monthly charges.
With books every single customer looks at each unique title and makes a call whether or not to lay their money down. With a subscription everyone buys everything. It is far more efficient. As long as the average is good enough to keep the customer coming back, every product is tied with your best product. So not only do you have more people, you have more money person. And as icing on the cake, being able to reliably forecast cash flow months out allows you to manage your finances better. Those reliable dollars, in real terms, end up being worth a little more.
Paizo gets very similar advantages from their, admittedly different, subscription model.
But your second point also gets into the game itself. And that is where they tripped up. The assumed, or at least hoped with enough faith to roll the dice, that people willing to be an elf in WOW meant there were a hell of a lot more people willing to be an elf in D&D. There are very fundamental differences and when they designed 4E as a game aimed at the new market, it failed on that front. Yes, there are new players. But there is no evidence that the rate of new blood into D&D is any better now than it has been at any other point in time. Those non-D&D playing WOW fans stayed non-D&D playing WOW fans. And they lost a bunch of their existing fan base for their effort. 4E was not designed to appeal to me. Of course they WANTED me to find it appealing. But priority one was getting those completely new players. And if losing me was the price of five new players, sorry Bryon, but it is a non-brainer choice. And if they were right, it would have been. But the five new players did not materialize. Rather than getting 5 for 1, they are left with fewer people playing the current edition of D&D than there has been in a very long time.