Maybe. I don't feel I have enough of a sense of the relevant variables. And I really don't see how they can make Pathfinder go away.I would say that a large source of the problem is that at some point they became rather insular and seemed to lose touch with the fan-base, especially us diehards. As Bryon put it, they focused too much on the many "birds in the bush" and neglected the fewer "birds in hand," who are also the folks that spend many times the amount a casual player does.
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with a bit of direction and well-placed strategic moves, WotC could make the coming out party of 5E a truly memorable occasion.
I agree with the second half - I think Pathfinder (which is, for all those who didn't start with it but migrated to it from officially branded D&D, 3.x) is here to stay.By abandoning 3e, WotC effectively created Pathfinder, and thereby created a situation where many of their fans may never "come home."
I'm less sure about the first half. Why did WotC abandon 3E, and abandon the OGL+SRD model? It's possible that the game designers took control of the business planning division, and decided that all of WotC's corporate weight had to be thrown behind this better new game bringing D&D into touch with Forgist indie design sensibilities. But I think it's more likely that the business planners in WotC had already formed the view that WotC's future depended on breaking free from the OGL+SRD model that 3E was intimately bound up with. That is, I think WotC must have already feared that Pathfinder or something similar was coming into being.
A big part of the issue here seems to be DDI, which is the enemy of 3PP. I see this as a sort of complement to the abandonment of the OGL+SRD model - the GSL obliges 3PP to publish material that is obviously complementary rather than competing, and DDI means that there is, in effect, no prospect of competition in any event.The big tent people seem to be asking the last of the stalwart 4e 3pps to wait outside despite their pleas for assistance
Nobody is going to avoid buying 4e to buy an AD&D manual, and they are only slightly likely to do so for a 3e manual.
I think the concern might be more that those PDFs being available actively supports Pathfinder and the retro-clones, and in that way dilutes support for 4e.I just cannot conceive that anyone shopping for B4 is postponing a 4e purchase.
Perhaps, if what you want is for those old publications to be available for purchase outside the second hand market.I don't want 4e to be my nemesis, yet I think I am reasonable in estimating that it has become an impediment to what I want.