There's also the point that the Vikings came in the hundreds. It wasn't ten guys in a boat. And, by and large, they stayed in England. There's a reason that we add "s" to the end of plurals and it isn't because of the native English population.
TheHobgoblin - umm, there's no need to get quite that excited. We're having a nice conversation, so, let's not ruin it by being rude. Everyone's a friend here.
But, that's my point. You're saying you can win with 10 orcs. Sure. Maybe the first time. Heck, maybe the second. But, 10 orcs vs 20 commoners? Yeah, there's going to be dead orcs in just about every raid, simply because I have twice the attacks that you do, never minding things like dogs, which would be very common.
And, again, why are my peasants living in an area where there is a fairly high threat of attack walking around with only clubs? But, hey, let's go with that. I'm hitting about 45% for 2 damage on average. That's not including crits, which, with 20 attacks, I'm pretty much guaranteed one crit. Plus the half a dozen mastiffs we keep around for exactly this reason. That means you're going to have at least one dead orc and probably two or three by the end of this raid.
A raid where you lose a third of your number is a failed raid.
Orc reproduce faster than humans do. They have more children and they mature about 20% or so faster.
They would be winning if they killed only 8 humans to every 10 deaths. But if they are killing 6-8x as many humans as they lose numbers? That's a pretty guaranteed win. Humans don't pop into existence out of no where. Each human killed is 15-20 years worth of investment. Each Orc killed is about 12-16. The humans are not going to be replacing their numbers fast enough.
How many mastiffs are going to be on a typical farm? Not very many. Maybe 1 or 2. Even if they cause some issues, they are not enough to stave off the Orcs. Again, mastiff stats do not remotely equate to those of Orcs.
The bottom line is still the same... even if we are dealing with only Orcs, the only places that are going to be safe are the super defended walled compounds. But humans need more space than being all cooped up into a tiny walled compound to be able to survive. The humans are not going to be able to defend the vast tracks of land needed to produce the food they need. Not unless the Orcs warn them that they are coming and the humans are suicidal and are universally willing to gather up their numbers and meet the Orcs in assembled numbers on the field of battle knowing that they are likely all to be slaughtered and kill, at best, 1/3rd their numbers of enemies.
And this is just talking about Orcs. Nevermind the Goblins. At least if you show up in numbers, the Orcs will attack you straight on if you show up to fight and aren't very good at hiding. Goblins are even worse. They won't attack you straight on. They will ambush lone travelers and steal your food in the middle of the night every night and run away with everything they have plundered the moment anyone comes up to deal with them. They reproduce even faster than Orcs and each goblin requires about half the investment a human does. Every human would need to be able to take down 2 goblins for every dead human just to keep the numbers even. And they just aren't going to be able to do that. Instead, they are going to have all their goods plundered and anyone who wanders out alone is likely to be killed before they even know they are in danger.
Yes, not every Orc is going to be a trained raider just like not every human is a trained soldier and guard, but a higher percentage of them are going to be that and they spend a lot less investing in each one because not as many Orcs train themselves to be craftsmen, farmers or other laborers. The biggest issue that the Orcs have is that the more successful they are, the less they are going to be able to get away with living off of raiding and plundering soft targets and the more they are going to have to invest in producing their own food or starving to death.
And then you have to deal with the random wandering Ogre. No one is going to be able to do anything about them and even thinking about trying is pointless. You are going to need a squad of well-trained soldiers to be able to handle one Ogre. And if they wander around in packs of 2 or 3? No buildings is going to keep you safe from them.
Oh, and if you have Hobgoblins to deal with? Well.. damn. Reproduce at the same rate as humans, have practically identical intelligence and skill as humans, physically all around superior, more disciplined and orderly than humans which means less likely to run from a fight and their typical trained soldiers are basically Level 1 Fighter/Level 1 Rogues. If they exist out there on your frontier, you either make friends with them or they will wipe out your cities and send your frontiersmen scattering.
I don't know where you get the idea that historically anyone has needed 3x as many people as exist in a town to plunder it. That is simply outright madness. There have been plenty of bandit tribes throughout history who have lived off of raiding and plundering towns and have never needed that many people. In fact, it literally would have been impossible for such a group to survive if they needed that many.
You really don't need very many people to attack a surprised populace and take what you want. Frankly, most people are just going to run scattering for cover the second violence breaks out.
In fact... you know what...
Mod note: You know what, you really shouldn't go here. However much you feel it supports your point, using such a tragedy to support your discussion about how to pretend to be elves is disrespectful and inflammatory. If your point *needs* this example in order to get across, then it isn't nearly as good as you think it is. And if it doesn't need it, you should use some example that doesn't engage the emotions nearly so strongly.
~Umbran
Ever hear of an event that happened in America in September about 13 years ago? Well, in this event people seized control of an airplane using knives. Pocket knives.
Not battle axes. And they didn't have armor. And these people were not wearing armor. And they were not part of a race that is twice as big as anyone else-- in fact, there were almost certainly other people on this plane that were bigger and stronger than them.
They did NOT need 3x as many people as were on the plane to seize control of it. In fact, you know what? They needed about 5 people to seize control of the plane, keep them under control and then actually intentionally crash the plane.
This happened 4 times on the same day. Only the last of those 4 attempts went wrong for them. And that was only because those people talked to others on cell phones and found out about the previous 3 attempts and knew they were going to die regardless.
In 2007, in Japan a guy with a knife... not a battle axe, but a KNIFE, with no armor went crazy and started killing people in the middle of a busy shopping district. He managed to kill 7 people before the police took him down.
This isn't even looking at the almost uncountable scenarios America has given in the last several years about how many people 1 person with guns can kill or control for a length of time. The above scenarios only have to do with using knives.
The truth is, the truth has always been, that if a few people pop out of virtually no where upon people who are not expecting it and are not prepared for it and have no leadership, then there don't need to be very many of them to take out the few people who would actually bother to try to stop them. Particularly if they have weapons and armor and the surprised people do not.
Everyone else is going to either obey the people threatening violence or flee to cover. And if the people attacking are considerably larger, stronger and better trained than the defenders? The defenders don't have a chance. They just don't.
Orcs and Goblins would have no issue rampaging and robbing all the farmsteads in the area blind preventing there from ever being a functional town they need to lay siege to in the first place. Maybe you need considerably more people for an army to lay siege on a defending army in a city. Maybe that's where you have gotten mixed up and confused. But even then, you do not need 3x as many soldiers as there are citizens in the walled city you are trying to attack-- you need 3x as many soldiers as they have soldiers.
But we aren't talking about an army laying siege to a defending army. We are talking about armed and violent marauders attacking unarmed, unsuspecting farmers and villagers. How do you even imagine the town is going to survive long enough to build that wall? Where is their food coming from? Where are their supplies coming from? Where did the wood to construct that building come from?
In all cases, the only possible answer is that the villagers didn't have to worry about any Orcs or Goblins for months and months on end but knew that after this time they were going to have to deal with them. Because if they have to put up with the raids while they are building this great defensive fortress.. then they are never going to get it built in the first place.