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Need economics help

garrowolf

First Post
I'm trying to work up some far future economies. I need ideas for different types.
I remember mention of a scifi book series that was supposed to deal with future economies but I can't find the reference now.
Any ideas?
 

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garrowolf

First Post
So I am trying to figure out ideas for the next economies. On one hand you have 3d printing allowing you to produce nearly anything you want. On the other hand you have the rise of bitcoin digital currency that prevents any government or bank from controlling money. You have people moving out into asteroid belt and mining huge amounts of metals from there.

So what would that economy look like?
 

Dannyalcatraz

Schmoderator
Staff member
Supporter
3D printing is kind of like the homo erectus ancestor of the Replicators from Star Trek. The farther along techonology heads down that path, the closer you get to a post-scarcity economy. Post-scarcity economies would look very unsusual, since- theoretically- most needs and the majority of wants could be satisfied for most humans. That could be very utopian or distopian, depending on a variety of factors:

1) the printing process' cost, considering all factors including pollution and raw materials.

2) the wildcard of human psychology. Just because you can have nearly anything you want does not guarantee peace & harmony. I know of many cases of robberies and killings done to aquire goods that the criminals could easily have afforded to buy. I mean as easily as I can buy a pack of chewing gum.

3) precise details of what can and cannot be "printed." I have already been part of conversations about the possibilities and pitfalls of 3D printing of pharmaceuticals. Sure, it can make the process much cheaper, and filling a prescription may be as simple as feeding a formula into your home printer. However, if you can print legal pharmaceuticals, you can also print illegal ones. Certainly, the gov't could prevent certain drugs from being printable, bue as we all know, street chemists are usually one step ahead of the law with their formulas...

4) the security of the printers. If they're at all hackable, what is to stop someone from replicating the crime of the 1982 Tylenol poisoner on a grander scale?

One thing is also true: Information in the form of formulas for making things with them would become increasingly valuable...if they can be kept secret,
 

Dannyalcatraz

Schmoderator
Staff member
Supporter
As for bitcoin and its cousins, I see those as a historical blip. We've had nonstandardized currencies before- early in in civilization- and they've all ultimately failed in the face of more modern currencies.

Mainly because the modern currencies were easy to use, harder to counterfeit, standardized, and less volatile.
 

Mishihari Lord

First Post
Economics is the study of allocation of scarce resources, "scarce" meaning that not enough is available to satisfy everyone's wants. So you have to ask yourself, what is scarce in my world/universe/story/campaign? Anything that isn't scarce can be safely ignored as part of an economy. Sure, if energy, frex, is unlimited you will have out work out the societal consequences, but it's no longer part of the economy. Off the top of my head, candidates for scarcity that I've seen used in fiction includes energy, creative design, reputation, raw matter, lifespan, reproductive rights, human labor hours, political votes, and real estate. There are certainly many more possible. Most of the attempts I've seen, even in published SF, seemed pretty silly, so if your players are critical types you probably want to do your best to poke holes in your economy to look for flaws before using it.

So you postulated unlimited raw material + 3D printers + nongovernmental currencies. The currency is kind of irrelevant. As long as there's a stable medium of exchange, it doesn't matter what it is. If you assume no other changes, then most of the current economy stays intact. Labor, services, real estate, energy, and medicines retain their current value.

So just for fun, here's one possibility for material goods: each 3d printer, let's call them "assemblers," requires a control chip from the government. Uncontrolled assemblers are aggressively sought and violation result in stiff criminal penalties. Governments really, really don't want people producing personal machine guns, bombs, F-16s, etc. The government requires a yearly tax for operation of an assembler based on size, capability, etc. If you don't pay your tax, the government doesn't send the authorization code for the coming year, and no more printing. So it makes sense for a household to have an assembler for things they use a lot of, but it doesn't make sense to pay for assembler rights for something like a car when a new one is only needed every few years. So there are specialized assembler shops where people buy such things. The other limiting factor is creative design. If, frex, you want a lamp, you buy the IP and assemble one. IP rights are enforced by the control chips. Sure you can design your own lamp, but why bother spending the time when you can get a design for a small fee that looks nicer than yours anyway? Bricks of raw materials ordered online and delivered by Fedex.

A big open question, is if your assemblers can do chemistry. If they can take energy, air, and water and make food our of it, frex, they're going to absorb a much larger part of the economy than if they can just assemble existing materials. Chemistry-capable assemblers will probably take a lot more energy so than that becomes an important part of the price as well. This affects real estate as well, since an awful lot of it becomes available if it's no longer needed for food production.

So, implications. With the exception of material blocks, logistics mostly goes away. If you live in a medium sized city, everything you need can be assembled by someone within a short distance. Manufacturing largely goes away as well. Design and engineering expertise increases in value. Generally everyone has enough stuff, but wealth can be seen from the design of possessions. Poor folks might have crude, self-designed furniture with all pieces of the same type identical, while wealth folks while have attractive furniture of many different types. Same for clothes. Third world governments don't have the resources to properly police their assemblers, so every mayor, tribal chief, and gang boss stocks up on heavy weapons. Conflict ensues and anarchy reigns over most of the third world. The progress of emerging manufacturing economies (China, India) with respect to the first world stalls out. Their manufacturing advantages are gone and the proportion of the population in relevant professions is much smaller than that of the first world. On the other hand there are enough very smart engineers/designer there to make sure that everyone has at least decent stuff, if not as good as first world. They no longer have much to trade with the first world, but they can can continue to copy much of the tech without compensating designers so it kind of balances out. Communist and other totalitarian governments use their control of assemblers to further tighten control of their population.

I find it interesting that with the starting assumptions, I could make a plausible story for apocalypse, utopia, or anything in between. A person's expectations for such scenarios generally tell me more about the person than about what would actually happen.
 

garrowolf

First Post
I broke it up into stages of nanotech. This is what I have now:

[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]TL 15: Cyber Age[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif] [/FONT][FONT=Verdana, sans-serif](2030 – 2110 CE)[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif] Advances in nanotechnology, biology, and computers open up cybernetic interfaces between humanity and our tools. Exosuit power armor develops. Various kinds of fuel cells become common. There are a large number of developments in robotics. Dangerous viruses are explored. Personality recordings are now possible but it doesn't have the spark of the original. The mind is being explored and abused. VR is common.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif] [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]Primitive Limited Nanotech – Only work inside of a assembler. Early medical nanotech. Very restricted usage. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]3d printing is a major factor now. [/FONT]


[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif] Exoarmor surrounds the character, protects, and augments them. They are the precursor to real power armor. They are often used for extreme environments and heavy weapons support. They are like the armor from Avatar or the Matrix, however they are enclosed and armored to protect the driver. The Construction Exoarmor is like the Power Loader from Aliens. Aquatic Exoarmor is great for underwater construction and it has it's own water-jet movement system. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif] Exoarmor is like a walking tank. It is a good defense but not that agile. You can move around pretty well but not do any acrobatics or martial arts in them to speak of. They have a difficult time with entryways and equipment not designed for them. They are big and bulky. The maneuver rating effectively replaces the dexterity of the character when they are in the power armor. The Strength rating in this case is your strength when you use the armor. It does not add to your strength. It replaces it. [/FONT]


[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]TL 16: Fusion Age (2110 – 2200 CE)[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif] Humanity fully explores the solar system. Space is no longer just the realm of megacorps and nations. The asteroid belts are filled with people in a population explosion. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif] Mechs become common combat vehicles; Bioroids so close to human that you can't easily tell are common. Genies are being engineered. Cloning organs is common. Brain in a jar tech is available. Animal uplift explored. Droids become common. Full AI is available.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif] Single stage to orbit vehicles becomes common. A considerable number of space stations are built. Wars expand to other planets. Underground cities develop on other planets and moons. Habits are the new village. Small single man fighters are mostly replaced by drones however they are sometimes used as personal vehicles. They are good in ship to ship combat at the civilian or pirate level but fleet combat doesn't use them at all because they can't really keep up. Space stations will usually have a number of personal craft, largely modified workpods, to function as port security.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif] This is a time of early large scale underwater colonies, mostly scientific and military. Hypercavitation vessels are developed. The aquatic whisperjet is developed.[/FONT]


[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]Limited Nanotech – Only work inside of a assembler. Mostly industrial uses. Replaces 3d printing. More common uses. [/FONT]


[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif] Fusion Age Armors tend to be bulky and with segmented pieces. Think of the Spacesuits from Stargate Universe and Heavy Gear and such. Jumpjets and jetpacks are common. Devices and drones often attach to the outside of your armor to extend its abilities. A jetpack drone could carry you around and then detach and take point once you have arrived. Sensors are getting more powerful at this point. Energy Mapping, back scatter sensors, and powerful Lidar systems give the user a good view of the world around them. Suits are controlled through direct neural interfaces with some basic system backed up on buttons on the arms and thighs. The suits are good tools but they are not self-aware like they become at higher tech levels. They are not capable of stopping micrometeorites but they have some decent on board medical help and they can seal themselves.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif] Active camouflage systems are used to make soldiers invisible.[/FONT]


[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]Power Armor is bulky. Think of glitterboys and Rifts armor. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]Reflec armor layers are used to deflect laser fire. [/FONT]




[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]TL 17: Colonial Age (2200-2300 CE)[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif] Humanity sends manned missions to other solar systems using cryosleep. Large rotator motherships are developed. The various colonies develop into different cultures. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif] Asteroid cities hold most of the people in the Sol System now. Terraforming is being carried out on several planets. Huge space stations, similar to Babylon 5, and arcologies are being built using new materials. Things have an enormous scale to them now.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif] Colonial Age spacecraft are much larger than Fusion Age craft. Their rotator sections are usually concealed and protected by armor. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif] There is large scale colonization of the oceans. Seaquest style vehicles and hypercavitation ships become common.[/FONT]




[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]Moderate Nanotech – Only works inside of an assembler. However you can have self repairing vehicles, starships, and houses. Integrated into everything. People wear a watch that controls the nanites inside them. Replaces cyberware completely and augments bioware. Limited use within a meter of controller. [/FONT]


[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif] Power Armor has evolved to be smaller and more powerful. They are much less bulky now. They are like the ones from Bubblegum Crisis or Robotech Cyclones. They are capable of acrobatics and martial arts with some limitations due to their shape (the GM can restrict a few feats if they don't make sense to him). However they also have flight and jump systems that are tied in with the neural induction controls and allow the user to dodge around at a greater rate then they would normally. What this means is that their reflex rating is based on their Maneuver rating but their Martial Arts and skill use is based on their Dexterity limited by their Maneuver rating. A datajack connection can be used instead of neural induction controls but it won't change the reaction rate. [/FONT]




[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]Stellar Ages[/FONT]


[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]TL 18: Gravitic Age [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif] Star Wars – beginnings of gravitic tech. Lots of previous tech used as well. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]Contra-gravity and artificial gravity open up space to the world. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif] Gravity control allows for inertial compensators so that ships can move much faster without the burden of inertia. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif] Ships travel up to a 100gs of acceleration. Top Shunt 1-5. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]Early Hyperdrives open up space for humanity. Ships are discovering the dangers and wonders of Hyperspace. Huge colony ships are used to carry colonization out into the nearby systems. FTL communications by hyperspace relays, [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]Star Wars, Narn, Centauri, Alternity, Macross Frontier. [/FONT]


[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif] Repulsors are a miniaturization of gravitic technology. They are built into these suits allow them to fly like jet fighters. They are extremely maneuverable in an atmosphere as well as in space. Spacesuits move like Peter Pan instead of like radio controlled bricks. Neural induction control allows them to move at the speed of thought. It has a jump system that makes it easy to move around a battlefield. Basically they are like the power armors from Iron Man. [/FONT]


[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif] Moderate Nanotech – Nanite mining becomes common, nanite foam is used a lot. [/FONT]


[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]TL 19: Hyperspace Age [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif] Multiple levels of hyperspace discovered. More advanced Hyperspace – Honorverse, less use of thrusters. gravity globes, Living Spacecraft, Farscape,[/FONT]


[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif] Power armor is more advanced with more adaptability. It can function as a nanotech swarm in gauntlets and belts. It will deploy along the body very quickly. Think in terms of Extremis Ironman or Guyver. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif] Certain specialized equipment is highly reconfigurable. [/FONT]


[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif] Acceleration up to 300 gs. Macross type mechs. Prolong is developed. Short range jump drives, travel to other solar systems is every day thing. [/FONT]


[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]Early FTL: Small Scale; HS 1-3; Top Shunt 20-30[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]Late FTL: Medium Scale; HS 4; Top Shunt 40[/FONT]




[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]TL 20: Dimensional Age [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif] Personal shields, force field armor/weapons, Holograms are physical, Early space bridges, Transformers[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif] Minbari, Goa'uld, mid-range jump drives, full gravitic drives with acceleration in the 100s of gs up to 1,000gs., Nanites and force fields integrated into crystals. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif] FTL: Huge Scale; HS7; Top Shunt 85[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif] Culture is a meritology based on what you contribute. You gain access to more powerful nanite swarms which give you most anything that you need, provided there are raw materials. Everyday people have a communal swarm for locations. [/FONT]


[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif] Advanced Nanotech – Personal force fields are made of nanite swarms. Physical holograms are as well. Force field/Nanite weapons available. Power armor is holographic.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif] Little in the way of individual objects. People have objects that morph into other objects. Everything is alive and intelligent. [/FONT]


[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]Early FTL: Medium Scale; HS 5; Top Shunt 55[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, sans-serif]Late FTL: Large Scale; HS 6; Top Shunt 65[/FONT]
 

GMMichael

Guide of Modos
So I am trying to figure out ideas for the next economies. On one hand you have 3d printing allowing you to produce nearly anything you want. On the other hand you have the rise of bitcoin digital currency that prevents any government or bank from controlling money. You have people moving out into asteroid belt and mining huge amounts of metals from there.

2 more cents, or bitcoins:

3D printing, of anything more useful than a wax replica of a toy elephant, should be considered expensive, slow, energy intensive (see expensive), and/or highly regulated. If not, it will lead directly to the extinction of everything.

Digital currency isn't a big deal; it's the same thing as debit cards. So apply the same rules that debit cards use: if the currency leaves one account it enters another, it requires charging interest if it isn't available, and a cabal of bankers decides just how much everyone is allowed to have. One sticking point: you can't have a cash reserve if there is no cash. So you might have government control of what each bank can call its "cash reserve."

Assumption: the government and banks cannot "control money." Fascinating concept, but it's a little vague. First decide if that means that interest rates, required reserves, or actual quantity are uncontrolled (or something else?). If money is completely uncontrolled, it will have limited value, so you can expect a lot of bartering and alternative currencies. Or maybe BitCoin Incorporated is the only controller. Guess what another name for BitCoin Inc. is then? The Owner of Everything.

Huge amounts of asteroid mining isn't a big deal, either. It's just another resource. Think of it as another continent for nations to exploit...or to fight over.
 


garrowolf

First Post
Actually 3d printing is already more advanced then that. GE is 3d printing thruster bells that are a lot less expensive than the old way to do it. People are making 3d printers that are faster and faster. They are "printing" buildings and are planning on a robot that will land on Mars or the Moon, convert the local dirt into a kind of concrete and print the colony buildings. They have printed food and even organ tissue. It is going to completely change the world. It will take all the incentive to ship manufacturing jobs overseas as the shipping costs will end up being the most expensive part of the process. They are printing large car parts to build on demand instead of over producing like they do now. They are starting to have goods created on demand instead of creating huge runs.
In the future they are forecasting that it will cause a great deal of local independence. A lot of manufacturing jobs will come back to the US. People will be able to print everything we normally buy out of dollar stores fairly soon. They are making these printers faster and faster. They are building printers that are able to create objects with multiple materials.
We will probably end up with a small 3d plastic printer in every home similar to how most people have a paper printer. Shops would have more specialized printers creating most objects that we use or parts that can be put together. Then you would have huge printers creating huge objects like railroad car parts. I've worked security at a railroad manufacturing plant and changing the configuration for different parts is a major difficulty. Most businesses would have a few of them.
Oh and most of the 3d printing world is open source. You can even print parts to build another 3d printer!
The materials will be interesting. They are working on a crop that can be used in the printers to print plastic parts so that 3rd world countries can raise a crop, create the paste, put it in the printer, and create all the things that they need. It will greatly change the lives of 3rd world nations.
They are even working on new types of "plastics" that can be broken back down using an enzyme to print something else. This will be a huge benefit in space. They are working on a 3d printer for zero g so that they don't have to carry all the back up parts that they normally have. If they can break it back down it would be even better (plus it would be a source of mean pranks!).
They can print with several powdered metals that were originally created for jewelry creation. these can be used in the home as well. They have created inks that are conductive to be able to write out a circuit board. So we will be printing those in a few years. People will be able to get computer parts printed at a local shop.
Certain designs will be patented but they will be the focus of torrent sites. Patent laws may stop a shop from creating something but a person could make something in their own shop.
As you can see 3d printing is a huge interest of mine. A goal in the future for me is to own a 3d printer shop!

After 3d printing we will move into nanite assemblers.
 

garrowolf

First Post
I think that we will eventually have nanite swarms that follow us around and create objects when we need them instead of having permanent objects. But I think that is very far in our future!
 

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