I was having this conversation yesterday with a friend about the state of RPGs.  With no data to back it up, I think Erik is most likely right.  CCGs, Minis and even board games seem ascendant.  The basic rules of most rpgs are daunting for younger players, and there is still a stigma associated with role-playing.  Why play pen-and-paper when you can play with 10,000 of your closest friends online?  Plus, the sticker price for even the core D&D books being well over $100 at retail, it's an expensive hobby to boot.  
The market is also flooded with so many supplements and add-ons. It's overwhelming to newbs.
				
			The market is also flooded with so many supplements and add-ons. It's overwhelming to newbs.